This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
We've had fine enough luck to begin the season, but I'm increasingly surprised the "parlay builders" have been anything but. I'm not sure if I'm experiencing the latest example of "Vegas knows more than me" but a 3-3 record on bets with odds -180 and lower is an interesting surprise. Maybe it's something that will trend closer to the correct average as the season progresses, or perhaps it's something to monitor more closely for possibly significant value in the future. Either way, I'm drawing attention to it now because I'm on to you DraftKings hoping for a better turnaround this week. 13-game slate sits in front of us Wednesday which means plenty of prop bets at our disposal.
Points Props
With 13 games Wednesday, I thought I'd find more guaranteed locks. Instead, there are a lot of legitimate options, but few I feel great highlighting in the Best Bets section.
As a result, we have a grab bag of interesting options such as Kyle Lowry under 15.5 points (-110), a figure that just seems way too high given his struggles this season. I legitimately did a double-take when I saw his numbers. The last time he shot under 40 percent in a season was all the way back in the 2009-10 campaign, the last year before Lowry became a full-time starter. He's currently shooting 38.6 percent from the floor and has six games with fewer than 10 points smushed around three games with 15 or more. There's a number of players that seemingly are dealing with rust, but given Lowry's age, you do have to wonder if the stalwart point guard has hit some sort of wall.
Both Dejounte Murray and Derrick White are priced up appropriately given the juicy matchup against the Kings, but I do think Devin Vassell can hit his over (10.5 points, -105) under the same logic given his recent aggressiveness (at least 12 shots over the last four games).
We went to the well last week and it paid off (pun intended) well so it's time to return for seconds. Daniel Gafford under 8.5 points (-120) will always be in play so long as he continues to play 20-23 minutes, and even if he does get a bump against a roster heavy with big men like the Cavs, they have a legitimately good defense against opposing centers led by Jarrett Allen.
From an odds perspective, there's probably not a better deal out there right now than Scottie Barnes over 13.5 points (+100). Yes, the Celtics defense is improving after uncharacteristic early-season struggles, but save for a foul-heavy contest Sunday against the Nets, the rookie has hit this over in six of the last seven games and more importantly is averaging nearly 14 shots per game. For plus money, it doesn't get much better than that.
I'll be real honest, I had to do a bit of searching to learn who Ayo Dosunmu was and why he was even available to take any prop bets on. Safe to say under 6.5 points (-110) is a legitimate possibility. Bulls/Mavs just overall has a ton of props which I figured was due to heightened interest in this game specifically, but this might be one of the new-age DraftKings bets where they start to feature more bench players after getting lapped by the field in those types of props last year. Dosunmu is obviously incredibly feast or famine so I wouldn't use him from a parlay perspective, but just two games with more than four points since Patrick Williams (wrist) went down speaks for itself.
I mentioned this bet in the Handicapping the NBA: Wednesday picks edition so I won't go into much further detail. Normally these bets are considered guaranteed "Best Bets" but I featured it more so because the odds (+150) for Wendell Carter to double-double were just far too good against the Nets. It basically depends on if he can score double-digit points which I obviously feel like he can.
Rebounds/Assists
Much like Andre Drummond's rebound totals last night, Julius Randle should breeze over 9.5 rebounds (-110) just because the Bucks are so miserably bad on the glass. These two teams played last week and Randle somehow grabbed five offensive boards and the Knicks could be without one or both of their centers in this rematch. Yeah, this should be all Randle on Wednesday.
Sticking with the rebounds theme, I can't figure out why Christian Wood's rebounding figure is so low. Over 10.5 rebounds (-110) should easily be in play given the Pistons allow the fifth-most boards to opposing centers and Wood had at least 13 rebounds in four straight games before foul trouble ended that run Sunday. Maybe DraftKings was scared off by the center's last game when he played just 24 minutes, but I'm chalking that up to foul trouble. There shouldn't be any worry about Wood being removed due to a blowout given the Rockets are actually favored in this contest too.
One final rebound figure to mention. Luka Doncic under 7.5 rebounds (-120) is sneakily pretty good value considering the Bulls are on the same pace as the Bucks and Jazz in terms of negating rebounds to opposing point guards. I do subscribe to the theory star players are going to do "star" things so it's hardly a lock, but I do think the 22-year-old simply has had to expend more energy on the offensive end in recent games hurting his rebound totals (averaging 7.0 rebounds over the last five games after averaging 8.6 to begin the season).
I think even the smarter NBA fans might not know much of Kenrich Williams. Or at least that's what I'm telling myself after getting stumped earlier by Dosunmu. The fourth-year forward has been averaging close to 22 minutes a game with the Thunder, but he's hardly been a factor most nights. Under 0.5 steals (+115) sure feels like a nice gamble when you consider he's had four steals across nine games.
Parlay Builders
- Maurice Harkless under 3.5 rebounds (-155)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo double-double (-245)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 0.5 steals (-200)
Best Bets
- Scottie Barnes over 13.5 points (+100)
- Ayo Dosunmu under 6.5 points (-110)
- Julius Randle over 9.5 rebounds (-110)
- Christian Wood over 10.5 rebounds (-110)
