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MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Saturday, June 15
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Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals face off against their division rival in the Miami Marlins in the second game of this three-game series. These teams already played each other in a series this season in Miami and the Nationals swept that four-game series. These teams are going in completely opposite directions with their organizations. The Nationals are toward the end of a rebuild and they are looking up. They have plenty of young talent and impressive prospects, and they are 33-36 on the season, but just two games out of the last Wild Card spot. The Marlins are 23-46 this season after a miserable start to their season, and they are 2-8 in their last 10 games. They made the playoffs last season but they have already traded their best player in Luis Arraez, and optioned their best starting pitcher in Max Meyer to control his service time. They are all in on a long-term rebuild and they don't have many talented prospects, so they have a long way to go until they are finally competing again.
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Trevor Rogers is making the start for the Marlins and he is 1-7 with a 5.37 ERA in 13 starts this season. He has been very hit or miss this season, when he has his good stuff he is pitching very well. But when he doesn't have his good stuff, he pitches very poorly. He has not pitched a quality start the entire season and he has only pitched six innings once this season. He faced the Nationals earlier this season at home and allowed three runs in five innings on his way to the loss. He walked three batters and only struck out three batters. DJ Herz will be making just his third career start and he allowed four earned runs in four innings pitching in his debut. Then he allowed just two earned runs in 4.1 innings pitched in his second game. However, I think he will make a big step in his third game. The Marlins are ranked dead last in the league in wOBA against lefties and he is a tough lefty to pick up. The Nationals aren't too much better, ranked second worst in the league in wOBA against lefties this season, but they have been playing very well overall lately while the Marlins haven't. The Nationals are also much healthier right now with Joey Meneses and Lane Thomas in the lineup against lefties, and Thomas had been hurt most the season so that significantly helps. Joey Gallo was also added to the IL and he has been miserable this season, so the Nationals are finally able to stack righties when they face a lefty.
However, the Nationals also have a bullpen advantage. They are ranked 18th in the league in bullpen ERA while the Marlins aren't too far behind them ranked 20th. But the Nationals' bullpen has a big gap from the top end arms to the bottom end. Their top four relievers are very good and they have been dominant all season. They will also all be available. It's when they are losing that their bullpen isn't great. The Nationals have just been playing too well lately and they have been playing well against the Marlins all season. I like the Nationals to win on the short moneyline at home.
BEST BET
Nationals ML -118 vs. Marlins (FanDuel)
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