This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Friday's college hoops slate is short on quantity but makes up for it with quality. At least a few potential NCAA Tournament teams will be out on the court, playing in games that could make a difference on Selection Sunday. Coming off a 3-0 sweep with yesterday's action, here are my predictions for a trio of games on Friday evening.
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UCLA 
at Purdue
The Bruins endured a four-game skid in early January, but they've been on the rise ever since. UCLA has won nine of its last 11 games, including coveted victories over Wisconsin and Michigan State. Now, the Bruins head back on the road, where they had mixed results during their last trip to the Midwest. They allowed 83 points in a loss at Illinois before rebounding to win at Indiana, 72-68. Friday's matchup marks their most challenging test since the loss to Illinois.
The Boilermakers, meanwhile, are currently mired in their own four-game skid. They had only lost back-to-back games on one occasion before this, when they played Texas A&M and Auburn in consecutive games, so this is unusual for them. To be fair, three of the last four were played on the road, and three of the losses came against Michigan, Wisconsin, and Michigan State, the top three teams in the conference as of Thursday evening.
Purdue's offense struggled in its last two games, but its biggest weakness is usually its defense. The Boilermakers are exceptional at causing havoc, leading the Big Ten in steal percentage during conference play, but it's fifth in efficiency. This is slightly better than UCLA's offensive ranking within the conference, eighth in efficiency, though the Bruins have two ways of beating the Boilermakers. First, UCLA is exceptional at protecting the ball, ranking second in the Big Ten in turnover percentage during league play. This is critical because KenPom data suggests that Purdue's defensive success relies extensively on takeaways, as the number of turnovers significantly correlates to its production. This is true to some extent for most teams but even more so for Purdue. The other area where UCLA can take advantage is inside the paint. Purdue has been highly vulnerable on the interior, allowing Big Ten opponents to make 59 percent of two-point attempts, the second-worst mark in the league. It also has the lowest block percentage in the conference, further underscoring its lack of a physical presence in the paint. UCLA has made 53 percent of two-point attempts this season, the 118th-highest mark, so this is another area that the Bruins can exploit.
At the other end of the court, the Boilermakers have established themselves as one of the best offensive teams in the nation, recording the 11th-highest rating among all D-1 teams. They have performed just as well during the Big Ten conference season, logging the second-highest rating. The Bruins can make a similar claim defensively, ranking 15th in efficiency for the whole season; however, they haven't been at the top during league play, ranking seventh in the conference. Similar to the home team's defensive weakness, UCLA has also shown itself to be vulnerable at close range. The Bruins have allowed Big Ten opponents to make 54 percent of shots inside the arc, 12th in the conference, which is what you like to see if you're Purdue. The Boilermakers have made a league-leading 57 percent of two-point attempts against conference foes, making this a major area of concern if you're the defense. UCLA's best skill is forcing takeaways, the fourth-highest percentage in the nation, although Purdue ranks 91st in offensive turnovers, somewhat mitigating the Bruins' best defensive edge.
Given Purdue's return home amid its worst skid of the season, I believe it will be more locked in than usual, desperate for a win. Any sports fan knows that needing to win doesn't mean it will happen, but when you have an exceptionally skilled team like Purdue, sometimes the extra motivation can make a difference. UCLA's last two losses came within five points, so I'm reluctant to lay the points in this spot. Instead, I like our odds of seeing a high-scoring game. I'm on the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 140.5
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Kent State 
at Akron 
The Zips have separated themselves at the top of the Mid American conference, winning 14 of 15 conference games while displaying league-best marks at both ends of the court. Akron boasts the highest offensive efficiency rating and second-highest defensive rating among all 12 MAC teams, both for the whole season and the conference season exclusively. Last weekend, they were humbled in a road loss at Ohio, and they responded by dropping 87 points at Ball State. Now, Akron returns home to try and clinch at least a tie for the regular season MAC championship.
The Golden Flashes, on the other hand, have put together a respectable season, but they appear much more vulnerable than the home team. Kent State has lost six of 15 conference games, with its offense playing inconsistently throughout the season. It ranks 180th in offensive efficiency and has terrible shooting numbers. The Golden Flashes have made 51 percent of two-point attempts (174th) and 30 percent of three-point attempts (334th), yielding an effective field goal percentage that ranks 272nd. Given these facts, it's logical to see that Kent State relies on second-chance opportunities for its production. The Golden Flashes have the highest offensive rebounding percentage in the MAC, so this is a regular part of their game plan. The problem on Friday is that Akron leads the league in defensive rebounding during the conference season. The Zips also lead the league in two-point defense, holding MAC opponents to under 48 percent, leaving the Golden Flashes with few scoring options. When these two teams previously played at Kent State, the Zips held the Golden Flashes to their second-lowest offensive rebounding percentage of the whole season.
Kent State is much better when playing in the other direction, boasting the highest defensive rating in the MAC during league play. The only problem is that Akron is also better at this side of the court, matching the road team with the top offensive rating in the same period. Kent State's defense has the edge in turnovers and rebounding. However, Akron's offense has it beat in effective field goal percentage and two-point field goal percentage, making a league-leading 61 percent.
Akron has not lost at home this season. It has won every home game by at least seven points, averaging a plus-13 point differential. The Zips were held to a season-low at home against Northern Illinois in their 73-63 win last time they were at Rhodes Arena, but they had scored at least 80 points in all six home conference games before that.
Admittedly, I went back and forth between taking the over or the spread. Ultimately, I landed on the spread, mainly because I'm not so sure that Kent State will hold up its end of the bargain in pushing a point total over. The Golden Flashes have made 30 percent of three-point attempts, 334th in the nation, and it's going against a defense that holds conference opponents to league-best marks in effective, three-point, and two-point field goal percentages. If the long-range shots don't fall, it's going to be hard for Kent State to keep pace. Akron was held to under 79 points at home for the first time all season against NIU after averaging 89 points per home game. I'm betting the Zips will play up to their usual standard and pull away in the second half. I'm laying the points with Akron.
College Basketball Best Bet: Akron -4.5
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Nevada 
at UNLV 
This pick hinges on the status of UNLV point guard Dedan Thomas Jr., who has missed the last two games with a shoulder injury. The latest reports suggest he still isn't practicing and doesn't appear close to returning, but his status for Friday has not been confirmed, either. Thomas led the team in minutes and possession usage rate prior to the injury; clearly the head of the team. The sophomore point guard was selected to the second team All-Mountain West at the end of last season and was one of 10 named to the recent preseason All-MW team, so his status for Friday's game is critical.
Offensively, UNLV sorely missed him in its home loss to Colorado State, scoring just 53 points. However, it rebounded in its last game, scoring 77 points at San Jose State. The win was nice, but it's worth noting that the Spartans have lost 12 of 18 conference games and rank 168th in overall efficiency and 221st in defensive efficiency, so this wasn't the most revealing test. Even with Thomas playing all but two games this season, offensively, the Rebels have performed below the league average. They rank seventh in the MWC in efficiency (out of 11 teams) and 159th for the whole season, giving them an underwhelming attack despite having one of the most respected point guards in the conference.
When these two teams previously clashed in Reno back at the start of the month, Nevada won 71-65, in part thanks to causing 15 turnovers, tied for the second-most giveaways that UNLV has had all season. This was no accident, as Nevada has proven itself to be the most aggressive defensive team in the Mountain West during conference play, boasting the highest turnover percentage in the league. In looking at UNLV's roster, it's quickly apparent and logical that Thomas had the second-lowest turnover rate on the team. Brooklyn Hicks, who has started in place of Thomas the past two games, has a turnover rate that's over 50 percent higher, so it wouldn't be surprising if Nevada again has a field day in generating takeaways. The Wolfpack defense also outranks the Rebels' offense in efficiency, rebounding, and two-point field goal percentage, giving it three more critical advantages in this matchup.
Defensively, the Rebels have performed relatively better, ranking 65th in efficiency, which is nearly identical to Nevada's offensive performance, 66th in efficiency. The matchup at this side of the court is tight across the board in many stats, although Nevada appears to edge it out in several instances. Specifically, the Wolfpack's offense has equal or better rankings than UNLV's defense during the Mountain West conference season in the following: efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnovers, rebounding, free-throw attempts, and two-point field goal percentage.
If UNLV has its leader back on Friday, I would pass on this game, but Nevada has the appropriate skill set to exploit Thomas' absence if he misses another game, which appears all but inevitable at this point. Considering Nevada's balanced attack and UNLV's compromised starting lineup, I like the Wolfpack's odds of getting the job done on the road. I'm taking Nevada.
College Basketball Best Bet: Nevada -1.5
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Friday College Basketball Best Bets
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- UCLA at Purdue Over 140.5
- Akron -3.5
- Nevada -1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
