This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 2-2, -0.13 RW Bucks
Season: 28-33-3, -6.06 RW Bucks
We have another split slate on tap Thursday, and I'm focusing on a divisional matchup in each league. While I'm going with a relatively heavy favorite in the matinee and doubling up my usual wager amount on that bet, I believe there's an opportunity involving the underdog in the nightcap.
Rangers at A's, 3:37 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Dane Dunning vs. Sean Manaea
The Pick: A's -180 for 2 RWBucks
Secondary Pick: Sean Manaea Over 6.5 strikeouts (-112) for 1 RWBuck
Dunning has been inconsistent all season and has had a bulk of his troubles on the road, where he's pitched to a 7.45 ERA, 1.86 WHIP and 1.2HR/9 across 29.0 innings. The young right-hander has given up at least four earned runs in three of his last four road outings as well, and Thursday, he's facing an Athletics team that posted an 11.3 percent walk rate, .355 wOBA and 134 wRC+ against righties at home in June.
Manaea is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career, posting a 2.91 ERA, a career-high 9.3 K/9 and 12.7 percent swinging strike rate, and a career-low 0.8 HR/9. The left-hander has been especially good at home, going 4-1with a 2.82 ERA in 54.1 innings. He gets a prime matchup against the Rangers, which posted a 29.8 percent strikeout rate, .167 average, .433 OPS and MLB-low .196 wOBA and 23 wRC+ versus lefties on the road in June.
Giants at Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Johnny Cueto vs. Merrill Kelly
The Pick: Under 8.5 runs (+104) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Diamondbacks +120 for 1 RWBuck
Cueto has put together a solid season overall despite a couple hiccups, going 6-3 with a 3.63 ERA while coming within two outs of generating six quality starts. The veteran right-hander has been more vulnerable on the road where he's posted a 4.97 ERA, but he's also generated an excellent 0.7 HR/9 when traveling. The Diamondbacks have also struggled plenty against righties at home in the last month, where they have a 27.5 percent strikeout rate, .206 average, .094 ISO, -12.3 wRAA and MLB-low .265 wOBA.
Kelly has had a rough go of it at times this season, but there's reasons to believe he's potentially clawing out of his early-season hole. The right-hander has given up just one earned run over the 13 innings covering his last two starts, and he also posted a quality start against these same Giants at home back on May 26 when he yielded just two earned runs over six innings. Kelly has been good at home overall, where he sports a 2-2 record, 3.59 ERA and 0.6 HR/9 in 42.2 innings. The Giants, for their outstanding won-loss record, have also been inept against righties on the road, where they've posted a 27.1 percent strikeout rate, .200 average, -11.6 wRAA and .262 wOBA in that split over the last month.
