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Best Bets
Celtics over 16.5 free throws (-130) vs. Hawks
DraftKings, 11:21 AM CT
Alex Barutha: Through three games, Boston has made 55 free throws (18.3 per game). So, if everything was as it has been, this would be a fine bet. However, Dejounte Murray has been suspended, which opens up value in this market. During the regular season, in lineups with Murray off the floor, while Trae Young and DeAndre Hunter are on, the Hawks allow opponents to make 25.8 free throws per 100 possessions (6th percentile). This series is also being played at a pace of 102, so there are no concerns about a slow game.
Timberwolves over 18.5 made free throws (-110) and Nikola Jokic under 3.5 turnovers (-130)
DraftKings, 12:02 PM CT
Alex Barutha: With Kyle Anderson (eye) missing this game, I looked up some Wolves lineup stats with him off the floor and the four main starters on during this series. Two things stood out. The first is that Minnesota's offense gets to the free throw line a ton, making 32 free throws per 100 possessions (99th percentile), which translates into 30 free throws per 93 possessions (the pace of this series). Maybe there is some noise in those numbers, but the sample isn't exactly small (138 total possessions). The difference between that and the prop is too drastic for me to ignore.
The second thing that stood out in those lineups is Minnesota's nonexistent ability to force turnovers. Those lineups have a defensive turnover rate of 7.9%, which is in the zeroth (0th? last? worst?) percentile. Jokic is averaging 3.0 turnovers in this series, so I like him to stay there without too much juice on the number.
Suns over 21.5 made free throws (-105) vs. Clippers
DraftKings, 11:46 PM CT
Alex Barutha: At the risk of free-throw and three-point team props becoming my brand, I'm offering up another one. In these playoffs, with Kawhi Leonard off the floor, while Russell Westbrook and Norman Powell are on, the Clippers are allowing a free-throw rate of 30.3 makes per 100 possessions -- an absurd number that is in the zeroth (0th? last? worst?) percentile. This series is being played at a pace of 98, so we're all good there. Phoenix is averaging 23.8 free throw makes per game in this series already, which obviously includes two games of facing Kawhi Leonard.
Russell Westbrook over 2.5 steals + blocks at Phoenix (+150)
DraftKings, 11:54 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Westbrook has been a man possessed, maybe more so on defense than offense. He has seven blocks and six steals in this series, and he's averaged 1.9 steals and 1.2 blocks per 36 minutes with Kawhi Leonard off the floor versus the Suns. Given that we can expect him to play 40+ minutes, I like getting plus money on him to reach this mark.
Defensive leans: Trae Young over 1.5 steals (+144, FanDuel), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope over 1.5 steals (+120, DraftKings) and Rudy Gobert over 1.5 blocks (+104, FanDuel)
Alex Barutha: These are based entirely off of deflection and contest numbers off of NBA.com's "hustle" stats page. The reason I'm labeling them as leans is that I don't think they're amazing values, but if I wanted action for the sake of action, I'd take them. Through the playoffs, Young is averaging 3.0 deflections and 1.8 steals, KCP is averaging 3.3 deflections and 1.0 steals, and Gobert is averaging 10.3 two-point contests (1.3 blocks).
I'm taking the OVER on Trae Young scoring 27.5 points (-115)
PointsBet, 12:30PM ET
Ken Crites: Trae Young's scoring has increased with every game in this series. He posted a 16 point "dud" in Game 1, followed by 24 in Game 2, 32 in Game 3 and an impressive 35 in Game 4. With Dejounte Murray suspended for Game 5, that means 18 field goal attempts are available for Young and Bogdan Bogdanovic to essentially split. Down 3-1, the Hawks have nothing to lose and might as well let Young gun from well behind the arc. The efficiency might stink, but the volume should be there. Atlanta has been getting very little from their bench outside of Bogdanovic, who will start tonight. And John Collins is averaging only 7.5 points per game this series. Look for Young to shoot often and early. Atlanta might even catch Boston looking ahead to Round 2 versus Philly.
Anthony Edwards to score 30+ points vs. Nuggets (+110)
DraftKings Sportsbook, 1pm CT
Nick Whalen: This one is relatively straightforward, as we expect Edwards to go down swinging, even if the Timberwolves come up short in their bid to extend the series. After a rough set of Play-In games, plus a quiet Game 1 in Denver (18 points in 28 minutes), Edwards has snapped back to looking more like his old self over the last three contests, posting 41, 36 and 34 points, respectively. As long as the game doesn't get completely out of hand early on, this should be another spot where Edwards is seeing closet o 45 minutes. If that's the case, he'll have a great shot to clear 30 points and enable you to more than double your investment.
