This article is part of our DFS Basketball 101 series.
Each week I sit down and think about what to focus on that can help players in their One-Day fantasy sports contests. Sometimes it comes easier than others. This week nothing jumped off the page. I eventually settled on exploring home/road data for opposing fantasy points allowed by position. Surprisingly, the data showed me NOTHING. There was no indication that the matchup being at home or road swung the results one way or the other all that much.
(Fantasy Points Per Game calculated via FanDuel's scoring system)
Avg FPPG Allowed by PG – 41 FPPG, Home 40, Road 42
Avg FPPG Allowed by SG – 35 FPPG, Home 34, Road 35
Avg FPPG Allowed by SF – 36 FPPG, Home 35, Road 36
Avg FPPG Allowed by PF – 41 FPPG, Home 41, Road 42
Avg FPPG Allowed by C – 42 FPPG, Home 41, Road 42
I didn't believe it, so I dug in deeper to see if the data was correct. Fortunately, what I found uncovered some nice home/road strategies that you can use in daily fantasy basketball.
Home/Road Differential
The first thing I looked at was which individual players performed better at home versus on the road. The top players in Home/Road Differential are highlighted below.
Top Home Players based on FPPG Differential Percentage
Terrence Jones +31%
Kendall Marshall +28%
Terrence Ross +26%
Tobias Harris +26%
Randy Foye +25%
Jarrett Jack +22%
Miles Plumlee +20%
Kyrie Irving +20%
John Wall +19%
Jared Sullinger +19%
Derrick Favors +18%
Eric Bledsoe +18%
Brandon Bass +17%
Anderson Varejao +17%
Dwyane Wade +15%
The two biggest players that standout in this group are Kyrie Irving and John Wall. Don't pay for them on the road, take them at home!
Next, I looked at field-goal percentage and complied this list.
Top Home Players based on FG Differential Percentage
Terrence Jones +22%
Mike Dunleavy +22%
OJ Mayo +19%
James Anderson +18%
Jodie Meeks +17%
JJ Redick +17%
Klay Thompson +16%
Dirk Nowitzki +16%
Glen Davis +16%
Victor Oladipo +16%
Khris Middleton +14%
Trey Burke +13%
George Hill +13%
David West +13%
Joe Johnson +13%
Markieff Morris +13%
Jameer Nelson +12%
LeBron James +11%
It's not surprising to see some of the top shooting guards having a better shooting percentage at home versus the road. They're more comfortable shooting on their own rims and streaks are a part of their game.
The next piece of my research revolved around one of the strongest metrics used in daily fantasy basketball -- opposing points allowed by position. I hadn't seen anyone breakdown this by home/road splits, so I was eager to see what the data showed. The data told me a lot and gave plenty of opportunity to find value that's not being exploited by most players. FanDuel's scoring system was used for this study.
Top 10 Teams to play PG against (Home/Road)
1. Philadelphia (Home) 48.11 FPPG allowed
2. Minnesota (Road) 46.83
3. Cleveland (Home) 46.81
4. Philadelphia (Road) 45.97
5. LA Lakers (Road) 45.72
6. Portland (Road) 45.26
7. Detroit (Road) 44.98
8. Oklahoma City (Road) 44.7
9. Sacramento (Road) 44.55
10. Washington (Home) 44.26
Top 10 Teams to AVOID playing PG against (Home/Road)
1. Miami (Road) 34.31
2. Chicago (Home) 35.95
3. LA Clippers (Road) 36.27
4. Toronto (Home) 36.3
5. Miami (Home) 36.43
6. Toronto (Road) 36.52
7. Indiana (Home) 36.65
8. Memphis (Road) 36.86
9. Brooklyn (Home) 37.04
10. LA Clippers (Home) 37.89
Top 10 Teams to play SG against (Home/Road)
1. Cleveland (Road) 40.03
2. Philadelphia (Home) 39.8
3. LA Lakers (Home) 39.75
4. LA Lakers (Road) 39.65
5. Toronto (Home) 39.37
6. Minnesota (Home) 38.45
7. Brooklyn (Home) 38.42
8. Houston (Road) 37.95
9. Sacramento (Road) 37.73
10. Brooklyn (Road) 37.56
Top 10 Teams to AVOID playing SG against (Home/Road)
1. Memphis (Road) 28.33
2. Indiana (Home) 29.56
3. Milwaukee (Home) 30.4
4. Detroit (Road) 31.03
5. LA Clippers (Home) 31.3
6. Charlotte (Home) 31.32
7. Dallas (Home) 31.41
8. Boston (Road) 31.73
9. San Antonio (Road) 32.12
10. New Orleans (Home) 32.43
Top 10 Teams to play SF against (Home/Road)
1. Philadelphia (Home) 45.58
2. Portland (Road) 41.3
3. Toronto (Road) 40.5
4. Houston (Road) 40.33
5. Detroit (Road) 40.22
6. LA Lakers (Road) 39.51
7. Orlando (Home) 39.46
8. Orlando (Road) 39.24
9. Minnesota (Road) 39.03
10. New York (Home) 38.98
Top 10 Teams to AVOID playing SF against (Home/Road)
1. Indiana (Home) 29.2
2. Oklahoma City (Home) 29.56
3. Boston (Home) 31.01
4. Golden State (Home) 31.02
5. Brooklyn (Road) 31.2
6. Toronto (Home) 31.36
7. Houston (Home) 31.73
8. Indiana (Road) 32.19
9. Atlanta (Home) 32.74
10. Denver (Road) 32.85
Top 10 Teams to play PF against (Home/Road)
1. Denver (Road) 51.27
2. Philadelphia (Road) 51.12
3. LA Lakers (Road) 48.8
4. Denver (Home) 48.78
5. Cleveland (Home) 46.91
6. Philadelphia (Home) 46.65
7. Orlando (Road) 45.83
8. Brooklyn (Road) 45.59
9. Utah (Road) 45.43
10. Sacramento (Road) 45.17
Top 10 Teams to AVOID playing PF against (Home/Road)
1. New York (Road) 31.81
2. Miami (Home) 35.49
3. Indiana (Home) 35.51
4. Portland (Home) 36.6
5. Portland (Road) 37.02
6. New York (Home) 37.19
7. Charlotte (Home) 37.43
8. San Antonio (Home) 37.48
9. Miami (Road) 37.76
10. Memphis (Home) 38.23
Top 10 Teams to play C against (Home/Road)
1. LA Lakers (Road) 51.02
2. Philadelphia (Road) 50.75
3. Milwaukee (Road) 48.75
4. LA Lakers (Home) 48.45
5. LA Clippers (Home) 47.58
6. Milwaukee (Home) 47.45
7. Utah (Road) 46.35
8. Miami (Home) 45.85
9. Philadelphia (Home) 45.49
10. Atlanta (Home) 45.1
Top 10 Teams to AVOID playing C against (Home/Road)
1. Cleveland (Home) 35.26
2. Oklahoma City (Home) 36.07
3. Washington (Home) 36.19
4. New York (Home) 36.36
5. Indiana (Road) 36.67
6. Memphis (Road) 36.74
7. Dallas (Road) 37.35
8. Toronto (Home) 37.48
9. Memphis (Home) 37.88
10. New York (Road) 38.25
