This article is part of our In-Season Strategy series.
What is going on in Atlanta? Did you tune in for heat-check-Valanciunas last night? Denver will be scary soon. Is this Markelle Fultz revival the best one yet? The Kings just lost to Charlotte, but Kevin Huerter is coming for vengeance.
Sell high candidates followed by buy-low candidates; let's go:
Sell: Trae Young, Hawks
You should be looking for a king's haul for Young. If you can't find one, a regular haul is worth entertaining. Atlanta's offense is whack. The Hawks easily lead the league in midrange field goals attempted, and Young's 2022-23 shot selection has been part of that. Currently launching 47% of his shots from the midrange and 29% from beyond the arc, Young's scale is tilting further in the wrong direction. Those splits sat at 42% and 36% last season, respectively.
Per CleaningTheGlass, Atlanta ranks 30th in three-point shooting at 32.7% as a team. Young is tied for 25th league-wide with 7.1 three-point attempts per game, but his 29.3% clip from deep is the lowest accuracy among that cohort. He's amid the worst shooting season of his career. The off-ball experimentation isn't going well.
The Hawks also grade as a below-average team scoring at the rim. If the team can't successfully hit threes and score at the rim, it becomes significantly more complex for Young to operate. In a nutshell, that's the closed cycle. Young is struggling, and his teammates are struggling, resulting in the negation of Young's gravity and more defensive attention being allocated
What is going on in Atlanta? Did you tune in for heat-check-Valanciunas last night? Denver will be scary soon. Is this Markelle Fultz revival the best one yet? The Kings just lost to Charlotte, but Kevin Huerter is coming for vengeance.
Sell high candidates followed by buy-low candidates; let's go:
Sell: Trae Young, Hawks
You should be looking for a king's haul for Young. If you can't find one, a regular haul is worth entertaining. Atlanta's offense is whack. The Hawks easily lead the league in midrange field goals attempted, and Young's 2022-23 shot selection has been part of that. Currently launching 47% of his shots from the midrange and 29% from beyond the arc, Young's scale is tilting further in the wrong direction. Those splits sat at 42% and 36% last season, respectively.
Per CleaningTheGlass, Atlanta ranks 30th in three-point shooting at 32.7% as a team. Young is tied for 25th league-wide with 7.1 three-point attempts per game, but his 29.3% clip from deep is the lowest accuracy among that cohort. He's amid the worst shooting season of his career. The off-ball experimentation isn't going well.
The Hawks also grade as a below-average team scoring at the rim. If the team can't successfully hit threes and score at the rim, it becomes significantly more complex for Young to operate. In a nutshell, that's the closed cycle. Young is struggling, and his teammates are struggling, resulting in the negation of Young's gravity and more defensive attention being allocated toward him.
Atlanta hasn't been healthy for most of the season, but that's had a negligible impact on Young. Dejounte Murray just returned from a four-game absence, but Young was equally inefficient without him in the lineup. John Collins returned from an ankle injury Monday, but Clint Capela (Young's best pick-and-roll partner) is out with a calf strain.
All in all, it's messy in Atlanta right now. There is enough talent to fuel a playoff spot, but Young isn't returning the dividends of his top-12 preseason ranking. It's worth exploring a blockbuster for the 24-year-old.
Sell High: Jonas Valanciunas, Pelicans
Valanciunas boomed for one of the craziest stat lines of the season Monday, racking up 37 points while canning seven threes. That snapped an 0-for-10 streak from beyond the arc across his past seven games. While three-point shooting isn't a reliable part of his game, Valanciunas is a veteran scorer and an elite rebounder.
However, New Orleans has been better with Valanciunas off the court. He holds a negative-4.8 point differential per 100 possessions, with opponents scoring much more efficiently during his minutes. Larry Nance was inactive for Valanciunas' boom (pretty convenient). He's day-to-day with Achilles soreness, but Nance, and even jumbo-wing Naji Marshall, often make for better fits next to Zion Williamson.
Again, Valanciunas remains an efficient scorer and stout rebounder, but this is an extraordinary sell-high opportunity.
Buy Low: Michael Porter Jr., Nuggets
Owner of an extensive medical history, MPJ is currently shelved with a heel injury that has held him out for nearly a month. However, Porter's historical injury troubles are related to back problems, so it's a silver lining that his back is not the culprit here.
Porter could return next week. He's averaging 16.4 points, 6.0 rebounds and 1.3 assists in 16 games this season, including a 42.7% clip from beyond the arc. Go get him. Pitch his current shareholder on how injury-prone Porter is. The window to acquire him is shrinking, but he's an exciting talent that should return to those above marks immediately.
Buy Low: Markelle Fultz, Magic
In the case of another shrinking buy-low window, Fultz has looked sharp recently. In two recent contests against Atlanta, the 24-year-old combined for 40 points and 18 assists.
Fultz's 2021-22 sample size post-ACL recovery was just 18 games, but he trailed only Trae Young in high-value assists (creating 3PT/looks at the rim/FTAs) per 75 possessions last season. When he was on the floor, Fultz assisted on 45.2% of his teammates' buckets -- highest in the league.
His fantasy resume has some appeal when combining his facilitating prowess, moderate shooting volume and… emerging three-point stroke? There has been optimism in the past about Fultz regaining his shooting touch, and early results in 2022-23 are again promising. Fultz is 7-for-15 from beyond the arc through his first 11 games. Given that he was 4-for-17 through 18 games last season, he's trending in the right direction -- both performance and confidence-wise.
Orlando has a blossoming core. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are both quality passers and pick-and-roll threats. While that decreases Fultz's usage (he certainly won't approach the aforementioned assist percentages from last season), the Magic can get creative and take pressure off Fultz. It's a medium-risk, high-reward growth scenario.
Buy Low: Kevin Huerter, Kings
Although he's cooled recently, Huerter remains integral to Sacramento's offense. His minutes and volume are stable, and he's bound for positive regression to his three-point shooting mean in the coming weeks.
Huerter averaged 15.9 points while connecting on 45.1% of 7.1 three-point attempts per game throughout the first two months of the season. In eight December contests thus far, Huerter is hitting just 30.9% of his triples en route to 12.8 points per game.
Huerter is an intriguing sniper archetype. Despite being an elite marksman with a career 38.3 3P%, Huerter has good shot diversity and is a quality finisher at the rim. I'm buying stock in a bounce-back to begin any day now.
