This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
There aren't many teams on Friday's college hoops slate, but luckily, some high-profile names will still be in action, as the Big Ten and Mountain West will showcase some of their best. Here are my predictions for a trio of games on Friday evening.
Getting ready for March Madness? For the latest in the projected field of 68 for 2025 NCAA Tournament, head to the RotoWire Bracketology page.
Purdue 
at Illinois
As predicted in my article from this past Tuesday, the Boilermakers dropped an avalanche of points on Rutgers, putting up 100 in its easy win and hitting our over bet in the process. Now, with a win on Friday, they have an opportunity to earn a top-four seed in the Big Ten Tournament, which would grant them a double-bye.
The Boilermakers have reached this point primarily by putting up the best offensive numbers in the Big Ten. Since the conference season tipped off, they have led the league in efficiency, two-point, three-point, and effective field goal percentages. They also rank sixth in turnover and rebounding percentages, giving them an even higher likelihood of scoring on each possession. The Fighting Illini are generally excellent on defense, logging the fourth-best efficiency rating during league play and also boasting top-four rankings in effective field goal percentage allowed, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate. The one thing that they don't do is generate takeaways, ranking last in the Big Ten and near the bottom among all D-1, 353rd to be exact. They also rank 358th in steal percentage, further underscoring their relatively conservative but successful defensive strategy.
Illinois is also highly productive at the other end of the court, ranking fourth in offensive efficiency during the Big Ten conference season; however, it has one critical flaw, one that is likely to be fatal. The Illini have struggled to make long-range shots, yet they continually hoist them up without much discretion. For the whole season, Illinois has made under 31 percent of three-point attempts (325th), and this number has actually gotten worse in recent months, making under 30 percent against Big Ten opponents, the worst in the league.
A poor shooting percentage isn't the end of the world if you're a team like Michigan State that astutely focuses on attacking the rim, but that's not the case here. Instead, Illinois attempts three-pointers at the 29th-highest rate in the nation and the second-highest in the Big Ten. One might think that the coaching staff can't be this stubborn and unwilling to adjust to the facts, but they would be mistaken. In fact, Illinois just took 37 three-point attempts in its last game despite making 31 percent (on 29 attempts) and 7 percent (on 26 attempts) in its previous two games. Illinois is ultra-talented, as most college hoops fans are well aware by now, but it's hard to imagine how this game plan will succeed long-term without having better shooters. During the conference season, Illinois is 9-1 in games where it makes at least 27 percent of its three-point attempts, but it's 2-7 when shooting under that number. On a related note, Purdue has had an outstanding perimeter defense, holding Big Ten opponents to 31 percent, the second-best mark in the league. Defensively, the Boilermakers also rank fifth in efficiency and second in turnover percentage, giving them a proficient defense overall.
Given Purdue's balanced and elite offensive attack and Illinois' questionable offensive game plan, I like the Boilermakers' odds of winning on Friday night. There's a chance Illinois gets hot from beyond the arc and proves me wrong in this game, but ultimately, the numbers speak for themselves. I'm taking the Boilermakers in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Purdue +4
New to the world of college basketball betting? Review our college basketball betting promos to get the best deals for new customers.
UNLV 
at New Mexico
The Runnin' Rebels have been without their star point guard and best offensive player, Dedan Thomas Jr., but they've still managed to roll along and win their last three games. They've done this with a stout defense, holding the previous three opponents to 64 points per game, including victories against Nevada and San Diego State. Even with Thomas Jr. playing most of the season, UNLV has underachieved offensively, ranking 142nd in offensive efficiency, which is much worse than its defensive performance, ranking 59th.
Not to be outdone, the Lobos have also played exceptionally well on defense throughout the year, recording the 23rd-best efficiency rating. They've performed even better during the conference season, boasting the best defensive rating in the league and logging top-three rankings in effective field goal percentage allowed and turnover, rebounding, block, and steal percentages. This team is outstanding defensively in just about every area.
UNLV's offense looked sharp in its recent win against San Diego State, but it's worth noting that it shot abnormally well from long range. The Rebels made 12-of-24 shots from beyond the arc, only the second time this season they made 12 three-pointers, tying their season-high. UNLV has made just 33 percent of three-point attempts against MWC opponents, the fourth-worst mark in the league. Nex Mexico is holding conference foes to 33 percent on three-point attempts, the third-best mark, making it even less likely that the Rebels have the same production from long range.
At the other end of the court, New Mexico's offense has been productive even though it might not be the best in the league. The Lobos rank fourth in efficiency during league play and hold top-five rankings in several key areas, including effective field goal percentage, turnovers, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate. These are great standings, although Friday's opponent can make the same claim defensively in this matchup. In the same period, UNLV's defense ranks in the top five in the aforementioned areas.
UNLV has flown under the radar in recent weeks, winning six of seven games. The Rebels have held their opponents to under 72 points in all seven games and limited them to under 62 points in five of them. Considering this and the fact that the Lobos have the best defensive efficiency rating during the Mountain West Conference season, I like our odds of seeing a low-scoring game. I'm on the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 146.5
Looking for a sportsbook to get started with? Find the best college basketball betting sites and apps for 2025 March Madness.
Colorado State 
at Boise State 
With a win on Friday, the Rams will clinch at least the second-best record in the Mountain West. They have won 15 of 19 conference games by playing a balanced brand of basketball, ranking in the top 60 of KenPom's efficiency charts at both ends of the court.
Offensively, Colorado State has the second-highest efficiency rating during league play, mostly thanks to its elite shooting numbers. Against MWC opponents, the Rams have made 57 percent of two-point attempts (second) and 39 percent of three-point attempts (first), yielding the highest effective field goal percentage in the league. They also rank fifth in offensive rebounding, giving themselves a second chance on a decent number of occasions. Boise State has also played well at this end, sporting the fourth-best defensive efficiency rating in the MWC, though it doesn't quite fully measure up to Colorado State's offense. The Broncos are the best on the defensive glass, leading the league in defensive rebounding. Outside of that area, they rank fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed and seventh in turnovers. Not awful, but not spectacular, either.
Defensively, the Rams will meet their match on Friday. Colorado State ranks third in defensive efficiency during the MW Conference season, equalling Boise State's offense, which also ranks third in efficiency. A similar theme echoes in other areas, with both teams ranking among the top four of the MWC in effective field goal percentage, free-throw attempt rate, and rebounding. The latter is essential to note because Boise State often enjoys a massive advantage in this area, boasting the highest offensive rebounding percentage among MWC teams. Coincidentally, Colorado State has the seventh-highest defensive rebounding percentage in the nation, so the Broncos will likely see fewer second-chance opportunities on Friday. Boise State's other strength is inside scoring, where it's made 57 percent of two-point attempts against MWC foes, an excellent mark, but it is again countered by Colorado State, which has held conference opponents to under 48 percent, the third-best mark in the league. The Broncos have made under 32 percent of their three-point attempts this season (279th), so they might struggle to score if their close-range shots aren't falling.
Overall, this matchup is incredibly even. Both teams are hot and have played at a high level down the stretch. Given these facts and how Colorado State matches up against the home team, I believe this game will come down to the last couple of possessions. For these reasons, I'm taking the points with the Rams.
College Basketball Best Bet: Colorado State +5.5
Think your team has what it takes to win it all in March Madness? Find College Basketball National Championship Odds and other college basketball futures bets across multiple sportsbooks on RotoWire.
Friday College Basketball Best Bets
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Purdue +4
- UNLV at New Mexico - Under 146.5
- Colorado State +5.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
