This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous article: 2-1-1, 0.68 RW Bucks
Season: 37-37-4, -2.40 RW Bucks
We have a typically abbreviated Thursday slate that also features a split schedule, and I have my eye on one matchup in each league that I think offers some viable profit opportunities.
Rangers at Tigers, 1:10 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Mike Foltynewicz vs. Tyler Alexander
The Pick: Tigers over 2.5 runs in first 5 innings (-105) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Tigers -1.5 runs (+160) for 1 RWBuck
Foltynewicz will be working on short rest after only lasting 42 pitches Sunday against the Blue Jays, when he was chased after giving up 10 earned runs in 1.2 innings. The right-hander was solid in his previous four starts (3.76 ERA, 0.80 WHIP), but he's had serious problems keeping the ball in the park all season. Folty has a 2.5 HR/9, and the Tigers have been solid versus righties at home with a .275 average, .340 OBP and .324 wOBA in that split during July. Detroit also averages 2.8 runs per the first five innings at home.
Alexander may not be in the game longer than five innings since he's worked mostly as a reliever this season, but he could well be effective in keeping the Rangers subdued while he's in. Texas has mustered just a .219 average, .253 OBP and .280 wOBA against southpaws on the road in July (162 plate appearances), and manager Chris Woodward likely will rest a couple regulars, at minimum, in a day game following a night game on getaway day.
Cubs at Cardinals, 7:15 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Adbert Alzolay vs. Kwang Hyun Kim
The Pick: Under 8.5 runs (-125) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Kwang Hyun Kim under 2.5 runs allowed (-108) for 1 RWBuck
Alzolay has held his own this season, as his 4-9 record is partly belied by a serviceable 4.59 ERA and solid 1.11 WHIP. However, he's had trouble keeping the ball in the park (2.0 HR/9) and is 1-6 with a 4.89 ERA in 42.1 road innings. He did stymie the Cardinals once at Busch Stadium already, however, limiting St. Louis to two runs in seven innings. The Cards aren't an overly intimidating matchup for visiting righties, either, posting a .248 average, .293 OBP and .305 wOBA in that split during July.
Kim carries a three-start, 19-inning scoreless streak into this matchup, and eventually, something will naturally have to give in that regard. However, Kim has allowed less than three runs on 10 occasions already this season, and he has an impressive 2.77 ERA in 39 home innings. The Cubs were one of his recent victims, as he blanked them in six innings at Wrigley Field two starts ago. Chicago has also been poor when facing lefties on the road, posting a .203/.275/.306 slash line, -11. 5 wRAA and .260 wOBA in that split since June 1.
