This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 2-1, +1.05 RW Bucks
Season: 17-23-3, -7.66 RW Bucks
There's a split slate Thursday, but I'm focused on a pair of evening games that appear to offer some solid value on a couple wagers in particular. Neither team I'm taking the moneyline on is an offensive juggernaut by any stretch, but the pitching matchups, including the bullpens, appear to line up in their favor.
Odds are from WynnBet Sportsbook.
Marlins at Pirates, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Elieser Hernandez vs. Tyler Anderson
The Pick: Pirates +100 for 1 RWBuck
Hernandez is due to come off the injured list for this start after a biceps issue kept him out two months to the day. The right-hander made just one start before being shelved, and although he was impressive in his first two rehab assignments with Triple-A Jacksonville, he was lit up by Durham for seven runs (six earned) in his last one. The Pirates have a fairly anemic offense, but the combination of a potentially rusty Hernandez and a bullpen that's allowed a .275 average and .330 OBP on the road in the last month works in their favor.
The Marlins limp into this series opener averaging just 3.7 runs per road game and on a five-game losing streak. Miami has also struggled mightily against left-handed pitching when traveling, posting an MLB-high 34.2 percent strikeout rate against that handedness on the road over the last month, with a -3.4 wRAA, .285 wOBA and 77 wRC. Anderson had a blowup two starts ago against the Braves in Atlanta, but he's otherwise allowed two earned runs or less in his nine other trips to the mound and posted a solid 3.71 ERA at PNC Park.
Diamondbacks at Brewers, 7:40 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Jon Duplantier vs. Brett Anderson
The Pick: Brewers -180 for 1.5 RWBucks
Secondary Pick: Brewers -1.5 (+115) for 1 RWBuck
The Diamondbacks have been one of the most anemic offenses against left-handers on the road this season, with a 31.0 percent strikeout rate, -8.4 wRAA and MLB-low .226 wOBA in that split in the last month. Arizona is 9-21 straight up on the road as well, averaging just 3.8 runs per road game. Anderson is no Cy Young candidate by any stretch, but he's a savvy vet who knows how to limit damage and has a 3.38 home ERA.
Duplantier made his first start of the season against the Cardinals last Thursday and gave up four earned runs on seven hits in 4.2 innings. The right-hander posted a 7.71 ERA at Triple-A Reno in two starts this season, and he also had a rough time at that level in 2019 (5.21 ERA). The Brewers have actually been a better offense on the road, but they do come in as a hot team with an 8-3 mark in their last 11 and will also have the benefit of facing a D-Backs bullpen that's logged the second-most innings in baseball (34.2) in the last week while pitching to a 5.62 ERA, .271 BAA and .337 wOBA on the road in the last month.
