Underdog Fantasy: Rankings and Strategy for The Bullpen Contest

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Published on December 27, 2024

Drafting and then doing nothing are two of my favorite things. I should probably get a copyright. It's become my go-to line when writing or talking about best ball drafts. Who knows, maybe someone will buy the rights from me to use for marketing.

The Contest

I'm starting to build up my Underdog Fantasy portfolio. They're running a contest called "The Bullpen: MLB Way Too Early 2025 Season." Let's be honest, is it ever too early to start drafting?

The Bullpen is a best ball contest with a $5 entry and $10,000 top prize. Each league has 12 teams with 20-man rosters. The active roster has three starting pitchers, three infielders, three outfielders and an IF/OF flex. The rules and the scoring system is available HERE.

This is usually the time I suggest downloading the site projections and plugging in the scoring system to garner projected points to guide rankings. This is your lucky day. Underdog Fantasy uses RotoWire's projections, so they do (almost) all the work for you. The available player list that can be ranked in order of projected points or ADP can be accessed HERE.

Proper Ranking

The catch is the rankings are done via raw points. The better way to do it is useful points. Useful points are like points over replacement, but instead of replacement, it's points over the lowest ranked player on an active roster at each position. The problem is that there isn't a perfect representation of the worst active player

The Contest

I'm starting to build up my Underdog Fantasy portfolio. They're running a contest called "The Bullpen: MLB Way Too Early 2025 Season." Let's be honest, is it ever too early to start drafting?

Proper Ranking

Even so, it's best to go through the process to learn if one of the positions' adjusted rankings is significantly off kilter.

Identify IF36, OF36 and P36
Subtract their projected points from the respective positions within the top 36 IF, the top 36 OF and all of the pitchers.
To rank the flex, identify the top remaining IF or OF and subtract their projected points plus one from the remaining IF and OF.

A demonstration is in order.

Here are the players identified using the above:

POS	Player	Proj Pts	Adj Pts
IF36	Adley Rutschman	1162	0
OF36	Matt Wallner	1142	0
P36	Taj Bradley	909	0
IF/OF73	Ozzie Albies	1156	-1

The top 36 projected infielders all have 1162 points subtracted from their projected total, the top 36 outfielders lose 1142 points, and the top 36 pitchers are docked 909 points. The last player at each of these spots now contributes zero useful points.

The flex adjustment looks weird because it shows the remaining IF and OF contributing negative useful points. The 12th flex contributes no useful points, with the rest providing a handful. The problem is subtracting the points from the 12th highest remaining IF/OF would be positive, indicating they added more than the first 72 IF and OF. Don't get hung up on the negative numbers in the ranking. It's done so the flexes are ranked after the first 36 IF and 36 OF.

Here is a look at the top 300 using adjusted points.

	Player	ADP	Proj. Pts.	POS	Adj Pts.
1	Shohei Ohtani	1.1	1862	OF	720
2	Aaron Judge	2.2	1766	OF	624
3	Bobby Witt	3.9	1656	IF	494
4	Jose Ramirez	11.4	1620	IF	458
5	Elly De La Cruz	5.9	1605	IF	443
6	Juan Soto	3.4	1567	OF	425
7	Freddie Freeman	20.3	1571	IF	409
8	Francisco Lindor	18.1	1556	IF	394
9	Kyle Schwarber	14.2	1530	OF	388
10	Mookie Betts	12.6	1549	IF	387
11	Matt Olson	22.7	1540	IF	378
12	Gunnar Henderson	8.9	1529	IF	367
13	Corbin Carroll	10.4	1509	OF	367
14	Kyle Tucker	6.4	1492	OF	350
15	Jarren Duran	12.9	1478	OF	336
16	Vladimir Guerrero	20.7	1487	IF	325
17	Jackson Chourio	17.4	1443	OF	301
18	Zack Wheeler	33.3	1189	P	280
19	Paul Skenes	15.3	1178	P	269
20	Yordan Alvarez	7.6	1399	OF	257
21	Dylan Cease	43.4	1159	P	250
22	Tarik Skubal	22.3	1151	P	242
23	Marcell Ozuna	25.5	1370	OF	228
24	Ian Happ	37.8	1361	OF	219
25	Logan Gilbert	60.5	1121	P	212
26	Blake Snell	54.5	1119	P	210
27	Rafael Devers	28.8	1365	IF	203
28	Julio Rodriguez	15.1	1335	OF	193
29	Brandon Nimmo	51	1333	OF	191
30	Aaron Nola	74.1	1100	P	191
31	Austin Riley	30.3	1342	IF	180
32	Spencer Steer	46.3	1320	OF	178
33	Wyatt Langford	26	1319	OF	177
34	Randy Arozarena	58.3	1318	OF	176
35	Pablo Lopez	74	1084	P	175
36	Bryan Reynolds	41	1315	OF	173
37	Logan Webb	88.4	1082	P	173
38	Corbin Burnes	54.7	1081	P	172
39	Garrett Crochet	48.9	1080	P	171
40	Framber Valdez	84.2	1078	P	169
41	Fernando Tatis	9.8	1303	OF	161
42	Marcus Semien	57.1	1323	IF	161
43	Ketel Marte	35.3	1316	IF	154
44	Jackson Merrill	27.4	1294	OF	152
45	Trea Turner	33.6	1314	IF	152
46	Adolis Garcia	53.7	1293	OF	151
47	Brent Rooker	30.6	1292	OF	150
48	Manny Machado	45.6	1310	IF	148
49	Pete Alonso	37.1	1308	IF	146
50	Gerrit Cole	49	1054	P	145
51	Anthony Santander	43.9	1278	OF	136
52	James Wood	34.8	1275	OF	133
53	Jazz Chisholm	31.3	1274	OF	132
54	William Contreras	63.6	1290	IF	128
55	Bryce Harper	25.2	1287	IF	125
56	Luis Castillo	91.3	1034	P	125
57	Eugenio Suarez	112.8	1283	IF	121
58	Ronald Acuna	18.8	1259	OF	117
59	Christian Walker	69.9	1272	IF	110
60	Cole Ragans	58.2	1017	P	108
61	Kevin Gausman	107.4	1008	P	99
62	Alex Bregman	85	1259	IF	97
63	Nick Castellanos	75.1	1237	OF	95
64	Hunter Greene	85.1	1001	P	92
65	Michael King	75.9	994	P	85
66	Matt Chapman	103.2	1247	IF	85
67	Corey Seager	39.5	1243	IF	81
68	George Kirby	82.9	990	P	81
69	Jurickson Profar	86.7	1223	OF	81
70	Jose Altuve	59.6	1242	IF	80
71	Chris Sale	60.1	989	P	80
72	Seth Lugo	120.2	989	P	80
73	Willy Adames	66.9	1239	IF	77
74	Colton Cowser	81.9	1210	OF	68
75	Matt McLain	96.7	1227	IF	65
76	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	71.8	972	P	63
77	Nico Hoerner	145.6	1222	IF	60
78	Riley Greene	43.4	1201	OF	59
79	Teoscar Hernandez	46.9	1200	OF	58
80	Zac Gallen	106.3	966	P	57
81	Sonny Gray	116.6	966	P	57
82	Jose Berrios	163.9	966	P	57
83	Dansby Swanson	139	1217	IF	55
84	George Springer	111.4	1194	OF	52
85	Chris Bassitt	194.6	957	P	48
86	Shota Imanaga	89.9	955	P	46
87	Seiya Suzuki	63.5	1183	OF	41
88	Roki Sasaki	79.1	950	P	41
89	Nathaniel Lowe	156.6	1199	IF	37
90	Yusei Kikuchi	138.3	944	P	35
91	Lane Thomas	99.5	1173	OF	31
92	Mitch Keller	161.8	938	P	29
93	Josh Naylor	85.6	1185	IF	23
94	Cody Bellinger	74.9	1164	OF	22
95	Steven Kwan	74.8	1163	OF	21
96	Hunter Brown	104.9	929	P	20
97	Freddy Peralta	99.1	927	P	18
98	Yandy Diaz	121	1179	IF	17
99	Xavier Edwards	166.6	1178	IF	16
100	Jack Flaherty	146	922	P	13
101	Ceddanne Rafaela	174.1	1175	IF	13
102	Ezequiel Tovar	101.2	1173	IF	11
103	Alec Bohm	160.2	1170	IF	8
104	Max Fried	109.8	915	P	6
105	Reynaldo Lopez	149.2	911	P	2
106	Adley Rutschman	104.8	1162	IF	0
107	Matt Wallner	163.6	1142	OF	0
108	Taj Bradley	172.2	909	P	0
109	Ozzie Albies	50.4	1156	IF	-1
110	Luis Arraez	143.6	1154	IF	-3
111	Ryan McMahon	164.5	1154	IF	-3
112	Nick Pivetta	190.9	905	P	-4
113	Bailey Ober	116.9	904	P	-5
114	Jordan Westburg	136.9	1149	IF	-8
115	Oneil Cruz	65	1148	IF	-9
116	Vinnie Pasquantino	104.9	1147	IF	-10
117	Justin Steele	137.3	897	P	-12
118	Gleyber Torres	194.9	1144	IF	-13
119	Tanner Bibee	123.5	894	P	-15
120	Zach Eflin	172.1	894	P	-15
121	Cal Raleigh	172.6	1141	IF	-16
122	Max Muncy	178.5	1137	IF	-20
123	Bo Bichette	113.6	1136	IF	-21
124	Kodai Senga	119.1	886	P	-23
125	Jake Burger	136.3	1133	IF	-24
126	Masyn Winn	150.7	1130	IF	-27
127	Jeremy Pena	194.5	1130	IF	-27
128	Tanner Houck	189.4	881	P	-28
129	Bryce Miller	129.7	879	P	-30
130	Triston Casas	80	1122	IF	-35
131	Isaac Paredes	152.9	1121	IF	-36
132	Paul Goldschmidt	164	1121	IF	-36
133	Nathan Eovaldi	186.6	873	P	-36
134	Andres Gimenez	216.2	1120	IF	-37
135	Brandon Pfaadt	178.2	867	P	-42
136	Mike Trout	47.6	1114	OF	-43
137	CJ Abrams	73.6	1113	IF	-44
138	Jake Cronenworth	231.5	1113	IF	-44
139	Erick Fedde	226	864	P	-45
140	Zack Gelof	215.7	1110	IF	-47
141	Junior Caminero	97.3	1109	IF	-48
142	Lucas Giolito	231.5	860	P	-49
143	Salvador Perez	190	1107	IF	-50
144	Jared Jones	143.7	856	P	-53
145	Nolan Arenado	209.7	1104	IF	-53
146	Will Smith	227.5	1099	IF	-58
147	Joe Ryan	135.7	843	P	-66
148	Jonathan India	130	1085	IF	-72
149	Mark Vientos	88.9	1084	IF	-73
150	Wilyer Abreu	173.7	1082	OF	-75
151	Brady Singer	230.4	833	P	-76
152	Christian Yelich	65.1	1080	OF	-77
153	Grayson Rodriguez	113.9	832	P	-77
154	Sean Manaea	164.9	832	P	-77
155	Sandy Alcantara	134.8	830	P	-79
156	Rhys Hoskins	227.3	1076	IF	-81
157	Jorge Soler	113.8	1074	OF	-83
158	Robbie Ray	176.2	826	P	-83
159	Bryson Stott	236	1074	IF	-83
160	Brenton Doyle	78.4	1071	OF	-86
161	Josh Bell	-	1071	IF	-86
162	Dylan Crews	93.9	1070	OF	-87
163	Taylor Ward	91.8	1068	OF	-89
164	Spencer Torkelson	196.6	1062	IF	-95
165	Kerry Carpenter	129.4	1061	OF	-96
166	Lourdes Gurriel	138.9	1061	OF	-96
167	Luis Robert	55.7	1059	OF	-98
168	Carlos Rodon	130.3	809	P	-100
169	Colt Keith	234.2	1057	IF	-100
170	Andrew Vaughn	235.4	1055	IF	-102
171	Lawrence Butler	53	1054	OF	-103
172	Cristopher Sanchez	188.7	806	P	-103
173	Michael Wacha	234.5	803	P	-106
174	Michael Lorenzen	239.7	800	P	-109
175	Royce Lewis	108.3	1046	IF	-111
176	Shane McClanahan	111.3	794	P	-115
177	Matthew Boyd	239.1	790	P	-119
178	Charlie Morton	-	790	P	-119
179	Cedric Mullins	175.2	1036	OF	-121
180	Merrill Kelly	224.6	788	P	-121
181	Logan O'Hoppe	239.3	1036	IF	-121
182	Parker Meadows	143.1	1034	OF	-123
183	Zach Neto	157.4	1033	IF	-124
184	Miles Mikolas	-	783	P	-126
185	Daulton Varsho	204.1	1029	OF	-128
186	Joey Ortiz	239.3	1028	IF	-129
187	Jacob deGrom	68.4	779	P	-130
188	Ha-Seong Kim	234.9	1026	IF	-131
189	Jameson Taillon	239.6	778	P	-131
190	Tyler O'Neill	120	1020	OF	-137
191	Ronel Blanco	204.6	770	P	-139
192	Heliot Ramos	121.1	1010	OF	-147
193	Nick Martinez	239.3	762	P	-147
194	Nolan Jones	156.3	1009	OF	-148
195	Brice Turang	200.7	1009	IF	-148
196	Andrew Heaney	239.6	761	P	-148
197	Luis Gil	143.5	759	P	-150
198	Shane Baz	202.6	754	P	-155
199	Ryan Pepiot	196.6	752	P	-157
200	Bryan Woo	172.5	751	P	-158
201	Tyler Anderson	-	751	P	-158
202	Willi Castro	239.5	998	IF	-159
203	Ryne Nelson	238.6	748	P	-161
204	Yainer Diaz	222.3	994	IF	-163
205	Alex Verdugo	238.2	993	OF	-164
206	Ranger Suarez	236.9	743	P	-166
207	Spencer Arrighetti	176	742	P	-167
208	MacKenzie Gore	152.2	740	P	-169
209	Kutter Crawford	226.9	740	P	-169
210	Brendan Donovan	171.4	981	OF	-176
211	Michael Busch	215	981	IF	-176
212	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	232.2	980	IF	-177
213	Jeff McNeil	-	979	IF	-178
214	Walker Buehler	207.3	730	P	-179
215	Carlos Santana	236.3	978	IF	-179
216	Max Scherzer	239.3	730	P	-179
217	Bryan De La Cruz	210.4	977	OF	-180
218	Jose Quintana	-	729	P	-180
219	Michael Harris	37	973	OF	-184
220	Jackson Holliday	131.7	973	IF	-184
221	Nick Lodolo	211.5	725	P	-184
222	DJ Herz	237.9	725	P	-184
223	Nestor Cortes	231.4	724	P	-185
224	Anthony Volpe	123.3	970	IF	-187
225	Pete Crow-Armstrong	124.4	968	OF	-189
226	JP Sears	239.8	718	P	-191
227	J.P. Crawford	239.6	964	IF	-193
228	Jake McCarthy	205.3	963	OF	-194
229	Josh Lowe	165.3	962	OF	-195
230	Jordan Walker	219.9	960	OF	-197
231	Tommy Edman	176.3	958	IF	-199
232	Brayan Bello	232.3	709	P	-200
233	Nolan Schanuel	240	957	IF	-200
234	Shea Langeliers	237	955	IF	-202
235	Luis Rengifo	239.8	955	IF	-202
236	Andrew Benintendi	239.9	955	OF	-202
237	Dean Kremer	-	706	P	-203
238	Tyler Glasnow	98.2	705	P	-204
239	Ryan Mountcastle	239.1	952	IF	-205
240	Spencer Horwitz	237.5	946	IF	-211
241	Michael Toglia	155.4	943	IF	-214
242	Alec Burleson	193.8	943	OF	-214
243	Brandon Marsh	238	943	OF	-214
244	Christopher Morel	-	943	IF	-214
245	Joc Pederson	208.8	942	OF	-215
246	Jordan Montgomery	239.6	694	P	-215
247	Xander Bogaerts	207.8	941	IF	-216
248	Carlos Correa	227.2	941	IF	-216
249	Andy Pages	233.9	941	OF	-216
250	Brayan Rocchio	-	941	IF	-216
251	Griffin Canning	-	693	P	-216
252	Brandon Lowe	234.7	939	IF	-218
253	Jeimer Candelario	-	938	IF	-219
254	Alex Cobb	-	690	P	-219
255	Wenceel Perez	238.8	935	OF	-222
256	Tyler Fitzgerald	211.2	932	IF	-225
257	Matt Vierling	233.5	931	OF	-226
258	Jose Soriano	239.7	682	P	-227
259	Aaron Civale	238.9	677	P	-232
260	Marcus Stroman	238.6	676	P	-233
261	Reese Olson	238.9	676	P	-233
262	JJ Bleday	139.3	922	OF	-235
263	Andrew McCutchen	239.1	922	OF	-235
264	Mitch Spence	240	674	P	-235
265	Mitchell Parker	238.5	673	P	-236
266	Tobias Myers	236	672	P	-237
267	Gavin Williams	222.5	670	P	-239
268	Jesse Winker	239.9	915	OF	-242
269	Noelvi Marte	238.6	910	IF	-247
270	Yu Darvish	233.5	659	P	-250
271	Andrew Abbott	-	659	P	-250
272	Leody Taveras	237.7	906	OF	-251
273	Luis Garcia	237.8	903	IF	-254
274	Garrett Mitchell	237.4	900	OF	-257
275	MJ Melendez	239.7	900	OF	-257
276	Josh Jung	184.7	895	IF	-262
277	Nick Gonzales	-	894	IF	-263
278	Luis Severino	212.9	644	P	-265
279	Brandon Woodruff	170.9	638	P	-271
280	Heston Kjerstad	212.8	885	OF	-272
281	David Hamilton	-	884	IF	-273
282	Andre Pallante	-	634	P	-275
283	Willson Contreras	192.9	880	IF	-277
284	Justin Verlander	-	631	P	-278
285	Jesus Sanchez	211.4	874	OF	-283
286	Maikel Garcia	238	870	IF	-287
287	Austin Wells	237.3	869	IF	-288
288	Mike Yastrzemski	239.7	869	OF	-288
289	Tyler Stephenson	239.7	868	IF	-289
290	Jasson Dominguez	94.9	861	OF	-296
291	Giancarlo Stanton	159	861	OF	-296
292	Hunter Renfroe	239.1	861	OF	-296
293	Evan Carter	146.8	855	OF	-302
294	Trevor Larnach	-	852	OF	-305
295	Michael Conforto	182	849	OF	-308
296	Sean Murphy	-	848	IF	-309
297	Jonah Heim	-	841	IF	-316
298	Orlando Arcia	235.6	837	IF	-320
299	J.D. Martinez	239.3	837	OF	-320
300	Lars Nootbaar	191.1	836	OF	-321

Here are the number of players per position in the top 10, 20 and 50:

Projected Points

POS	Top 10	Top 20	Top 50
IF	7	10	25
OF	3	10	25
P	0	0	0

Adjusted Points

POS	Top 10	Top 20	Top 50
IF	6	9	16
OF	4	9	21
P	0	2	13

ADP

POS	Top 10	Top 20	Top 50
IF	3	7	18
OF	7	12	26
P	0	1	6

There are no pitchers in the Top 50 using projected points. The adjusted points bring in too many according to the ADP. Some of that could be difference in projections, but it's mostly strategy. Pitchers with two starts, or especially favorable matchups may outpoint some the top three pitchers in a scoring period, so it makes sense to fade the position relative to the others.

The ADP shows seven OF compared to three IF in the top 10, but the projected and adjusted have more infielders, with the adjusted tilting things a little towards outfielders. There is no doubt a scarcity aspect to the outfield (three positions plus DH encompass OF, four positions plus catcher comprise IF). Underdog drafters are aware of this and focus on OF early, perhaps too much.

If you're more comfortable uploading your own list with OF and P pushed up relative to IF, tweak the positional replacement to make it more representative.

Strategy

In a shorter competition, like the second half or playoff leagues, I'll roster only six P. However, over the full season, I draft at least seven, sometimes eight (but usually seven). There is more of a chance of losing a pitcher over 162 games than the shorter time frames.

Once you get to the flex, IF predominates, so I usually choose seven IF and six OF, yielding a typical roster of 6P/7IF/6OF. At $5 an entry, this contest is destined for multiple entries so it's fine to try a few different configurations until you land one you favor.

Whether you force them up using tweaked replacement, or do it intuitively, you must address OF and P earlier than the adjusted ranking. It's almost imperative to take at least one OF with the first two picks, and then other in the next pair. Ideally, you have either 1IF/3 OF or 2IF/2OF after four rounds. Occasionally, if a top P slips, I'll have 1P/1IF/2OF in my first four.

I don't force my OF3, but don't wait too long before drafting at least six OF; the pool thins fast, leaving suitable IF and P for the later rounds.

You'll often read or hear about stacking in the best ball formats. This is drafting multiple players from the same team. The notion is if the team has a favorable schedule, you get multiple players benefiting and hopefully jumping into your active lineup. Of course, the opposite can occur if a team is slated for only five games or is earmarked to face one of the better rotations. Stacking is more effective in the shorter contests, especially the playoff version. I may look to pair my OF5-6 and IF5-7 with someone else on my roster, but I don't worry about stacking with my first 12 or so picks.

Underdog assigns you to a draft spot once the 12-team league fills. Getting a top three spot assures you of a top OF (Ohtani, Judge or Soto). Don't get cute. As tempting as it may be to click on Bobby Witt, take the OF and join another league, hoping for 1.04.

The time to get creative is at the end of the first round. Even then, it's best to jump an OF up the rankings, but double tapping IF at 1.12 and seeing how it plays out is a viable approach. Again, this is designed for multiple entries, so there is nothing wrong with experimenting.

I'm happy to answer any questions in the comments, but please do me a favor. If you're in a draft with ToddZ, go easy on him.