This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
There are nine games on Wednesday's slate. The season is winding down, and whether it is injuries or changing coaching philosophies, some teams' lineups are looking much different. That creates an opportunity to find value at some positions, as well as realizing who to avoid at others. Ahead, we will look at players who are good values due to unexpected playing time, as well as some who are springing toward the season's finish line.
GUARD
J.J. Barea, DAL vs. NYK ($11) -Deron Williams is without a timetable to return, and Barea will likely be the main beneficiary during his absence. Barea is averaging 31.1 fantasy points per game in the three contests Williams has missed already, and his familiarity with the rest of the regular rotation should continue to grow. That is 12.7 points higher than his season average. It should be noted that the Mavericks opted not to start Barea in their last game, choosing instead to go big with Raymond Felton at the point and Wesley Matthews at shoot guard. That was simply head coach Rick Carlisle toying around with different lineup options due to all the injuries the team is facing. Barea still had 18 points, 11 assists, one rebound, two steals and three triples in 26 minutes. Barea will have the potential to post quality statistics at nearly the floor price, which makes him one of the best values on the board.
Ricky Rubio, MIN vs. LAC ($30) - Rubio has put together one of the best, most efficient stretches of his career since the All-Star break. Poor shooting has been the trait that has kept him from moving into that next tier of elite guards for the majority of his career, but he has solved that problem of late. Specifically in his last nine games, Rubio is shooting 47 percent from the field and and averaging 15.0 points, 4.4 rebounds, 10.3 dimes, 2.7 steals and 1.8 triples per game. The field-goal percentage and three-point shooting have been the biggest surprises, and those numbers have contributed to an average of 39.6 fantasy points per game during that stretch. He is finally posting elite point guard numbers consistently, while his price has yet to catch up.
Guard to Avoid
Klay Thompson, GSW at UTA ($34) - The Jazz not only have one of the best frontcourt defenses in the league, but one of the best perimeter defenses as well. Over the last 10 games they are giving up the fewest fantasy points per game to both point guards and shooting guards. Thompson has been hot as of late, but stating that this matchup in Utah is unfavorable would be an understatement. Based on his stellar play, it may be a good time to fade the public and trust in Utah's stingy defense.
FORWARD
JaMychal Green, MEM vs. DEN ($15) - This play depends on the status of Zach Randolph, who is questionable due to an ankle injury. Green has started nine of the last 12 games for the Grizzlies, with his three non-starts occurring when Randolph took the court. Green has shown to be a quality player with high potential when given the opportunity this season, 11.9 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.8 assists in 28.3 minutes per game in 15 starts. The Grizzlies' depth is so thin at this point that they will need to play him more minutes than that average. Also, the Nuggets are giving up the third-most fantasy points per game to power forwards this season. Green has a good shot at outperforming his price given his likely usage and advantageous opponent, making him a pretty solid value play Wednesday.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL vs. PHO ($44) - The Greek Freak has arrived and we are all witnesses. On Tuesday, head coach Jason Kidd announced that Antetokounmpo would be the starting point guard for the Bucks next season, and that decision is based off of how well he has played it since the All-Star break. While his price has finally risen to the type of performance output he has been putting up, he is still a solid play Wednesday. He is coming off two subpar outings compared to his previous elite production, which should cool the public on picking him. However, this game sets up nicely for another triple-double hunt. The Suns are giving up the second-most points per game in the league, as well as the third-most fantasy points to small forwards. They also give up the second-most fantasy points to point guards, so no matter what metric you use, Antetokounmpo has a good matchup.
Forward to Avoid
Rudy Gay, SAC vs. WAS ($25) - The Wizards have given up the second-fewest fantasy points per game to small forwards over the last 10 games. Gay will be the next small forward to give it a go against them, and he has been slumping a bit recently, failing to score 30 fantasy points in his last seven games, averaging 22.7 per game during that span. He also has failed to reach 20 fantasy points in two of his last three games. Given his matchup and recent performance it would be wise to look elsewhere.
CENTER
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN vs LAC ($38) - Sometimes the answer is right in front of your eyes. Towns has somehow become even more of a beast lately after already surpassing the highest of expectations for his rookie season. He is averaging 45.1 fantasy points per game over his last six, which puts him near the top tier of players at all positions. During that time, he is averaging 25.0 points, 10.7 boards, 2.7 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.3 blocks and 0.5 triples in 37.9 minutes per game.
Center to Avoid
Greg Monroe, MIL vs PHO (22) - Perhaps the only real collateral damage from Antetokounmpo's ascent toward stardom has been Monroe. After surprisingly signing with the Bucks in the offseason, Monroe came out of the gates hot for Milwaukee. Unfortunately, his production has really slipped, as he is averaging 21.2 fantasy points per game over his last five, and has failed to surpass 20 thrice in that span. His minutes are taking a big hit as head coach Jason Kidd experiments with Miles Plumlee and John Henson more, and there are simply better options for Wednesday's contests.
