Top MLB Player Prop Bets to Watch for August 1: Expert Picks & Insights
The trade deadline resulted in a busy Thursday across baseball. As the dust settles, all 30 teams are scheduled to be in action Friday. Let's sift through the matchups and highlight three player props to consider.
Mike Barner's season record: 61-39 (+8.00 units)
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Best MLB Player Prop Bets August 1
Philadelphia Phillies 
vs. Detroit Tigers 
Betting Picks
- Jack Flaherty over 2.5 earned runs allowed (+115) at DraftKings Sportsbook for 1 Unit
- Kyle Schwarber over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-105) at DraftKings Sportsbook for 1 Unit
The Tigers bolstered the back end of their starting rotation at the deadline by trading for Chris Paddack and Charlie Morton. They will turn to Flaherty and his 1.6 HR/9 against the Phillies. That stat could be troublesome for him because the Phillies have the seventh-highest home slugging percentage in baseball. Flaherty has a 1.13 WHIP at home this season, but he has a 1.51 WHIP on the road. He has made nine road starts this season, allowing at least three earned runs in six of them. We get plus odds on him allowing at least three earned runs against the Phillies, making it an appealing wager.
With Flaherty giving up a lot of home runs and struggling on the road, Schwarber has the potential for a big night at the plate. Over his last 12 games, Schwarber is 14-for-47 (.298) with a .400 OBP, seven home runs, 17 RBI and 10 runs scored. He also has a .976 OPS at home this season. He could blow past two combined hits, runs and RBI.
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Toronto Blue Jays 
vs. Kansas City Royals 
Betting Picks
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-140) at DraftKings Sportsbook for 1 Unit
The Royals added to their starting rotation at the trade deadline, acquiring Bailey Falter and Ryan Bergert. They recently lost Kris Bubic (shoulder) for the rest of the season, so they needed some reinforcements. Michael Wacha gets their first start after the deadline. He has a 3.53 ERA this season, although his 4.02 xERA and 4.40 xFIP aren't as impressive. He does a good job of limiting home runs, but he doesn't blow hitters away with his 18.4% strikeout rate. Most of his success has come at home. On the road, he has a 5.01 xFIP and a 1.29 WHIP.
The Blue Jays have surged to the top of the AL East with Guerrero swinging a hot bat. Over his last 20 games, he is 27-for-74 (.365) with a .478 OBP, 13 RBI and 17 runs scored. He has drawn as many walks this season as he has strikeouts, and he has just a 15.4% strikeout rate for his career. Facing a pitcher who usually pitches to contact, Guerrero is in a favorable spot to remain locked in at the plate.
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MLB Player Prop Picks Recap
- Jack Flaherty over 2.5 earned runs allowed (+115) at DraftKings Sportsbook for 1 Unit
- Kyle Schwarber over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-105) at DraftKings Sportsbook for 1 Unit
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-140) at DraftKings Sportsbook for 1 Unit
