This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Every Saturday this time of year brings us a stacked college hoops slate, but this one might take the cake with multiple contenders facing off against each other and tight battles lined up throughout the day. Going for my fifth straight slate with profitable picks, I present my predictions for three games tipping off later on.
Duke 
at Wake Forest
The Blue Devils recently earned the distinction of having the best overall efficiency rating per KenPom, moving just two-tenths ahead of Auburn. Duke has come out on top in 12 straight - the nation's longest active winning streak - dominating nearly all of their opponents along the way. They now face their toughest test since traveling to SMU earlier this month. The current Blue Devil squad looks a bit different than last year, but it's worth noting they've lost their previous two road trips to Winston-Salem. The odds suggest this won't happen again, though that doesn't mean it won't be difficult.
The Demon Deacons have also played great basketball since the start of conference season by taking seven of eight games. They also defeated Michigan in November to give them a shot at an at-large bid if they can maintain their current level of play.
Wake Forest doesn't look like a great offensive team at first glance coming in at No. 166 in offensive efficiency, yet they've played substantially better the past month with the eighth-best rating among ACC teams and have performed above league average in several other key areas at seventh in effective field goal percentage and turnover percentage. Their best trait is perhaps the ability to draw contact by boasting the highest free-throw attempt rate in the ACC during league competition. There's no simple way to beat Duke's defense with the conference's best numbers in several categories, though the Demon Deacons appear to have the necessary tools to stay in the game.
The Blue Devils are also among the best offensive sides, but they'll have to face a stout Wake Forest defense that sits 30th in efficiency among all D-1 teams and third in the ACC. The good news for the home side is that they also excel in many other areas at third or better in the league in effective field goal percentage allowed, two-point field goal percentage allowed, blocks, and steals. Their best skill is the ability to cause havoc with the highest turnover percentage in the conference. Duke isn't a sloppy team by any means and this area might not be as handy compared to facing a weaker team, but it will take every trick in the book if Wake Forest wants to pull off an improbable upset.
Duke seems intent on earning a No. 1 seed come March, though that doesn't mean they won't lose again before Selection Sunday. The betting odds suggest they won't do so Saturday, but I believe Wake Forest will make them sweat it out . Given the large spread, I'm taking the points with the Demon Deacons.
College Basketball Best Bet: Wake Forest +11.5
Santa Clara 
at Oregon State 
The matchup is incredibly even, but a closer look reveals one team appears to have an advantage. Both teams are nearly identical on paper. For the season, Santa Clara ranks 43rd in offensive efficiency and 93rd on defense while Oregon State is 46th and 91st. However, the differences come into focus when we focus on more recent data and against comparable competition.
Since the conference season tipped off, Santa Clara sits fourth in offensive efficiency among WCC teams, with their best areas being offensive rebounding (fourth) and two-point field goal percentage (second). As it turns out, Oregon State's defense is also strong in both areas matching Santa Clara's rebounding rank and holding WCC opponents to under 52 percent, the third-best mark. The Beavers also offer the sixth-best defensive efficiency rating in the conference, a solid standing and not far off from the Broncos offensively.
When going in the other direction, we see a similar situation. Oregon State and Santa Clara are nearly tied in the efficiency category at third for the former's offense and second for the latter's defense. That said, there are significant differences in a few key areas. First, the Broncos seldom cause turnovers with the league's lowest percentage. In contrast, the Beavers have done a good job at protecting the ball from conference foes with the third-best offensive turnover percentage. Similarly, Oregon State has dominated the paint the last month by making almost 60 percent of two-point attempts, the highest mark in the WCC. Over the same period, Santa Clara has been vulnerable in this area by giving up almost 57 percent. While we're at it, I should note Oregon State also ranks first in the WCC for effective field goal percentage and free-throw attempts during conference play.
Oregon State have only lost one home matchup, a nailbiter against Oregon. The Beavers dominated a significant portion of the game, with KenPom giving them a 75 percent chance of winning with under nine minutes remaining before ultimately losing by three. The Beavers already list a couple of resume-building wins at home over Gonzaga and UC Irvine, so they appear poised to earn another one on Saturday. I'm taking the home team here.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oregon State -2.5
Cincinnati 
at BYU 
Earlier in the week, I faded Cincinnati when they hosted Texas Tech for a couple of key reasons, both of which apply again for Saturday's matchup.
As I wrote in my Tuesday article, the Bearcats have played at an elite defensive level while their offense is a major problem ranking 132nd in efficiency. They were able to get past weaker opponents during the non-conference slate, yet they've struggled mightily against Big 12 competition sitting last in offensive efficiency and three-point field goal percentage and bottom-four for effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding, and free-throw attempts. Cincinnati have played seven conference games and only scored more than 70 once during their latest 10-point defeat to Texas Tech. At their worst, the Bearcats were limited to under 50 against Baylor and Kansas, making their offense a critical liability even with a solid defense.
The Cougars' defense have performed closer to the league average at 67th in efficiency for the season and noticeably solid in the paint with the nation's second-highest defensive rebounding percentage while holding opponents to under 48 percent on two-pointers. As such, they appear well-equipped to guard the visiting team on Saturday.
At the other end, BYU is at its best ranking fifth in offensive efficiency since the conference season started by making a league-best 57 percent of shots inside the arc and over 34 percent from deep while yielding the second-best effective field goal percentage. They're also above-average in other offensive areas while matching or outranking Cincinnati's defense in turnovers, rebounding, and free-throw attempts.
On paper, Cincinnati's defense has played at an elite level by recording the ninth-best defensive efficiency rating in the nation, but it's important to note they haven't performed to the same standard against Big 12 clubs at sixth in defensive efficiency during league play and eighth or lower in turnovers and rebounding. Cincinnati have produced impressive performances against inferior competition, yet they've struggled against tougher opponents having played four teams with a top-30 offensive efficiency rating and losing all four. And BYU enters Saturday 31st in this category.
Given the Bearcats' substantial offensive struggles and the Cougars' offensive potential, I like our chances of seeing the home side cover. Cincinnati's defense may step up and prove me wrong, but I believe BYU's scoring abilities and home-court advantage will help get the job done.
College Basketball Best Bet: BYU -6.5
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Wake Forest +11.5
- Oregon State -2.5
- BYU -6.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
