This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 2-3, -1.33 RW Bucks
Season: 14-13-3, -0.67 RW Bucks
We have a typical split slate Thursday on what is getaway day for some teams. I'm staying away from the day games, which often feature lineups without the regulars due to the quick turnaround from the prior night's contest. Instead, I'm focused on two night games and a couple of different bets for each.
Today's wagers exclusively reference WynnBet odds.
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, 8:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers: Mike Foltynewicz vs. Cristian Javier
The Picks: Astros -1.5 (-105); Cristian Javier Over 6.5 strikeouts (-108)
Foltynewicz has had a couple of stumbles but has been reasonably effective overall, with his 4.76 xERA not much higher than his actual 4.50 figure and his xFIP of 4.36 considerably smaller than his 5.70 FIP. His overriding issue has been a propensity for allowing the long ball (2.5 HR/9) but even with that he's managed to mostly limit damage, giving up more than four earned runs in a start just once. He does have a 1-3 mark, however, and he gave up three round trippers to the Angels in his one other road start. He's also facing an Astros team that isn't very kind to righties, particularly at home – Houston sports a .271 average, .809 OPS, 13.4 wRAA and .353 wOBA at Minute Maid Park versus that handedness in the last month.
Javier has been a bit more hittable in his last two starts, but he's still carrying a 2.90 ERA and 30.6 percent strikeout rate. The latter figure makes the strikeout prop pop for me, as the Rangers check in striking out an MLB-high 31.2 percent of the time versus righties on the road over the last month while mustering just a .216 average against that handedness in the split. Javier has allowed more than three earned runs in a start only once, and he owns a 2.01 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 12.1 K/9 and 0.8 HR/9 in 22.1 home frames thus far.
Marlins at Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Trevor Rogers vs. Merrill Kelly
The Picks: Under 8.5 runs (-116) for 1 RWBuck; Trevor Rogers Under 6.5 strikeouts (+120) for 1 RWBuck
Rogers has been one of the big stories of the Marlins season. The young left-hander has a 1.89 ERA and 1.08 WHIP while giving up no more than three earned runs in any start. Rogers has been a tad more hittable on the road, but not by much — he still sports a 2.05 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 22 innings outside his pitcher-friendly home park. The Diamondbacks have been just about average against left-handed pitching at home in the last month with a .317 wOBA and 1.0 wRAA, but they have struck out at an MLB-low 14.9 percent versus that handedness in their home park, leading me to the under on the strikeout prop for Rogers.
Kelly is having somewhat of an unusual season, as he certainly hasn't always looked as bad as his 5.4 ERA and 1.46 WHIP imply. The right-hander actually has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five of seven starts, with the majority of his issues primarily centered within two rough consecutive outings versus the Rockies and Nationals on the road. Therefore, a home matchup against a Marlins squad that averages a middle-of-the-pack 4.1 runs per road game while posting a 27.9 percent strikeout rate, -5.4 wRAA and .295 wOBA against righties when traveling isn't overly intimidating.
