This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Most of the major conferences are taking the night off on Thursday, however, we have one big-time battle on tap. Here are my predictions for the marquee game of the night, as well as another intriguing matchup on Thursday's college hoops slate.
Maryland 
at Illinois 
The Terrapins have assembled a quality resume up to this point, winning 14 of 19 games. On paper, the team has four quality wins, though they are of the 'B' variety, per KenPom. Home wins against Ohio State, UCLA and Nebraska, are solid, though they don't compare to the other challenges Maryland failed to conquer, losing on the road to Purdue and Oregon, for example. The Terps are still on track to go dancing, but they can't afford many more missteps or there's a decent chance they won't make the cut.
The Fighting Illini also have a great resume, one with a bit more luster than Thursday's opponent. Illinois has many quality wins, including several 'A'-type wins, such as victories over Wisconsin, Missouri, Oregon (road) and Indiana (road). Unlike many other teams that are simply trying to hear their name on Selection Sunday, Illinois has set itself up to earn a high seed if it can sustain its current level of play.
Thanks to its balanced nature, Illinois will be a tough out when the tournament rolls around. The Illini rank in the top 20 in the nation in offensive and defensive efficiency, and they also rank in the top 30 in rebounding percentage at both ends of the court. These strengths have largely carried through the conference season, and Illinois sports a top-two rebounding ranking among all Big Ten teams. It is second-best in defensive efficiency and sixth-best in offense.
Maryland also plays a balanced brand of basketball, though not quite up to the level of Illinois. Offensively, the Terrapins have the eighth-best efficiency rating in the Big Ten during league play, and they have a similar or lower standing in several categories, such as effective field goal percentage, turnovers, rebounding, and free-throw attempts. At the same time, Illinois has played among the best defensively, sporting the second-best defensive efficiency rating in the conference. It ranks first in rebounding, free-throw attempts allowed, and two-point field goal percentage allowed. Additionally, the Illini are holding Big Ten opponents to 46 percent on shots inside the arc and under 30 percent beyond it, yielding the second-best effective field goal percentage allowed.
The Terps are better when playing defense, ranking fourth in efficiency among Big Ten teams, but they will likely have a couple of issues on Thursday. First, Maryland relies on causing turnovers in order to get stops, which it's usually quite good at, posting the fourth-best defensive turnover percentage in the Big Ten. The problem is that Illinois has improved its ball handling as the season has progressed, recording the second-best offensive turnover percentage in the Big Ten, and the lowest offensive steal percentage. The other matchup issue for the Terps is their relative weakness on the defensive glass. Maryland has good defensive rebounding numbers for the whole season, but it ranks ninth in the Big Ten since the conference season started, while Illinois boasts the second-best offensive rebounding percentage.
College basketball can be unpredictable sometimes, but overall, Illinois matches up well against Thursday's opponent. In addition to the matchup advantages, the Illini have a better resume and have played more consistently at a higher level. For these reasons, I'm laying the points with the home team.
Additionally, I'm also taking the over. Aside from both teams having great offensive proficiency, both push the pace as much as any other team in the nation. Illinois ranks 11th in adjusted tempo and boasts the quickest pace among all Big Teams, while Maryland ranks 21st in average offensive possession length and has the fourth-quickest tempo among all 18 Big Ten teams. Also, it's worth noting that Illinois has allowed at least 80 points in its last two losses, so there's a good chance we see a high-scoring total, even if the road team ends up providing a majority of it.
College Basketball Best Bet: Illinois -8.5 and Over 157.5
San Francisco 
at Saint Mary's
This pick is all about the matchup.
When the Gaels have the ball on Thursday, their potent offensive attack will face a sub-par defense. Saint Mary's has played well offensively for most of the season, carrying an offensive efficiency rating that ranks in the top 40 of the nation, and it's only improved during the conference season. Among all 11 WCC teams, the Gaels rank first in offensive efficiency, turnover percentage, and offensive rebounding. They also rank second among all 364 D-1 teams in the latter category, so their talents on the glass cannot be overlooked. San Francisco, meanwhile, has played mediocre on defense. It ranks 75th in efficiency for the whole season, and seventh in the WCC, below the league average. It also ranks seventh in defensive rebounding, so the Gaels will likely get their usual helping of second-chance opportunities when these teams clash on Thursday.
When the Dons have the ball, they will have to overcome their most challenging defensive test yet. San Francisco isn't bad at scoring, fourth in efficiency in the WCC, but Saint Mary's defense is simply elite. This has been a signature quality for the Gaels under head coach Randy Bennett, and it once again rings true. Saint Mary's has finished with a defensive efficiency rating in the top 15 of the nation in the last four consecutive seasons. This year's squad ranks 32nd, but it undoubtedly has been the best in its league. During the conference season, the Gaels rank first among WCC teams in defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, and free-throw attempts allowed. It's also limiting league opponents to 41 percent on two-point shots and 29 percent on three-point shots, yielding the lowest effective field goal percentage allowed. The Dons' offense, for comparison, doesn't rank higher than fourth in any of the aforementioned categories. This might not be an issue against weaker teams, but it becomes a limitation when playing against a better defense. For example, San Francisco has played against two other teams that have a top-50 defensive efficiency rating, and it lost both games.
Overall, Saint Mary's is putting together another great season and is on track to hear its name called on Selection Sunday for the fourth straight year. The Gaels have won their last six games by double-digits, and I'm betting they'll make it a seventh after the dust settles on Thursday. I'm laying the points with the Gaels.
College Basketball Best Bet: Saint Mary's -10.5
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Illinois -8.5
- Maryland at Illinois - Over 157.5
- Saint Mary's -10.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
