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Best Bets
Kyrie Irving over 1.5 steals (+116) at Spurs
FanDuel, 3:44 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Over the past 10 games, the Spurs are allowing the most steals to opponents. Specifically, they're allowing the most steals to point guards over the past 30 days. That sets up well for Irving to have an above-average defensive outing. In March, he's averaging 1.1 steals per game.
Paolo Banchero over 6.5 rebounds (-130) vs. Hornets
FanDuel, 3:51 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Banchero is averaging a solid 6.4 boards per game in March, and this matchup represents an opportunity to rise above his usual mark. Charlotte is allowing opponents to grab the third-most rebounds over the past 10 games, and specifically the second-most to power forwards over the past 30 days.
Nick Richards under 8.5 rebounds (+100) at Magic
BetMGM, 3:54 PM CT
Alex Barutha: From the same game as above, Orlando is allowing the fewest boards to opponents over the past 10 games, and the fewest to centers during the past 30 days. Richards is averaging 9.5 boards in March, but when these teams faced off March 5, he had four rebounds in 27 minutes.
Anthony Edwards under 2.5 threes (-130) vs. Nuggets
FanDuel, 3:57 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Edwards is questionable tonight after the dunk of the year on John Collins, who emerged from the explosion with a bruised head, while Ant dislocated his finger. Are we playing slamball? It's not just the dislocated finger making me take the under, but also Denver's strong three-point defense. The past 10 games have seen Denver allow the 2nd-fewest threes to opponents, and specifically the fewest threes to opposing shooting guards over the past 30 days. I don't often take unders on Edwards, but tonight's a night that I can stomach it.
New Orleans Pelicans -8.0 at Brooklyn Nets
DraftKings Sportsbook, 1:30pm CT
Nick Whalen: This is somehow our lowest spread on the board tonight as of publication, but I think we're getting a decent number on the Pelicans, who come in well-rested and boasting the third-best NET rating in the NBA since the All-Star break. In that span, the Pels are No. 2 in DRTG, while the Nets are 25th in offense. Brooklyn is also an NBA-worst 9-18 ATS this season against Western Conference teams, while New Orleans is 9-4 ATS with 2+ days of rest. The Pels are also covering at a 59.4% clip (19-13-1) on the road this season.
Zion Williamson O30.5 PTS+REB at Brooklyn Nets (-115)
PointsBet, 1:30pm CT
Nick Whalen: Williamson has been on a tear of late and has easily cruised overt his number in five straight games, posting 28.6 points, 8.8 boards and shooting 63.2 percent from the field during that run. The Nets have been a respectable defensive team since the break (12th in DRTG), but they rank just 24th in TRB%.
I'm taking the OVER on Fred VanVleet scoring 19.5 points
(DraftKings, -125, 4:30 EST)
Ken Crites: Over his last 9 games, VanVleet is averaging 20.2 points per contest. Tonight, he faces the defensively-challenged Wizards backcourt of Jordan Poole and Justin Champagnie. The biggest fear in this over is a Houston blowout. But I suspect with Alperen Sengun and Cam Whitmore out for the Rockets, the Wizards will hopefully hang in for at least three quarters. Sengun and Whitmore's absence makes a lot of shots available for FVV. I also like the somewhat high O/U 228 mark – points will be scored. Just five days ago, VanVleet scored 27 points in a home win over Washington. But hey, I'm a mediocre 31-25 on the season, feel free to fade!
