From Madison Square Garden, we've got the Jimmy V Classic headlining Tuesday's college hoops slate. Additionally, we also have some Big Ten teams going at it. Going for my fifth straight profitable day, I present my predictions for a trio of games on Tuesday evening.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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BYU 
vs. Clemson
The weakest part of this matchup belongs to Clemson's defense, which ranks 46th in adjusted efficiency. This is welcome news for BYU, which boasts the nation's sixth-highest offensive efficiency rating. The Cougars play at a high level across most offensive categories, making them difficult to match up against for any defense. BYU has made almost 58 percent of two-point attempts and nearly 37 percent of three-point attempts, yielding an effective field goal percentage that ranks 37th. They also rarely give the ball away, ranking 19th in turnovers.
Clemson's offense, meanwhile, will face a more formidable challenge, as BYU ranks 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The tricky part with attacking BYU's defense is that the Cougars don't seem to have many holes. They rank in the top 85 teams in effective field goal percentage allowed, defensive rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate allowed. Another note that could come into play is that Clemson hasn't been particularly dangerous from long range, making under 33 percent of its three-point attempts (199th).
The Tigers will likely put up a fight in the early part of the game, but I like BYU's chances of wearing out Clemson's defense and building a lead in the second half. I'm laying the points with the Cougars in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: BYU -7.5
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Illinois 
at Ohio State 
The greatest advantage in this matchup belongs to Illinois, which is proving to have a potent offensive attack. The Fighting Illini boast the eighth-highest adjusted offensive efficiency rating among D-1 teams, and they're facing an Ohio State defense that ranks 49th. A closer look at the Buckeyes reveals they're particularly weak at guarding the paint, allowing opponents to make almost 52 percent of two-point attempts (181st). The Fighting Illini, as it turns out, are among the best at inside scoring, making over 60 percent of shot attempts inside the arc (22nd), so this is an area they can likely exploit.
This matchup doesn't get any easier for Ohio State at the other end of the court, where the Buckeyes' offense (38th in efficiency) will have to take on an Illini defense that ranks 17th in efficiency. This is particularly daunting because Illinois has been outstanding at stopping Ohio State's two best strengths. Specifically, the Buckeyes have made over 65 percent of two-point attempts, the best among all D-1 teams, and they have the 47th-highest free-throw attempt rate while converting almost 78 percent from the charity stripe. Unfortunately for the home team, Illinois has the third-best free-throw attempt rate allowed in the nation, and it's holding opponents to 45 percent from inside the arc (25th). For good measure, it's worth noting that Illinois ranks third in the nation in average height, per KenPom.
I always try to be cautious when picking a road team in a conference game, but in this case, the Illini appear to be the better bet. They have better overall numbers and excel in areas where the Buckeyes are weak. I'm backing the Fighting Illini in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Illinois -3.5
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Florida 
vs. Connecticut 
Admittedly, I faded UConn in its game against Kansas, in part because I wasn't yet sold on its new-and-improved defense. Well, all they've done the last five games is hold each opponent to under 72 points, a span that includes games against Arizona, Illinois and Kansas. Not bad. Now, the Huskies will get another strong challenge in the form of Florida.
The Gators' offense has an excellent efficiency rating (24th), though they are proving somewhat one-dimensional. They have made just 27 percent of three-point attempts, one of the worst marks in the nation (342nd), and they are somewhat sloppy with the ball, ranking 268th in offensive turnover percentage. Florida has overcome these issues with elite offensive rebounding (fourth in the nation) and strong inside scoring (88th in two-point field goal percentage), but that might not be the case on Tuesday. UConn is also exceptional in these two areas on defense. The Huskies rank 34th in defensive rebounding percentage and 16th in two-point field goal percentage (44 percent allowed), making this a very problematic matchup for the Gators.
The matchup is a bit closer at the other end of the court, where Florida's defense outranks UConn's offense in efficiency (11th to 16th); however, the Gators again have a couple of highly concerning areas. First, it seldom causes takeaways, ranking 289th in defensive turnover percentage. Second, it has trouble with fouling, ranking 276th in free-throw attempt rate. Neither of these areas will automatically cause a team to lose a game, but in a game where every edge and advantage could make a difference, they are still worth noting.
If Florida were better at shooting or taking care of the ball, this pick might be different, but based on the data in front of me, I have to go with UConn. I'm rolling with the Huskies.
College Basketball Best Bet: UConn -4.5
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Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- BYU -7.5
- Illinois -3.5
- UConn -4.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
