This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
At long last, March has arrived. This is the penultimate Saturday before conference tournament action starts for the high majors, so we have a loaded slate. Here are my predictions for a trio of games that tip off later on.
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Cincinnati 
at Houston 
The Bearcats have shown signs of life in recent weeks by winning five of seven games after losing eight of its first 10 conference games. Their recent accomplishments include home wins against BYU and Baylor as they held two high-powered offensive teams to under 68 points.
The Cougars, on the other hand, have taken 20 of their last 21 matchup with their only blemish being a one-point OT loss to Texas Tech. It doesn't seem to matter where they play as they show up and suffocate opposing offenses having given up less than 66 in their last seven.
When Cincinnati have the ball Saturday, their attack will finally experience what it's like to face Houston's D with the country's third-highest efficiency rating. The Bearcats haven't faced a defense this elite since they hosted Kansas in mid-January, a matchup where they barely reached 40 points. They've marginally improved offensively throughout the season, yet still struggle in most areas at 10th in efficiency, 10th in effective field goal percentage, fourth in turnovers, 12th in offensive rebounding, 11th in two-point and three-point field goal percentages, and 15th in free-throw attempt rate since the Big 12 conference season began. Excluding Cincinnati's turnover stats, none of these rankings are good - particularly the latter. Houston's defense leads the league in several of these categories, though their fouling is one real weakness with the fourth-worst free-throw attempt rate allowed. And that may not be an issue as Cincinnati rarely get to the charity stripe at 355th in D-1 for free-throw attempt rate. And even if they do get the opportunity to take some foul shots, they've made under 67 percent on the season. All in all, it's hard to see many ways the Bearcats can score aside from making a large amount of difficult shots.
When Cincinnati win, it's usually on the strength of their defense having posted the 25th-best defensive rating in the nation. The Bearcats are stout in most areas with top-75 rankings in effective field goal percentage allowed, turnover percentage, free-throw attempt rate allowed, and two-point field goal percentage allowed. They're particularly solid at generating takeaways with the fourth-highest turnover percentage during the Big 12 campaign. Houston don't turn the ball over very often as they lead the league in offensive turnover percentage, but that doesn't mean Cincinnati still won't be able to cause a few Saturday. The Cougars are elite in most areas, though they are 12th in free-throw attempt rate and two-point field goal percentage in the Big 12.
In looking at how Saturday's matchup may unfold, it's also important to consider the styles of each team. And both prefer slowing the pace down as much as possible while leaning on their defense. If both get their way, there's a decent chance we'll see fewer than 60 possessions.
Considering each team's strengths and weaknesses and their united preference for the pace of play, I like our odds of seeing a low-scoring game. I'm going with the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 125.5
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Missouri 
at Vanderbilt 
The Tigers' offense is firing on all cylinders with at least 85 points across four appearances, including two where they eclipsed triple-digits. They lost their previous road outing against Arkansas, but have done well away from home by collecting wins at Florida, Mississippi State, and Georgia.
The Commodores have earned impressive victories, including Tennessee, Kentucky, and Texas A&M last time out. But they're far from perfect having lost eight of 13 conference games.
The key to this pick is Missouri's offensive attack and how it compares to Vanderbilt's defense. The Tigers have proven to be among the best scoring teams in the nation with the fifth-highest offensive efficiency rating and third-highest in the SEC after Auburn and Alabama. At the same time, Vanderbilt's defense lists the worst efficiency rating during conference play while allowing opponents to make 56 percent of two-point attempts (second-worst) and 40 percent of three-point attempts (second-worst), and yielding the worst effective field goal percentage in the conference. The other massive issue is that they've had issues getting stops without fouling at 268th in free-throw attempt rate allowed. The Tigers are at the opposite end of the spectrum getting to the charity stripe at the third-highest rate among all D-1 sides. If that's not enough, Missouri also have an edge in rebounding with the 80th-highest offensive rebounding percentage that's noticeably higher than Vanderbilt's 164th-ranked rebounding defense.
The matchup is relatively even at the other end. Since the conference season started, Vanderbilt has the seventh-highest offensive efficiency rating - a tick lower than Missouri's defense, which comes in at No. 6. Over the same period, the Commodores' offense matches the Tigers' defensive rankings in all the key shooting stats: effective, two-point, and three-point field goal percentages. Even though the matchup appears even, the most important detail is perhaps the fact Missouri's defense has a knack for causing chaos with the highest steal percentage among SEC teams and the second-highest turnover percentage. The Tigers aren't necessarily terrible at giving the ball away at fifth in the league in turnover percentage during conference play, yet their aggressiveness still poses a significant cause for concern. According to KenPom data, Vanderbilt's offense production is more correlated to turnover percentage than effective field goal percentage, making this category much more critical than usual.
Sometimes it's tough to go against an upstart home team, but in this case Missouri appear to have all the necessary tools to get the job done. I'm taking the Tigers in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Missouri -2.5
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Arizona State 
at Utah 
The Sun Devils' season has been a disaster since early December having dropped 14 of 19 games. And now they're dealing with significant roster attrition. BJ Freeman, the team's leading scorer (with 13.7 points per game), was booted from the team after the Feb. 18 game for "conduct detrimental to the team". More recently, five-star freshman Jayden Quaintance suffered an injury against Kansas State and has already been ruled out for Saturday per coach Bobby Hurley. This absence is rather significant as Quiantance was the team's leading rebounder and Arizona State were already among the worst rebounding teams in the Big 12. He also led the team in two-point baskets, two-point field goal percentage, and blocks to leave the team without its best interior player.
Utah recently fired head coach Craig Smith, so the home team has experienced its own share of issues. That being said, their attack faces a favorable matchup. At first glance, the Utes' 12th-ranked offensive efficiency appears evenly matched against the Sun Devils' 11th-ranked defensive efficiency, though the situation quickly changes when digging into the numbers. Utah are far from the best three-point shooting side, but they make up for it with strong interior scoring with the conference's fourth-highest offensive rebounding percentage, third-highest free-throw attempt rate, and sixth-highest two-point field goal percentage at 51 percent. These are all substantially better than Arizona State's defense at 14th in defensive rebounding, 10th in free-throw attempt rate, and 12th in two-point defense that gives up 52 percent. The mismatch in the paint is already evident, and that's before we account for the fact the Sun Devils will be without their best frontcourt player.
In the other direction, Arizona State haven't fared much better. They offense sits 11th in efficiency among Big 12 teams, yet the numbers suggest they rely on long-range jump shots for most of their success. The Sun Devils list poor marks in most other areas with the fourth-worst turnover and second-worst offensive rebounding percentages during the conference season. Arizona State have made under 51 percent of its two-point attempts - in line with the D-1 average - though Utah's defense is far superior in this area only conceding 46 percent of shots inside the arc, the 26th-best mark in the nation. The Utes haven't been great defensively overall at 15th in efficiency during league play, but they clearly know how to prevent easy shots from close range.
One intangible to consider is Utah's stark home-and-road splits. Most teams seemingly play better at home, yet this seems even more true for the Utes who've won six of eight home conference matchups over the likes of BYU, Cincinnati, Kansas, and Kansas State where averaging 71 points and allowing 70. But when they go on the road, they post 63 and give up 77. Considering Utah's usual enhanced performance at the Huntsman Center and the Sun Devils' various issues, I like the Utes' odds of winning comfortably on Saturday.
College Basketball Best Bet: Utah -7.5
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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Cincinnati at Houston - Under 125.5
- Missouri -2.5
- Utah -7.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
