This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Baseball series.
This is the first official Sunday of summer. In the past, the hot temperatures would often mean more home runs. However, is that even possible in the modern baseball landscape? Could we possibly see more balls leaving the yard? In places where it gets really warm - like Texas and Los Angeles - it's definitely plausible. There are 15 games Sunday, as per usual, with almost all of them in the afternoon. Here are some recommendations to help you make decisions for your daily fantasy lineup.
PITCHING
Rick Porcello ($43) no longer feels like the pitcher who won the Cy Young, although that was a surprise even at the time. He enters with a 4.31 ERA, but his ERA at home is a healthier 3.71. The Blue Jays may have a promising young hitter in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but they continue to rank in the bottom-five in runs scored.
Brandon Woodruff ($45) is back starting for the Brewers, and his FIP sits at 3.13 along with a 4.02 ERA. He's also struck out 10.51 hitters per nine innings. Meanwhile, the Reds rank poorly in terms of runs scored on the road.
Zach Plesac ($31) has only registered five major-league starts to his name, so his 2.56 ERA has to be taken with a grain of salt. That being said, he's at home against the Tigers on Sunday. The Tigers and Marlins are fighting for the dishonor of having the worst offense in MLB, and no other team comes close. Any pitcher starting against Detroit is at least worth a look.
KEY VALUES/CHALK
Manny Machado ($19) hasn't magically turned the Padres into contenders, but he's been what was expected at the plate. After hitting over 30 homers in each of his last four seasons, he comes in with 16. Pittsburgh's Steven Brault has a 4.90 FIP, which is in line with a 4.71 career FIP.
Carlos Santana ($24) struggled in Philly last year by putting up a .229 batting average, but now he's back in Cleveland and boasts personal bests in batting average, OBP, and slugging percentage. Daniel Norris has never really built upon the promise he had when the Tigers traded for him, and has given up 1.34 home runs per nine innings over his career.
Remember when J.P. Crawford ($15) was considered one of the best prospects in baseball with the Phillies? Well, he's in Seattle now, and it seems like he has finally tapped into that promise. Plus, the issues in his career have largely come against lefties, and Baltimore's Gabriel Ynoa is a righty. Also, Ynoa has struggled to a 6.02 FIP.
The Diamondbacks have lost some of the punch in their lineup from years past, but David Peralta ($15) is still going strong. He also boasts an .889 OPS against lefties since 2017, and a .891 OPS at home during that same time frame. San Francisco's Shaun Anderson is a rookie with seven starts to his name, and enters with a 4.65 FIP.
STACKS
Minnesota Twins vs. Homer Bailey (Royals)
Jorge Polanco (SS -$18), Max Kepler (OF - $27), Eddie Rosario (OF - $18)
Homer Bailey has a 4.82 ERA. That's not good, but it's also the first time he's had an ERA under 5.00 since the 2014 season. So let's grab three big bats for the Twins, who own the best offense in baseball. Oh, and two of these guys are lefties, which is good with a righty like Bailey on the mound.
Polanco has recorded a .324 batting average, which is almost like hitting .400 in the current era of baseball where batting averages are taking a nosedive. He's also posted a 1.012 OPS against right-handed batters. Kepler got off to a bit of a slow start, but he has maintained an OPS over 1.000 over the last month. With 19 homers through 69 games, he's one off of his career high with plenty of time to obliterate that mark. Rosario isn't doing a great job of getting on base, but a lot of that is due to a lack of walking. He's got plenty of power to make up for it with a .512 slugging percentage.
Rangers vs. Ivan Nova (White Sox)
Shin-Soo Choo (OF -$22), Elvis Andrus (SS - $18), Nomar Mazara (OF -$17)
In his first season pitching with the White Sox, Nova has recorded a 6.01 ERA. He's also experienced a lot of issues allowing homers over the last five years. That doesn't bode well in this matchup, as the Rangers' home stadium is usually the go-to reference when baseball types talk about the ball carrying more once the weather warms up. Offense could be on the rise in the Lone Star State.
Choo has been an underrated hitter for a number of years, with a career slash line of .277/.379/.450 that has improved this year. The Korean slugger also does damage with his legs by stealing six bases. Of course, Choo doesn't swipe bases like Andrus, who has managed over 20 stolen bases in every season except one. He's already got 15 this year, and he's posted a .302 batting average. Lastly, Mazara made some noise recently - somewhat literally - in hitting a 505-foot home run. The Dominican outfielder has an .823 OPS at home since 2017, making a home game a great opportunity to stick him in your lineup.
