FanDuel NBA: Saturday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Saturday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

After the league went on hiatus for Thanksgiving Day, most teams were back on the schedule Friday, leaving a seven-game slate on the docket for Saturday. Eight of the 14 teams in action Saturday (Washington, Cleveland, Denver, Atlanta, San Antonio, New Orleans, Sacramento, and Golden State) played the previous night, which could work in favor of the six teams who were fortunate enough to enjoy an extended rest.

Point Guard

Damian Lillard, POR vs. LAL ($9,400): Lillard suffered through a season-worst 4-for-22 shooting performance in the Blazers' loss to the Bulls on Tuesday, but still managed to make a run at a triple-double with 19 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists. Much like James Harden, Lillard's high usage rate will almost always make him a great daily play even if he struggles with his shot, but expect him to fare much better against the Lakers' swiss-cheese defense. RotoWire's Defense vs. Position Stats tool indicates the Lakers are giving up more FanDuel points to opposing point guards than any other team, and while that tool does have some limitations, the eye test seems to confirm that the Lakers' defense is horrid. There's a risk that Lillard may not see his usual 37 minutes if the Blazers end up pulling away from the Lakers by the end of the third quarter, but any success that Portland has in turning the game into a rout will likely have a lot to do with the point guard.

D'Angelo Russell, LAL at POR ($5,100): As alluded to above, the 2-12 Lakers are a dumpster fire, but if there's any silver lining to take away from the team's four-game losing streak -- all double-digit defeats -- it's been the play of Russell. After taking a lot of heat early in the season for the lack of playing time he was giving the rookie, coach Byron Scott has loosened the reins on Russell a bit in those last four games. During that span, Russell has averaged 12.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, three assists, 1.5 three-pointers, one steal, and 0.5 blocks over 30.8 minutes per game, and even those numbers are a bit deflated by going unused in the final 12 minutes of Tuesday's loss to the Warriors, when Los Angeles was trailing by more than 30 after the third quarter. Though I fully expect the Blazers to win comfortably, it's not likely they'll steamroll the Lakers the way the undefeated Warriors did; in fact, just six days earlier, the Lakers played the Blazers at Staples Center and lost by a respectable 107-93 margin. If they're able to keep the difference in a similar range Saturday, it should result in a healthy helping of minutes for Russell, who recorded 13 points, nine rebounds, and six assists during that previous matchup with Portland.

Shooting Guard

Eric Gordon, NO at UTA ($6,100): Tyreke Evans (knee) supposedly has a chance to make his season debut Saturday, but even if that materializes, he'll face a minutes restriction and would figure to see most of his minimal usage at either point guard, since regular starter Jrue Holiday is sitting out for rest, or small forward, where the Pelicans have been forced to get by all season with the uninspiring trio of Alonzo Gee, Dante Cunningham, and Luke Babbitt. As a result, Gordon doesn't seem at much risk of falling below his usual 35 minutes per game. Moreover, with Anthony Davis leaving Friday's game against the Clippers with a knee contusion and perhaps on tap to sit out Saturday, there's a good chance that Gordon remains a focal point of the Pelicans' attack. He won't offer many contributions in the non-scoring categories, but the high volume of shots he projects to see Saturday could result in a strong point total that would allow him to deliver value on FanDuel.

Alec Burks, UTA vs. NO ($5,100): Like his shooting guard counterpart Gordon, injuries figure to open up additional opportunities for Burks on Saturday. Utah's starting two-guard, Rodney Hood, is reportedly nursing back spasms and is listed as questionable to play, and if he ends up being ruled out, Burks would more than likely step into the starting lineup. Beyond Burks and Hood, the Jazz have few other options to turn to for minutes at shooting guard, so Hood's potential absence could open the door for a huge portion of minutes for Burks. Even while functioning as the Jazz's sixth man this season, Burks has seen 27.9 minutes per game and is averaging 14.7 points, 3.8 boards, and 2.1 assists, so coach Quin Snyder shouldn't have too much hesitation about using Burks in an expanded role if needed. Burks also couldn't ask for a much better matchup, as the battered Pelicans backcourt has been butchered by opposing guards this season, which should help Burks make the most of the few possessions the Jazz's slow-paced offense gives him. If you're unwilling to use Burks if Hood ends up being ruled active for the game, I'd recommend J.R. Smith ($5,400) as a slightly pricier alternative or Marco Belinelli ($4,000) as a more inexpensive option.

Small Forward

Danilo Gallinari, DEN at DAL ($7,200): This is another situation to monitor, as Gallinari has benefited greatly of late from the absence of Kenneth Faried (ankle), who was upgraded to a game-time decision Friday against the Spurs before ultimately sitting out. Faried's status remains undetermined heading into Saturday's matchup with the Mavericks, but assuming he misses a fourth straight contest, look for Gallinari to continue to pile up the rebounds. While Faried has been out, Gallinari is grabbing 11.3 boards per game, an impressive figure for a player who is only averaging 4.6 rebounds for his career. During that three-game stretch, Gallinari is shooting an uncharacteristically poor 26.8 percent from the field, so there's definitely room for him to raise his production in the scoring column to complement those hefty rebound totals.

Gordon Hayward, UTA vs. NO ($6,900): Hayward had a difficult start to the season, but he's ratcheted up his production in the last four games with averages of 22.8 points, six rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 2.5 three-pointers. His 52.6 percent success rate from downtown over those four games isn't sustainable, but against a weakened Pelicans defense that figures to be without its top rim protector in Anthony Davis, Hayward should deliver another highly efficient game. Because of the favorable matchup, I want one of the Jazz's two stars (Hayward or Derrick Favors) in my lineup, and because there seems to be a greater variety of attractive options at power forward, I'm choosing to cast my lot with Hayward.

Power Forward

Kevin Love, CLE vs. BKN ($8,300): The Cavaliers are playing the second game of a back-to-back set Saturday after a hard-fought 95-90 win over the Hornets on Friday, during which LeBron James played 38 minutes. Given James' ample usage Friday and how much the Cavs have invested in preserving his health for the long haul, don't be surprised if coach David Blatt deploys his superstar a bit more conservatively Saturday when the opportunity allows for it. Conversely, Love shouldn't face many playing time concerns Saturday after he was rested for the entire fourth quarter of Friday's game, a luxury afforded to the Cavs after Timofey Mozgov returned from injury to bolster the depth in the frontcourt. Even while playing only 30 minutes Friday, Love still cranked out 18 points and 16 boards, so with the prospect of increased minutes and offensive involvement perhaps headed his way Saturday if James (and maybe Mozgov too, seeing that Friday was his first game back) is rested a bit more, the power forward makes for a good daily roster cornerstone.

Luis Scola, TOR at WAS ($4,700): Bismack Biyombo has stepped into the Raptors' starting lineup at center the last two games to replace the injured Jonas Valanciunas and has done a fine job on the boards, but it's Scola who has been responsible for picking up the offensive slack in the frontcourt. While playing an average of 29 minutes over his last four contests, Scola has tallied 17 points and 6.3 boards per game. showing that even at age 35, he still has something left in the tank. He's not likely to keep this production up for the duration of Valanciunas' absence, but he looks like a useful daily play Saturday against the struggling Wizards, who have been soundly defeated in their last three games and will be without the services of Nene Hilario (calf), their top frontcourt defender, on Saturday. That'll force the Wizards to rely on offensive-first stretch-four types like Kris Humphries, Jared Dudley, and Drew Gooden to guard Scola, which could put the Raptors big man on course for a fifth consecutive double-digit scoring effort. So long as he can remain in the neighborhood of those point and rebound averages he's submitted over the last four games, Scola will offer plenty of return on his minimal investment.

Center

Mason Plumlee, POR vs. LAL ($6,200): Meyers Leonard has been cleared to return to action Saturday after missing seven games with a dislocated left shoulder, but that's more likely to impact the minutes of Ed Davis and Noah Vonleh than Plumlee's. With three straight double-doubles on his ledger, Plumlee is locked into a 30-minute nightly role in the Blazers frontcourt if he can avoid foul trouble. Look for him to dominate the glass against a Lakers squad that ranks 27th in the league in rebound differential, with his 17-point, 11-rebound performance versus Los Angeles last Sunday offering a glimpse of the kind of upside he presents.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Adam Wolf plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: rotosomething.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Adam Wolf
Adam previously headed the site's NHL and NBA coverage and now works primarily as an NFL and MLB contributor. He began writing for RotoWire in 2012 as a student at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
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