Friday's college hoops slate is low on quantity, but it certainly makes up for it in quality. Here are my predictions for three select games, featuring a few prominent teams and well-known teams.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Gonzaga 
vs. Kentucky 
The Wildcats have excellent efficiency numbers, ranking in the top 25 nationally in offense and defense, though the stats don't necessarily reflect the on-court results. Kentucky has played against three teams that will likely make the NCAA Tournament, and the Wildcats lost all three, with two coming by seven-plus points.
The Bulldogs, meanwhile, have already defeated teams like Oklahoma and Alabama, both by double-digit margins, providing tangible positive results to consider.
With the teams close in several categories, I'll highlight a few discrepancies that may sway the outcome. First, Gonzaga is much more aggressive on defense, boasting a turnover percentage that ranks 33rd in the nation. Kentucky, comparatively, seldom takes the ball away, ranking 262nd in defensive turnover percentage. Second, the Bulldogs are a bit stronger on the offensive glass, ranking 31st in rebounding percentage compared to 83rd for the Wildcats.
The spread isn't as small as I'd like, but even still, I gotta take the better offensive team, the same one that's more likely to generate turnovers. I'm going with the Bulldogs in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Gonzaga -5.5
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Cincinnati 
vs. Xavier 
Cincinnati may have an elite defense, but its offense is by far the weakest link in this game. The Bearcats rank 219th in adjusted efficiency and rank outside the top 200 teams in turnover percentage, offensive rebounding, and free throw percentage. With such poor offensive numbers, it's hard to score against any opponent, and Xavier isn't terrible defensively. The Musketeers rank 71st in adjusted efficiency and rank inside the top 125 teams in defensive turnover percentage, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate allowed.
Offensively, Xavier hasn't been great at scoring inside the paint, but it's among the best at outside scoring. The Musketeers have made 38 percent of their three-point attempts, which collectively account for over 41 percent of their total points, the 15th-highest mark in the nation. This is especially noteworthy in this matchup, as Cincinnati has performed at an elite level in the paint, holding opponents to 42 percent. This kind of defensive strength is excellent in the long term, but carries less weight when facing a team intent on shooting from beyond the arc.
Anything is possible with a team that relies on the three-point shot, but against a team with poor offensive numbers, I like our odds of seeing Xavier come away with the win. I'm taking the Musketeers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Xavier -1.5
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Notre Dame 
at TCU 
I often like to highlight significant weak links in matchups, but in this case, it's worth noting the most elite link. In this matchup, that distinction belongs to TCU's defense, which ranks 15th in adjusted efficiency and held Michigan to 67 points, easily the best defensive performance so far against the mighty Wolverines. Aside from the close loss to the current number one team on KenPom's rankings, TCU has more recently defeated Florida and Wisconsin in back-to-back days, giving us a team that's riding a hot streak.
This doesn't bode well for the visiting team, as Notre Dame has struggled offensively against competitive teams, being held to under 64 points against Ohio State, Kansas, and Houston.
At the other end of the court, the Fighting Irish are a little bit better, ranking 53rd in defensive efficiency, although they don't cause many takeaways (215th in turnover percentage), and they tend to foul (194th in free-throw attempt rate allowed). The Horned Frogs weren't as sharp with the ball early in the season, but they scored 84 points in their win against Florida and 74 points in their win against Wisconsin, so they are clearly playing better compared to the start of the season.
I wouldn't be surprised if the game is tied at halftime or if Notre Dame has a slight lead, but I'm betting TCU's defense will clamp down as the game wears on, allowing the Horned Frogs to pull away. I'm laying the points with the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: TCU -7
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Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Gonzaga -5.5
- Xavier -1.5
- TCU -7
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
