Welcome to our essential Saturday DFS NBA guide! Tonight's small slate requires up-to-the-minute analysis of the NBA injury report to find winning value. With major NBA injuries impacting NBA depth charts and NBA starting lineups, the landscape is constantly shifting. We'll analyze the latest NBA news and NBA player stats to create the optimal build. Whether you're targeting high-upside plays like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or need budget NBA sleepers, our breakdown will help you deploy the best fantasy basketball draft strategy and leverage the NBA lineup optimizer to secure a profitable night in NBA fantasy.
SLATE OVERVIEW
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We're well-represented for most of the eight teams available tonight, although some key players from the Thunder and Lakers were excluded from consideration. Recent injury issues for Denver offered us a lot of value, and the Pacers continue to provide us with pivots that are worth considering.
INJURIES
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report. Below are some of the most recent and relevant injuries for Saturday. Keep in mind that this is not a complete list. Use your best judgment when evaluating ongoing injury scenarios elsewhere on the slate.
CHA LaMelo Ball (rest) - QUESTIONABLE
CHA Ryan Kalkbrenner (personal) - QUESTIONABLE
The Hornets played their heart out against the Bucks, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Ball take a seat against the Thunder. If Kalkbrenner misses, Moussa Diabate ($4,600) would likely grab another start. Collin Sexton ($6,400) will remain the logical pivot for Ball absences.
IND Several Absences
I have some solutions to address these absences via a couple of value options that I'll discuss later in the article.
OKC Luguentz Dort (shoulder) - QUESTIONABLE
OKC Aaron Wiggins (groin) - OUT
The Thunder have employed a variety of methods to account for Dort's absence. While I like Alex Caruso's ($4,500) upside, I prefer Isaiah Joe ($4,700) as the primary pivot for this spot. Joe's floor and overall usage percentage are slightly better, although I wouldn't fault anyone for taking Caruso.
DEN Nikola Jokic (wrist) - QUESTIONABLE
DEN Christian Braun (ankle) - OUT
DEN Cameron Johnson (bicep) - OUT
While I doubt Jokic will miss his first game of the year, he's very deserving of some time off. I'm not overly concerned about a Jokic absence, but we need to address Braun, who could be out for six weeks and possibly longer. Tim Hardaway ($3,900) should be added immediately in seasonal formats, and I have no problem taking him at this bargain salary tonight. Bruce Brown ($3,800) could also figure prominently in this shakeup, but I'll give Hardaway the first opportunity. We should also think about Peyton Watson ($4,800) as a potential add in place of Johnson.
ELITE PLAYERS
Even though our slate is small, we have four blue-chip players with five-figure salaries. We already discussed Jokic, but I'm inclined to go with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,700) as the best add for this grouping. The Thunder have had a few days to rest before heading out on the road, and I like the matchup against the Hornets, who are probably a bit gassed after dropping a heartbreaking loss to the Bucks in overtime. The Lakers will continue a stint on the road, and we will witness a colossal duel between Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500) and Luka Doncic ($12,000). Both teams are playing back-to-back games, but I'll favor Giannis over Doncic at home.
We only have one player available in the $9k tier, and Pascal Siakam's ($9,700) revenge game against the Raptors should be fun to watch, and there's possibly some intangible value to be found in this spot.
We have six players to choose from in the $8k tier, and I think Jamal Murray ($8,000) should have a decent opportunity for production against the Timberwolves. I will also endorse Anthony Edwards ($8,800) on the other end of this matchup.
EXPECTED CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS
Due to the size of the slate, I will combine the chalk and value sections of the article and place the remainder of my selections within.
Brandon Ingram, TOR ($7,800) @ IND
The Pacers are short-handed at almost every position, and I'm a fan of both Ingram and RJ Barrett ($7,200) in what could become a rough situation for Indiana. The only thing going for the Pacers is a game at home, but otherwise, it should be a good chance for the Raptors to climb another rung in the Eastern Conference Standings.
Ryan Rollins, MIL ($6,300) vs. LAL
Rollins scares me a bit after traveling back from Charlotte following a hotly contested overtime game, but he stayed fairly even during Milwaukee's most recent back-to-back set. He'll have to overcome some potential hurdles opposite Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, but the potential defensive draw against Reaves isn't bad, and the Lakers are completing a road back-to-back, which can be taxing.
Aaron Gordon, DEN ($6,000) @ MIN
There's a slight chance that Jokic will sit today, and that's usually a good citation for Gordon. Even if Jokic plays, the limitations with his wrist may ramp up his assist totals, and Gordon is bound to be found on the other end of those passes. While we are on this game, I want to mention the potential of Julius Randle ($8,200) and Rudy Gobert ($6,000) who will jump from the periphery to the forefront if Jokic takes a seat.
Jakob Poeltl, TOR ($5,600) @ IND
The Pacers are employing a spaghetti-against-the-wall strategy to see what sticks at the center position, but Tony Bradley and Isaiah Jackson have performed admirably. Despite their limited success, Poeltl is at a great salary point and serves as a good budget center option in what could be an exploitable spot against the Pacers. We already mentioned the revenge game afoot for Siakam, but Scottie Barnes should be responsible for handling the former Raptor while Poeltl goes to work under the basket.
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, IND ($4,300) vs. TOR
I don't think I am too hasty in making this call, as Robinson-Earl has now been featured in the first unit for two consecutive games. While his production in these games was nothing special, I think his heightened usage should yield a fantasy-point total that we can tolerate at his salary. This was one part of the Indiana solution I mentioned earlier, and outside of the aforementioned Siakam, I think Andrew Nembhard ($6,800) is another spot where you can gain an edge over the field.
In summary, these selections should be mixed liberally with players mentioned in our injury section, with Tim Hardaway and Isaiah Joe representing the most notable spots. I would try my best to avoid an SGA/Joe stack, but it isn't the worst decision you could make. Joe works a lot better if you're taking Doncic or Giannis over SGA. You'll need budget fliers like Robinson-Earl to keep your costs down, but there are several avenues to fit an elite and two 8-9k options in all of your lineup builds if you follow most of these endorsements.
