This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
We return with a nine-game slate Friday and perhaps more notably, the first time that I can remember since the beginning of the season where we have prop bets for almost every team. Normally injuries, expected dominations (games against the Thunder or Rockets) or COVID situations have made full games, or at the very least some teams, just completely absent in the prop department. The Heat's situation notwithstanding, Friday's slate features prominent props in just about every facet, which should open up a couple more opportunities than normal.
Points Props
I did this Wednesday and while I didn't like the cop-out, I really just want to draw attention to the odds again. Either Jaylen Brown (+300) or Jayson Tatum (+265) should be the favorite to be the highest scorer in the PHI/BOS game as opposed to Joel Embiid (-135). Yes, the 76ers center was dominant the last time the two teams played, but Al Horford and Robert Williams are both available in this contest which should help matters significantly. At the very least I'd be willing to bet Embiid's streak of 30-plus point games ends at eight which means taking the 29.5-point under (-120) is a reasonable bet.
The Pacers allow the second-fewest points to opposing power forwards and specifically do a decent enough job limiting three-point attempts. If you're worried about what that means for 3&D specialist, Jae Crowder, you and I are on the same wavelength. Crowder has scored in double figures in 17 of the 34 games this season, but I think this unique matchup might be a bit difficult for the veteran. Either under 9.5 points (-110) or under made threes (u 1.5, +140) would be interesting. Obviously one presents a bit more risk, especially if Crowder attempts close to his season average (5.5) in deep balls, but I don't think the over hits if he shoots under his three total.
I recognize Killian Hayes isn't much of a scorer, but for a guy that's probably playing 30-plus minutes Friday, it's unfathomable to me his over/under sits at 6.5 points. The second-year guard has played 27-or-more minutes in 14 games this season and has scored less than the aforementioned over/under in just four of them. With Hayes tying his season-high in field-goal attempts Tuesday and the Pistons down at least four guys for this contest, I'll gladly take over 6.5 points (-110).
Sticking in the same game, OG Anunoby should go over 18.5 points (-105) with both Gary Trent (ankle) and Scottie Barnes (knee) likely unavailable. Check before lineup locks to make sure both are out before really committing to the bet, but the Pistons allow the second-most points to opposing small forwards and I expect the fifth-year forward to capitalize on the matchup and also see an abnormally high uptick in attempts in this contest.
It's always an interesting time betting on a Rockets guard, but I do think Jalen Green should be poised to exceed 14.5 points (-115) against the Kings, who allow the most points to opposing shooting guards across the entire NBA. While Kevin Porter has been incredibly inconsistent, the 2021 No. 2 overall pick has at least 10-plus points in each of the last 10 games and that's despite shooting just 21.9 percent from deep in six games across that timespan. It's buried deep in the DraftKings props section under "Player Specials" for good reason (mainly because these are seemingly unreachable), but I'd even consider looking at Green to score 20-plus points (+300) or 20-plus points and six rebounds (+1500) if you really want some intriguing juice.
Rebounds/Assists
Not to be confused with starting Celtics center Robert Williams, Grant Williams doesn't really seem poised to exceed much more than three rebounds, yet DraftKings curiously has line drastically in one direction. Especially for the odds (+120), I like under 2.5 rebounds for the Tennessee product, especially considering he's averaging exactly one rebound per game over the last five contests.
It's likely that the Age of Yurtseven might be coming to a close soon, but I do think 2020 second-round pick has another opportunity to produce in the absence of Bam Adebayo (thumb). You're not getting a lot of leeway here and it's entirely possible the Heat once again blow out the Hawks, but I do like over 10.5 rebounds (-145) with Clint Capela (ankle) sidelined another game. You can also get Omer Yurtseven to record a double-double (-115) which might actually be better odds given he's scored double-digit points in six of his eight starts. The rebound over is probably the safer play, though.
I noted Jarrett Allen in the Parlay Builders section in large part because this is the type of game he should dominate, but I just wanted to point out that the over on his blocks (1.5, +105) is really interesting. Over the last month, the Spurs are averaging close to eight shots blocked per game, and while that's not saying exactly what they're doing that defensively, I think it's easier to project a defensive scheme to specific counting numbers when you notice outliers like that. Allen has five games with at least two blocks since returning from a stint on the COVID-19 list in late December.
Parlay Builders
- Jordan Poole under 1.5 steals (-260)
- Jarrett Allen double-double (-220)
Best Bets
- Jalen Green over 14.5 points (-115)
- Killian Hayes over 6.5 points (-110)
- Grant Williams under 2.5 rebounds (+120)
- OG Anunoby over 18.5 points (if Trent and Barnes do not play) (-105)
