This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 0-4, -4.00 RW Bucks
Season: 25-29-3, -4.79 RW Bucks
A couple of National League matchups are on tap for Thursday's betting spotlight, ones that feature three pitchers that have had their bumps in the road this season but that have also proven capable of turning in very solid performances. Those higher points of their season inform both of my predictions.
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, 7:10 pm ET
Starting Pitchers: Jon Lester vs. Cody Poteet
The Pick: Nationals moneyline (-116) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Under 8.5 runs (-105) for 1 RWBuck
Lester had back-to-back blowups earlier in the season against the Cubs and Orioles, but he's posted a 2.55 ERA over the 24.2 innings covering his last five starts. Lester has had trouble with the long ball on the road, giving up a 3.1 HR/9 over a modest sample of 14.2 frames. However, the Marlins are arguably about the least intimidating team Lester could face at the moment, as they carry a 29.0 percent strikeout rate, .272 wOBA, 82 wRC+ and have hit just two home runs over the last month at home against southpaws.
Poteet has been solid with a 3.90 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, and he pitched seven scoreless innings in his one prior home start this season. The right-hander hasn't gone very deep into games, however, pitching 4.1 innings or less in his last three starts. Nevertheless, he's allowed more than three earned runs only once, and the Nationals come in with a 27.1 percent strikeout rate, .222 average, -5.9 wRAA and .278 wOBA against righties on the road in the last month.
Both bullpens have also been very good in June – Washington and Miami relievers have pitched to .268 and .303 wOBAs, respectively – putting me in the direction of a narrow Nationals win and the Under.
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, 8:15pm ET
Starting Pitchers: Chad Kuhl vs. Carlos Martinez
The Pick: Under 9.0 runs (-105) for 1 RWBuck
Kuhl's 1-4 record, 5.66 ERA and 1.49 WHIP are all undeniably ugly, but a breakdown of Kuhl's game logs somehow belie those numbers for the most part. The right-hander is coming off an impressive quality start against the Indians (6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER), and he's yielded three earned runs or less in five other outings. Kuhl worst starts have come on the road, but the Cardinals have posted a .226 average, .293 wOBA and -4.5 wRAA against righties at home in the last month.
Martinez has looked lost at times this season, posting a 6.62 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and mediocre 15.6 percent strikeout rate. He's given up between five and 10 earned runs in three of the last four starts and owns a 5.27 ERA in 27.1 home frames. Yet, he, too, gets a favorable matchup on paper Thursday, as the Pirates carry just a .283 OBP, .290 wOBA and -3.1 wRAA against righties on the road in the last month, and Pittsburgh is averaging the second-fewest runs per road game (2.9).
