The Z Files: The Wisdom of Crowds and ATC Projections

The Z Files: The Wisdom of Crowds and ATC Projections

This article is part of our The Z Files series.

The wisdom of crowds is a powerful force. The theory suggests that aggregate opinions of a fair cross-section of individuals are more representative than any single opinion.

Average Draft Position (ADP) is often considered to be an example of the wisdom of a crowd, but it doesn't meet an important criterion. The ADP isn't a collective opinion of the player pool; it skews toward how the most aggressive drafters feel about each player. It's a biased sample, and a tenet for wisdom of crowds theory is that the individual contributions are diverse and unbiased.

Another instance is the ATC projections, which RotoWire is excited to provide again this season. For those who are not familiar, they are the brainchild of Fangraphs' Ariel Cohen. ATC projections are a weighted average of several trusted projection systems. Technically, the fact they are weighted averages precludes them from being a true case of the wisdom of crowds. Ariel would contend that using weighted averages renders them better than a random crowd, since he painstakingly back-tests all of the contributing systems to identify which is "best" at specific components of the projections. The weighted average element favors those systems deemed better at specific aspects of the projections.

As a personal aside, I have yet to encounter a means of testing projections I trust. Even so, I am a believer in the wisdom of crowds, and even though the ATC projections aren't a perfect illustration of the concept, theoretically they are superior to any individual contributor.

The wisdom of crowds is a powerful force. The theory suggests that aggregate opinions of a fair cross-section of individuals are more representative than any single opinion.

Average Draft Position (ADP) is often considered to be an example of the wisdom of a crowd, but it doesn't meet an important criterion. The ADP isn't a collective opinion of the player pool; it skews toward how the most aggressive drafters feel about each player. It's a biased sample, and a tenet for wisdom of crowds theory is that the individual contributions are diverse and unbiased.

Another instance is the ATC projections, which RotoWire is excited to provide again this season. For those who are not familiar, they are the brainchild of Fangraphs' Ariel Cohen. ATC projections are a weighted average of several trusted projection systems. Technically, the fact they are weighted averages precludes them from being a true case of the wisdom of crowds. Ariel would contend that using weighted averages renders them better than a random crowd, since he painstakingly back-tests all of the contributing systems to identify which is "best" at specific components of the projections. The weighted average element favors those systems deemed better at specific aspects of the projections.

As a personal aside, I have yet to encounter a means of testing projections I trust. Even so, I am a believer in the wisdom of crowds, and even though the ATC projections aren't a perfect illustration of the concept, theoretically they are superior to any individual contributor.

It's not a secret that I generate my own projections. Even though they are not part of the ATC sample, I admit ATC projections are better than mine. I don't believe there is a way to prove it, but as a believer in the wisdom of crowds, I'll cede the point.

Now I have a conundrum. I wholly believe in my system, but I know there are better foundations for my personal drafts and auctions. (Or are there?)

I have long contended that it's not the projections, but what you do with them. Clearly, injuries and how hard one works in-season are paramount. That said, if 15 drafters use the same set of projections (mine, ATC, Jeff Erickson's, whatever), one drafter is going to think we're a genius, one will feel we're a moron and the other 13 will be somewhere in between.

Furthermore, say a projection set is perfect, with every player drafted commensurate with their ranking. Every player on the fantasy team performs exactly as expected. Again, injuries play a part, but such a team still wouldn't be assured of winning. Champions need players to exceed expectations. That can happen due to superior team construction, being ahead of the crowd on particular players, and even simply dumb luck.

Improving team construction is an ongoing personal struggle. I'm not completely inept. While I am not happy with my recent performances in public-facing leagues, every season I fare well in some private leagues and I've had my moments, with LABR, Tout Wars, TGFBI NERF and multiple NFBC titles on my ledger. I just need to be more consistent.

Being ahead of the market (or crowd, to stick to the theme) entails comparing my projections to the ADP and ATC to pinpoint the players I favor. The first step is putting my evaluation under the microscope to make sure I'm not missing anything. If I confirm my bullish analysis, this is a means to profit relative to the market. Realistically, I won't draft 23 players on whom I am more favorable and be right on all of them. I need to be practical, and trust the wisdom of the crowd in the scenarios where I am not drafting strictly off my rankings. Assuming the ADP is representative of the league in which I'm drafting, I'll use it to get a sense of where I am relative to the market. However, I'm also curious where I stand in player rankings, which is best gleaned by comparing my projections to ATC.

That leaves luck. Cite your favorite axiom. Mine is, "The harder I work, the luckier I become." Clearly, there will be players with unpredictably good (or bad) performances. No level of preparation can unveil the unidentifiable.

The truth is, not everything appearing to be good fortune is completely lucky. You can put yourself in a position to take a shot at an unknown. My favorite ploy in this realm is to draft higher-skilled players that don't have an obvious pathway to playing time. A projection combines two components: rate of production and playing time. A less skilled player expected to garner more plate appearances will be ranked higher than his more highly skilled counterpart if the latter is expected to see the field less often.

When one of these higher-skilled players logs unexpected playing time, those with fantasy shares in him are deemed lucky. OK, sure, garnering the playing time is serendipitous, but being aware of the potential rewards from that extra action emanates from hard work.

For years, I took my projections and mimicked Steamer 600, allotting exactly 600 plate appearances to everyone I projected, then running their expected rotisserie earnings. The idea was by normalizing everyone, the earnings would be based strictly on skills (and team context). Better teams should generate more runs, boosting runs and RBI, along with wins and saves for the pitching cohort. Players who jumped up in those rankings relative to the regular version were the prime targets for "getting lucky with playing time."

Lately, I have been doing this using ATC projections in lieu of mine. The ATC 600, if you will. Hmm, that sounds like a car race. Anyway, since in a global sense player skills should be better reflected in ATC, it makes sense to use them as the foundation for this analysis, since I'm ranking based on skills.

What follows is a table of every batter included in the ATC projections. Their 15-team, standard 5x5 projected earnings are listed, along with their ATC 600 earnings. The difference is calculated, with a positive number reflecting being worth more in ATC 600. Everyone's respective ranking (and the difference) is also provided, again with a positive difference meaning the player is ranked higher in ATC 600. The table is sortable.

PLAYERTMQPOSStandardATC 600Diff $Std RankATC 600 RankDiff Rank
1Shohei OhtaniLADDH$52$71$19110
2Bobby WittKCRSS$47$51$424-2
3Aaron JudgeNYYOF$41$63$22321
4Jose RamirezCLE3B$39$40$248-4
5Elly De La CruzCINSS$38$36-$3514-9
6Kyle TuckerCHCOF$35$40$567-1
7Vladimir GuerreroTOR1B$34$36$2713-6
8Corbin CarrollARIOF$34$34$1816-8
9Yordan AlvarezHOUOF$33$52$18936
10Fernando TatisSDPOF$33$41$71064
11Julio RodriguezSEAOF$33$32-$11118-7
12Juan SotoNYMOF$33$40$71293
13Gunnar HendersonBALSS$33$36$413112
14Mookie BettsLADSSOF$33$37$514104
15Francisco LindorNYMSS$30$29-$11524-9
16Freddie FreemanLAD1B$30$31$01621-5
17Jackson ChourioMILOF$30$27-$21727-10
18Ronald AcunaATLOF$29$48$1818513
19Trea TurnerPHISS$29$27-$21928-9
20Jazz ChisholmNYY3BOF$28$29$12025-5
21Jarren DuranBOSOF$27$20-$82143-22
22Jackson MerrillSDPOF$27$25-$22235-13
23Bryce HarperPHI1B$26$31$523203
24Ketel MarteARI2B$26$34$824177
25Michael HarrisATLOF$25$27$22529-4
26Rafael DeversBOS3B$25$30$526233
27Austin RileyATL3B$25$29$427261
28Manny MachadoSDP3B$24$25$22831-3
29William ContrerasMILC$23$19-$42947-18
30Teoscar HernandezLADOF$22$25$33032-2
31Brent RookerATHDH$22$30$831229
32Jose AltuveHOU2B$22$15-$73263-31
33Corey SeagerTEXSS$22$36$15331221
34Marcell OzunaATLDH$21$26$534304
35Oneil CruzPITSSOF$21$21$03538-3
36Matt OlsonATL1B$21$24$336360
37Wyatt LangfordTEXOF$21$20-$13740-3
38Pete AlonsoNYM1B$21$25$438344
39CJ AbramsWSNSS$20$15-$63965-26
40Ozzie AlbiesATL2B$19$16-$34056-16
41James WoodWSNOF$19$17-$24152-11
42Luis ArraezSDP1B2B$19$0-$1942215-173
43Brenton DoyleCOLOF$19$14-$54368-25
44Xavier EdwardsMIASS$19$0-$1944225-181
45Yainer DiazHOUC$18$16-$24558-13
46Bryan ReynoldsPITOF$18$11-$84694-48
47Josh NaylorARI1B$18$20$247416
48Luis RobertCHWOF$18$17-$14851-3
49Lawrence ButlerATHOF$17$16-$14957-8
50Seiya SuzukiCHCOF$17$17$050500
51Kyle SchwarberPHIDH$17$23$6513714
52Luis GarciaWSN2B$17$12-$55279-27
53Salvador PerezKCRC1B$17$12-$55374-21
54Adley RutschmanBALC$17$10-$754100-46
55Ezequiel TovarCOLSS$17$8-$955118-63
56Anthony SantanderTOROF$17$19$3564610
57Steven KwanCLEOF$16$1-$1657204-147
58Christian YelichMILOF$16$20$3584414
59Willy AdamesSFGSS$16$11-$55984-25
60Jeremy PenaHOUSS$16$3-$1360181-121
61Bo BichetteTORSS$16$8-$861109-48
62Riley GreeneDETOF$16$13-$36270-8
63Marcus SemienTEX2B$15$9-$663104-41
64Vinnie PasquantinoKCR1B$15$14-$16466-2
65Alec BohmPHI3B$15$8-$765113-48
66Willson ContrerasSTLC$15$12-$36675-9
67Jordan WestburgBAL2B3B$15$15$067625
68Alex BregmanBOS3B$15$11-$46889-21
69Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHCOF$15$11-$46988-19
70Matt McLainCINSS$15$19$4704822
71Christian WalkerHOU1B$15$17$2715417
72Randy ArozarenaSEAOF$15$8-$772119-47
73Bryson StottPHI2B$15$1-$1373196-123
74Cody BellingerNYY1BOF$15$16$1745915
75Taylor WardLAAOF$14$8-$775115-40
76Ian HappCHCOF$14$8-$776117-41
77Yandy DiazTBR1B$14$4-$1177167-90
78Will SmithLADC$14$16$2786018
79Andres GimenezTOR2B$14-$1-$1579228-149
80Nick CastellanosPHIOF$14$8-$680108-28
81Matt ChapmanSFG3B$14$11-$38187-6
82Xander BogaertsSDP2BSS$14$3-$1182172-90
83Dylan CrewsWSNOF$14$5-$983148-65
84Dansby SwansonCHCSS$14$6-$784132-48
85Cal RaleighSEAC$14$12-$1857213
86Nico HoernerCHC2B$13$2-$1186186-100
87Lourdes GurrielARIOF$13$11-$28793-6
88Lane ThomasCLEOF$13$8-$588111-23
89Jake BurgerTEX1B3B$13$17$4895336
90Spencer SteerCIN1BOF$13$7-$590122-32
91Mike TroutLAAOF$13$35$22911576
92Adolis GarciaTEXOF$13$12$0927616
93Jake McCarthyARIOF$13$7-$593121-28
94Luis RengifoLAA2B3B$13$6-$694134-40
95Brice TurangMIL2B$13-$4-$1795302-207
96Junior CamineroTBR3B$12$12$0967323
97Zach NetoLAASS$12$15$3976433
98Victor RoblesSEAOF$12$3-$998174-76
99Paul GoldschmidtNYY1B$12$7-$599126-27
100Masyn WinnSTLSS$12$1-$11100205-105
101Logan O'HoppeLAAC$12$11-$11018615
102Shea LangeliersATHC$12$13$11027131
103Anthony VolpeNYYSS$12-$1-$13103244-141
104Mark VientosNYM3B$12$11$01048519
105Josh LoweTBROF$12$12$01058124
106J.T. RealmutoPHIC$11$12$11067828
107Tommy EdmanLADOF$11$8-$4107120-13
108Gabriel MorenoARIC$11$8-$3108116-8
109Jasson DominguezNYYOF$11$12$11098029
110George SpringerTOROF$11$4-$7110168-58
111Cedric MullinsBALOF$11$9-$11111038
112Gleyber TorresDET2B$10-$2-$12112256-144
113Tyler StephensonCINC$10$9-$111310211
114Brandon NimmoNYMOF$10$4-$6114153-39
115Triston CasasBOS1B$10$12$21157738
116Maikel GarciaKCR2B3B$10-$2-$11116252-136
117Heliot RamosSFGOF$10$6-$4117139-22
118Francisco AlvarezNYMC$10$11$21188335
119Jurickson ProfarATLOF$10$2-$8119194-75
120Royce LewisMIN3B$10$20$101204278
121Brendan DonovanSTL2BOF$10$0-$10121218-97
122Andrew VaughnCHW1B$9$2-$8122195-73
123Colton CowserBALOF$9$11$21239231
124Nolan ArenadoSTL3B$9$0-$9124217-93
125Zack GelofATH2B$9-$1-$9125234-109
126Jung Hoo LeeSFGOF$8$2-$7126191-65
127Eugenio SuarezARI3B$8$6-$2127135-8
128Austin WellsNYYC$8$5-$3128147-19
129Nathaniel LoweWSN1B$8-$1-$9129245-116
130Kerry CarpenterDETOF$8$20$121304585
131Tyler FitzgeraldSFGSS$8$4-$4131159-28
132Jonathan IndiaKCR2B$8$0-$8132220-88
133Carlos CorreaMINSS$8$11$31339043
134Keibert RuizWSNC$8$0-$8134223-89
135Jesus SanchezMIAOF$8$7$013512312
136Ryan MountcastleBAL1B$7$7$013612511
137Parker MeadowsDETOF$7$0-$7137214-77
138Ryan McMahonCOL3B$7-$4-$11138281-143
139Ryan JeffersMINC$7$9$213910534
140Alec BurlesonSTLOF$7$9$214010634
141Willi CastroMIN2B3BSSOF$7-$1-$8141241-100
142Isaac ParedesHOU3B$7$3-$4142177-35
143Jorge SolerLAAOF$7$12$51438261
144TJ FriedlCINOF$7$6-$11441422
145Sean MurphyATLC$7$7$014513015
146Colt KeithDET2B$6$2-$4146184-38
147Michael BuschCHC1B$6$4-$2147165-18
148Connor WongBOSC$6$3-$3148180-32
149Matt ShawCHC3B$6$6$014913118
150Ivan HerreraSTLC$6$5-$11501446
151Tyler O'NeillBALOF$6$18$1215149102
152Brandon MarshPHIOF$6$5-$11521493
153Byron BuxtonMINOF$6$25$1915333120
154Connor NorbyMIA3B$6$1-$4154200-46
155Michael TogliaCOL1B$5$7$115512728
156Matt WallnerMINOF$5$11$61569165
157Alejandro KirkTORC$5-$2-$7157261-104
158Joey OrtizMIL3B$5-$4-$9158293-135
159Brandon LoweTBR2B$5$15$101596198
160Josh JungTEX3B$5$5$016014515
161Matt VierlingDET3BOF$5-$2-$6161253-92
162Lars NootbaarSTLOF$5$4-$11621602
163Nolan JonesCOLOF$4$2-$2163183-20
164Garrett MitchellMILOF$4$6$216413628
165Christopher MorelTBR2B3B$4$5$116514322
166JJ BledayATHOF$4-$4-$8166287-121
167Joc PedersonTEXDH$4$21$1716739128
168Thairo EstradaCOL2B$4$4-$1168169-1
169Ceddanne RafaelaBOSSSOF$4$5$116915118
170Andrew BenintendiCHWOF$4-$7-$11170347-177
171Jake CronenworthSDP1B2B$4-$7-$11171345-174
172Hunter GoodmanCOLCOF$4$10$71729676
173Wilyer AbreuBOSOF$4$10$61739776
174Daulton VarshoTOROF$4$2-$2174187-13
175Joey BartPITC$4$4$01751669
176Josh BellWSN1B$4-$3-$7176275-99
177Nolan SchanuelLAA1B$4-$10-$13177400-223
178Masataka YoshidaBOSDH$4$6$217813840
179Jacob YoungWSNOF$4-$11-$14179421-242
180Max MuncyLAD3B$3$14$1018069111
181Bo NaylorCLEC$3$0-$3181211-30
182Danny JansenTBRC$3$4$118215428
183Patrick BaileySFGC$3-$6-$9183326-143
184Jordan WalkerSTLOF$3-$4-$7184285-101
185Otto LopezMIA2B$3-$5-$8185308-123
186Ke'Bryan HayesPIT3B$3-$10-$13186403-217
187Rhys HoskinsMIL1B$3$6$318714047
188Jonah HeimTEXC$3-$2-$4188250-62
189Hyeseong KimLAD2B$3-$2-$5189259-70
190Trevor LarnachMINOF$3$8$519011476
191Trevor StoryBOSSS$2-$1-$3191230-39
192Isiah Kiner-FalefaPIT2B3BSS$2-$10-$12192414-222
193Luis CampusanoSDPC$2$4$219315241
194Jo AdellLAAOF$2$10$81949995
195Luke RaleySEA1BOF$2$8$619510788
196Ha-Seong KimTBRSS$2-$3-$5196270-74
197Jacob WilsonATHSS$2-$8-$10197378-181
198Jeimer CandelarioCIN1B3B$2$2$01981926
199Jake FraleyCINOF$2$3$219917623
200Giancarlo StantonNYYDH$1$14$1320067133
201Miguel AmayaCHCC$1-$2-$3201255-54
202Sal FrelickMILOF$1-$7-$9202355-153
203Evan CarterTEXOF$1$3$220317528
204Christian Encarnacion-StrandCIN1B$1$16$1520455149
205Nick GonzalesPIT2B$1-$3-$4205280-75
206Michael MasseyKCR2B$1$1$02062015
207Travis d'ArnaudLAAC$1$6$520714166
208Jose MirandaMIN3B$1-$5-$6208316-108
209Freddy FerminKCRC$1-$2-$3209268-59
210Tyler SoderstromATH1B$1-$1-$1210238-28
211Michael ConfortoLADOF$0$6$621113774
212Kyle HigashiokaTEXC$0$4$421215854
213Ryan O'HearnBAL1BOF$0$10$9213101112
214Jake RogersDETC$0-$1-$1214243-29
215Agustin RamirezMIAC$0$4$421516154
216Nick FortesMIAC$0-$10-$10216413-197
217Elias DiazSDPC$0-$7-$7217348-131
218Endy RodriguezPITC$0-$1-$1218236-18
219Carson KellyCHCC$0-$4-$4219294-75
220Jeff McNeilNYM2BOF-$1-$10-$10220412-192
221Mitch GarverSEAC-$1-$2-$1221258-37
222Tommy PhamPITOF-$1-$9-$8222387-165
223Jacob StallingsCOLC-$1-$8-$6223361-138
224Carlos SantanaCLE1B-$1-$10-$8224401-177
225Chas McCormickHOUOF-$1$1$322519827
226Christian VazquezMINC-$1-$9-$8226396-170
227Gary SanchezBALC-$1$3$522717354
228Jackson HollidayBAL2B-$1-$2-$1228264-36
229Austin HaysCINOF-$2$0$222921316
230Victor CaratiniHOUC-$2-$1$1230242-12
231Jose TrevinoCINC-$2-$2$0231263-32
232David FryCLEC1BOF-$2$5$623215082
233Alex Verdugo OF-$2-$5-$4233320-87
234Brayan RocchioCLESS-$2-$16-$14234508-274
235Gavin LuxCIN2B-$2$0$223521223
236Geraldo PerdomoARISS-$2-$11-$9236431-195
237Jonny DeLucaTBROF-$2-$8-$5237360-123
238MJ MelendezKCROF-$2-$4-$2238301-63
239J.P. CrawfordSEASS-$2-$16-$14239514-275
240Jonathan ArandaTBR1B-$2$7$9240129111
241Edgar QueroCHWC-$2$0$224122219
242Kyle IsbelKCROF-$2-$6-$4242336-94
243Leody TaverasTEXOF-$2-$1$224322617
244Spencer HorwitzPIT1B2B-$2-$4-$2244300-56
245Kyle ManzardoCLEDH-$2$1$324521035
246Dillon DinglerDETC-$2-$5-$2246312-66
247Max KeplerPHIOF-$3-$3$0247269-22
248Drew RomoCOLC-$3-$6-$3248321-73
249Kyle TeelCHWC-$3-$1$224922920
250James McCann C-$3-$2$1250262-12
251Yasmani Grandal C-$3-$7-$4251343-92
252Adrian Del CastilloARIC-$3$2$525218963
253Dylan MooreSEA2B3BSSOF-$3-$3$0253277-24
254Deyvison De Los SantosMIA1B-$4$1$425420747
255Pedro PagesSTLC-$4-$6-$3255335-80
256Korey LeeCHWC-$4-$9-$6256398-142
257Jose SiriNYMOF-$4$5$9257146111
258Justin Turner 1B-$4-$5-$1258318-60
259Mike YastrzemskiSFGOF-$4-$5-$1259319-60
260Heston KjerstadBALOF-$4$4$8260156104
261Andrew McCutchenPITDH-$4-$8-$4261372-111
262Tom MurphySFGC-$4-$2$2262267-5
263Victor ScottSTLOF-$4-$14-$9263470-207
264J.D. Martinez DH-$4$2$626418876
265Gio UrshelaATH3B-$5-$15-$11265500-235
266Jake MeyersHOUOF-$5-$8-$3266363-97
267Jose CaballeroTBR2B3BSS-$5-$1$426723730
268Jose TenaWSN3B-$5-$8-$3268365-97
269Yoan MoncadaLAA3B-$5-$11-$6269429-160
270Carlos NarvaezBOSC-$5-$10-$5270415-145
271Jorge PolancoSEA2B-$5-$11-$6271420-149
272Starling MarteNYMOF-$5$4$8272170102
273Ben RortvedtTBRC-$5-$15-$10273489-216
274Luis TorrensNYMC-$5-$6-$1274325-51
275Eric HaaseMILC-$5-$2$427525124
276Orlando ArciaATLSS-$5-$15-$10276497-221
277Brooks LeeMINSS-$5-$12-$7277446-169
278LaMonte WadeSFG1B-$5-$9-$4278392-114
279Drake BaldwinATLC-$5-$4$2279282-3
280Jesse WinkerNYMOF-$6-$7-$2280353-73
281Roman AnthonyBOSOF-$6-$1$528123150
282Austin BarnesLADC-$6-$13-$7282453-171
283Ernie ClementTOR3BSS-$6-$4$2283292-9
284Christian BethancourtTORC-$6-$1$528423252
285Matt ThaissCHWC-$6-$13-$7285457-172
286Johan RojasPHIOF-$6-$2$428625729
287Riley AdamsWSNC-$6-$8-$2287366-79
288Henry DavisPITC-$6-$4$2288304-16
289Alex JacksonNYYC-$6-$7-$1289351-62
290Mike TauchmanCHWOF-$6-$7$0290341-51
291Lenyn SosaCHW2B3B-$6-$14-$7291473-182
292Nolan GormanSTL2B-$6$6$13292133159
293Yan Gomes C-$7-$5$2293314-21
294Andy PagesLADOF-$7$11$1729495199
295Luke MaileKCRC-$7-$15-$9295495-200
296Tyler HeinemanTORC-$7-$18-$12296540-244
297Drew MillasWSNC-$7-$3$429727324
298Rafael MarchanPHIC-$7-$8-$2298380-82
299Liam HicksMIAC-$7-$14-$7299468-169
300Dalton RushingLADC-$7$1$8300199101
301Jonah BrideMIA1B-$7-$14-$7301479-178
302Wenceel PerezDETOF-$7-$8-$1302375-73
303Kristian CampbellBOS2B-$7$7$14303128175
304Josh SmithTEX3BSS-$7-$9-$2304384-80
305Garrett StubbsPHIC-$7-$15-$8305492-187
306Caleb DurbinMIL2B-$7-$5$2306317-11
307Josh RojasCHW3B-$7-$14-$7307480-173
308Jhonny PeredaATHC-$7-$16-$8308506-198
309Seth BrownATH1BOF-$7-$2$630924960
310Hunter RenfroeKCROF-$7-$6$1310339-29
311Blake SabolBOSC-$7-$1$631124863
312Jason DelayPITC-$7-$16-$9312522-210
313Austin HedgesCLEC-$7-$24-$16313586-273
314Jhonkensy NoelCLEOF-$7$1$8314203111
315Dairon BlancoKCROF-$8$31$3931519296
316Jose HerreraARIC-$8-$17-$9316529-213
317Chadwick TrompATLC-$8-$9-$1317388-71
318Mickey MoniakLAAOF-$8$0$831821999
319Moises BallesterosCHCC-$8-$1$631924772
320Mauricio DubonHOU1B2BOF-$8-$13-$5320451-131
321Miguel VargasCHW3BOF-$8-$12-$4321449-128
322Tomas NidoDETC-$8-$14-$6322481-159
323Ty FranceMIN1B-$8-$10-$2323411-88
324Curt CasaliATLC-$8-$16-$8324505-181
325Jordan BeckCOLOF-$8-$10-$2325404-79
326Alek ThomasARIOF-$8$0$8326224102
327Jeferson QueroMILC-$8-$1$832723394
328Omar NarvaezCHWC-$8-$19-$11328549-221
329Mark Canha 1BOF-$8-$11-$3329435-106
330Wilmer FloresSFG1B-$8-$8$1330362-32
331Martin MaldonadoSDPC-$9-$15-$6331488-157
332Logan DriscollTBRC-$9-$9-$1332395-63
333Austin WynnsCINC-$9-$7$2333344-11
334Brendan Rodgers 2B-$9-$8$0334383-49
335Kyle McCannATHC-$9-$13-$5335462-127
336Harrison BaderMINOF-$9$0$9336216120
337Sam HuffSFGC-$9-$9$0337389-52
338Seby ZavalaBOSC-$9-$16-$8338513-175
339Jair CamargoMINC-$9-$9$0339385-46
340Brett SullivanSDPC-$9-$8$1340369-29
341Rene PintoARIC-$9$1$9341209132
342Max StassiSFGC-$9-$14-$5342471-129
343Reese McGuireCHCC-$9-$20-$12343552-209
344Tyler BlackMILDH-$9-$4$534429549
345Kris BryantCOLDH-$9-$13-$4345452-107
346Cesar SalazarHOUC-$9-$16-$7346519-173
347Tucker BarnhartTEXC-$9-$23-$14347580-233
348Tyrone TaylorNYMOF-$9$2$11348193155
349Miguel AndujarATHOF-$9-$7$23493490
350Oswaldo CabreraNYY3B-$9-$7$2350357-7
351Jordan LawlarARISS-$9$3$12351182169
352Pavin SmithARIOF-$9$4$13352157195
353Whit Merrifield 2BOF-$9-$8$1353382-29
354Richie PalaciosTBR2BOF-$9-$10-$1354409-55
355Blake PerkinsMILOF-$10-$10$0355408-53
356Ramon UriasBAL3B-$10-$1$9356246110
357Randal GrichukARIOF-$10$8$18357110247
358Will WagnerTOR2B-$10-$10$0358407-49
359Will BrennanCLEOF-$10-$8$2359379-20
360Jason HeywardSDPOF-$10-$4$736028476
361Edouard JulienMIN2B-$10-$12-$1361440-79
362Manuel Margot OF-$11-$6$436233725
363Ramon LaureanoBALOF-$11$1$11363206157
364Thomas SaggeseSTL2B-$11-$6$536433232
365Jose Iglesias 2B3B-$11-$12-$1365447-82
366Kyle StowersMIAOF-$11-$15-$4366499-133
367Donovan SolanoSEA1B3B-$11-$21-$10367557-190
368Javier BaezDETSS-$11-$12-$1368445-77
369Derek HillMIAOF-$11-$8$33693645
370Tirso OrnelasSDPOF-$11-$16-$5370510-140
371Jarred KelenicATLOF-$11$1$12371202169
372Rob RefsnyderBOSOF-$12$2$14372185187
373Eloy JimenezTBRDH-$12-$3$9373271102
374Bryan De La CruzATLOF-$12-$1$11374240134
375Sam HilliardCOLOF-$12$4$16375164211
376Anthony Rizzo 1B-$12-$15-$3376491-115
377Stuart FairchildCINOF-$12$3$15377179198
378Amed RosarioWSN2BOF-$12-$7$537835622
379DJ LeMahieuNYY1B3B-$12-$21-$9379569-190
380Kyle FarmerCOL2B3B-$12-$6$638033347
381David Peralta OF-$12-$13-$1381466-85
382Esteury RuizATHOF-$13$10$2238298284
383Eguy RosarioSDP3B-$13-$8$43833767
384Nick YorkePIT2B-$13-$5$838430777
385Chris TaylorLAD2B3BOF-$13-$8$43853814
386Connor JoeSDP1BOF-$13-$15-$2386485-99
387Jace JungDET3B-$13-$19-$6387550-163
388Colson MontgomeryCHWSS-$13-$27-$14388603-215
389Dane MyersMIAOF-$13-$3$10389276113
390Ryan BlissSEA2B-$13-$5$839031377
391Spencer TorkelsonDET1B-$13-$6$839132863
392Enrique HernandezLAD3BOF-$13-$12$2392441-49
393David HamiltonBOS2BSS-$13$3$17393171222
394Juan BritoCLE2B-$13-$16-$3394515-121
395Santiago EspinalCIN2B3B-$14-$11$2395434-39
396Christian MooreLAA2B-$14$3$17396178218
397Rowdy Tellez 1B-$14-$6$839732374
398Trey SweeneyDETSS-$14-$14$0398482-84
399Ezequiel DuranTEX3BOF-$14-$8$739935841
400Jon BertiCHC3B-$14-$8$640037327
401Noelvi MarteCIN3B-$14-$4$10401299102
402Jared TrioloPIT2B3B-$14-$15$0402487-85
403Jerar EncarnacionSFGOF-$15$0$14403221182
404Brandon DruryCHW2B-$15-$13$1404463-59
405Griffin ConineMIAOF-$15-$19-$4405543-138
406Paul DeJongWSN3BSS-$15-$13$2406454-48
407Alex CallWSNOF-$15-$12$3407437-30
408Austin SlaterCHWOF-$15-$11$4408419-11
409Will BensonCINOF-$15-$1$14409235174
410Zach McKinstryDET3BSSOF-$15-$17-$2410527-117
411Mitch HanigerSEAOF-$15-$22-$7411572-161
412Jacob MeltonHOUOF-$15-$9$641239715
413Oliver DunnMIL3B-$15-$15$0413490-77
414Miguel RojasLADSS-$15-$12$3414448-34
415Kevin NewmanLAA2BSS-$16-$21-$5415554-139
416Adam FrazierPIT2BOF-$16-$21-$5416564-148
417Brooks BaldwinCHW2B-$16-$15$0417498-81
418Oswald PerazaNYY3B-$16-$10$641840513
419Luisangel AcunaNYMSS-$16-$6$941933881
420Davis SchneiderTOR2BOF-$16-$7$842035466
421Edmundo SosaPHI2B3BSS-$16-$3$13421274147
422Austin MartinMINOF-$16-$14$2422478-56
423Chase MeidrothCHWOF-$16-$18-$1423538-115
424Chase DeLauterCLEOF-$16-$2$14424260164
425Romy GonzalezBOS1B2BSS-$16$7$24425124301
426Adam Duvall OF-$17-$9$742639432
427Eddie RosarioLADOF-$17-$10$642741017
428Joshua PalaciosPITOF-$17-$8$842837454
429Trent GrishamNYYOF-$17-$8$942935970
430Kevin Pillar OF-$17-$1$16430239191
431Billy CookPITOF-$17-$11$64314229
432Javier SanojaMIAOF-$17-$13$3432464-32
433Andy IbanezDET2B-$17-$14$3433477-44
434Jorge MateoBAL2B-$17$4$21434162272
435Carson WilliamsTBRSS-$17$1$19435197238
436Michael TaylorCHWOF-$17-$14$3436476-40
437Tyler FreemanCLEOF-$17-$4$13437297140
438Luis MatosSFGOF-$17-$11$643842612
439Michael SianiSTLOF-$17-$26-$8439594-155
440Taylor TrammellHOUOF-$17-$11$644042713
441Vaughn GrissomBOS2B-$17-$4$13441303138
442Taylor WallsTBRSS-$18-$21-$3442563-121
443Sean BouchardCOLOF-$18-$2$15443266177
444Angel MartinezCLEOF-$18-$16$2444511-67
445Nelson VelazquezKCROF-$18$2$20445190255
446Matt MervisMIADH-$18-$21-$4446568-122
447Colby ThomasATHOF-$18-$7$1144735097
448Ben GamelHOUOF-$18-$17$1448533-85
449Coby MayoBAL3B-$18-$5$14449306143
450Garrett HampsonARI2BOF-$18-$25-$6450590-140
451Jake MangumTBROF-$18-$17$1451537-86
452Gabriel AriasCLE3B-$18-$13$6452455-3
453Brady HouseWSN3B-$19-$16$2453518-65
454Jack SuwinskiPITOF-$19-$3$15454279175
455Orelvis MartinezTOR2B-$19-$8$1145537085
456Anthony RendonLAA3B-$19-$19$0456545-89
457Joey GalloCHW1B-$19-$12$745744215
458Max SchuemannATH3BSS-$19-$22-$4458575-117
459Addison BargerTOR3BOF-$19-$11$845941841
460Travis Jankowski OF-$19-$24-$5460589-129
461Robbie Grossman OF-$19-$21-$1461555-94
462Jose Abreu 1B-$19-$13$64624593
463Eric WagamanMIA3B-$20-$11$946342439
464Andruw MonasterioMIL2B3B-$20-$15$4464494-30
465Ildemaro VargasARI2B3B-$20-$31-$11465612-147
466Brett WiselySFG2BSS-$20-$19$1466544-78
467Grant McCraySFGOF-$20-$13$64674652
468Blaze AlexanderARISS-$20-$18$1468541-73
469Darell HernaizATH3B-$20-$21-$1469560-91
470Tyler WadeSDP3BOF-$20-$21-$1470566-96
471Jake BauersMIL1B-$20-$7$13471342129
472Brandon LockridgeSDPOF-$20-$10$947241755
473Juan YepezWSN1B-$20-$7$13473340133
474Oscar ColasCHWOF-$20-$22-$2474571-97
475Cole YoungSEASS-$20-$21-$1475561-86
476Brett BatyNYM3B-$20-$14$64764751
477Alexander CanarioCHCOF-$20-$8$12477371106
478Weston WilsonPHIOF-$20-$1$20478227251
479James OutmanLADOF-$20-$2$18479265214
480Nick GordonBALOF-$20-$16$5480509-29
481Daniel SchneemannCLESSOF-$21-$22-$1481570-89
482Joey LoperfidoTOROF-$21-$15$6482486-4
483Dylan CarlsonBALOF-$21-$16$5483520-37
484Ronny MauricioNYM2B-$21-$2$19484254230
485Dominic CanzoneSEAOF-$21-$6$15485334151
486Yuli GurrielSDP1B-$21-$21$0486556-70
487J.D. DavisLAA1B-$21-$15$6487493-6
488Graham PauleyMIA3B-$21-$16$5488521-33
489Justyn-Henry MalloyDETOF-$21-$17$4489526-37
490Nick AllenATLSS-$21-$24-$3490588-98
491Drew WatersKCROF-$21-$7$14491352139
492Nathan LukesTOROF-$21-$11$1049242864
493Gage WorkmanCHCSS-$21-$12$949345043
494Bryan RamosCHW3B-$21-$15$749448410
495Nick SenzelCHW3B-$21-$17$4495528-33
496Chandler SimpsonTBROF-$21$4$26496155341
497Andres ChaparroWSNDH-$21-$6$16497324173
498Enmanuel ValdezPIT2B-$21-$13$949845642
499Nick LoftinKCR2B-$21-$20$1499553-54
500Travis BazzanaCLEOF-$21-$23-$2500584-84
501Corey JulksCHWOF-$21-$14$850147229
502Luis UriasATH3B-$22-$17$5502525-23
503Jon SingletonHOU1B-$22-$18$4503539-36
504Joey WiemerKCROF-$22-$24-$2504587-83
505Ji Hwan BaePITOF-$22-$5$17505309196
506Gavin SheetsSDP1BOF-$22-$17$5506531-25
507Jared SernaMIA2B-$22-$16$6507517-10
508Myles StrawTOROF-$22-$25-$3508591-83
509Vidal BrujanCHC2BSSOF-$22-$22$0509574-65
510Shay WhitcombHOU3B-$22-$6$16510327183
511Leo JimenezTOR2BSS-$22-$13$951146051
512Nick MadrigalNYM3B-$22-$23$0512577-65
513Pedro LeonHOUOF-$22-$12$1151343974
514Daz CameronBALOF-$22-$12$1051444470
515Zach DezenzoHOU1B-$22-$5$17515315200
516Tyler LocklearSEA1B-$22-$17$5516530-14
517Matt Carpenter DH-$22-$21$2517562-45
518Tim AndersonLAASS-$23-$29-$6518608-90
519Bryce EldridgeSFGOF-$23-$11$1251942396
520Casey SchmittSFG2B-$23-$9$13520399121
521Harold Ramirez OF-$23-$10$13521402119
522Trey LipscombWSN3B-$23-$27-$4522601-79
523Luken BakerSTLDH-$23-$8$15523367156
524Aledmys Diaz SS-$23-$26-$3524597-73
525Abraham ToroBOS3B-$23-$13$952546758
526Ben RiceNYY1B-$23$4$27526163363
527Greg JonesCOLOF-$23-$6$17527322205
528DaShawn KeirseyMINOF-$23-$16$752851612
529Daniel Vogelbach DH-$23-$5$18529311218
530Cavan BiggioKCR2B-$23-$23$0530581-51
531Dominic FletcherCHWOF-$23-$33-$10531617-86
532Marco LucianoSFG2BSS-$23-$26-$3532600-68
533Matt Duffy 3B-$23-$34-$11533618-85
534Max MuncyLAD3B-$23-$25-$1534592-58
535Scott KingeryLAASS-$23-$21$2535565-30
536Luis GuillormeHOU2B-$24-$39-$15536624-88
537Johnathan RodriguezCLESS-$24-$6$18537330207
538Luke KeaschallMINOF-$24-$4$20538286252
539Joey Wendle 2B-$24-$25-$1539593-54
540Leo RivasSEASS-$24-$27-$3540602-62
541Miguel Sano 3B-$24-$9$15541391150
542Emmanuel RiveraBAL1B3B-$24-$16$854250735
543Zac VeenCOLOF-$24-$5$19543305238
544Aaron SchunkCOL2B-$24-$19$5544548-4
545DJ StewartPITOF-$24-$9$15545390155
546Rece HindsCINOF-$24-$8$16546368178
547Jakob MarseeMIAOF-$24-$21$3547567-20
548Marcelo MayerBOSSS-$24-$4$20548283265
549Owen CaissieCHCOF-$24-$15$954949653
550Luke WilliamsATL2B-$24-$10$14550416134
551Cal StevensonPHIOF-$24-$11$13551430121
552Isaac CollinsMILOF-$24-$16$855250349
553Kody ClemensPHI1B-$24-$4$20553290263
554Danny MendickCHWOF-$24-$26-$2554595-41
555Stone GarrettWSNDH-$24-$3$21555272283
556Nacho AlvarezATL2B-$24-$13$1155646195
557Alan RodenTOROF-$24-$7$17557346211
558Nick PrattoKCR1B-$24-$22$2558576-18
559Liover PegueroPITSS-$24-$14$1055947485
560Nicky LopezCHC2BSS-$24-$36-$11560620-60
561Adael AmadorCOL2B-$24-$11$13561432129
562Denzel ClarkeATHOF-$24-$17$756253428
563Nick KurtzATH1B-$24-$16$956350162
564Curtis MeadTBR2B-$24-$15$1056448381
565Jac CaglianoneKCROF-$24-$22$2565573-8
566Jose FerminSTL3B-$24-$16$856651254
567Jonatan ClaseTOROF-$24-$6$18567329238
568Tim TawaARI2B-$24-$11$13568425143
569Nasim NunezWSNSS-$24-$21$456955811
570Michael HelmanSTLOF-$24-$16$957050268
571Oscar GonzalezSDPOF-$24-$5$20571310261
572Payton EelesMINOF-$25-$10$15572406166
573Everson PereiraNYYOF-$25-$3$21573278295
574Jorge BarrosaARIOF-$25-$12$13574436138
575Kameron MisnerTBROF-$25-$26-$2575596-21
576Jonathon LongCHCOF-$25-$4$21576296280
577Miles MastrobuoniSEA3B-$25-$29-$4577607-30
578Brett HarrisATH3B-$25-$26-$1578598-20
579Austin ShentonSEA3B-$25-$23$2579582-3
580Emmanuel RodriguezMINOF-$25-$4$21580289291
581Tim ElkoCHW1B-$25-$16$958150477
582Keston HiuraCOLOF-$25$8$33582112470
583Alika WilliamsPIT2B-$25-$33-$8583615-32
584Cooper BowmanCIN2B-$25-$13$12584458126
585Max AcostaMIAOF-$25-$11$14585433152
586Garrett CooperATL1B-$25-$6$19586331255
587Dustin HarrisTEXDH-$25-$12$13587443144
588Victor MesaMIAOF-$25-$23$25885799
589Nick AhmedTEXSS-$25-$23$258957811
590Elehuris Montero OF-$25-$4$21590298292
591Kevin AlcantaraCHCOF-$25-$9$16591386205
592Blake DunnCINSS-$25-$8$17592377215
593Brock WilkenMIL3B-$25-$30-$5593609-16
594Gustavo CamperoLAAOF-$25$1$26594208386
595Wade MecklerSFGOF-$25-$12$14595438157
596Bobby DalbecCHW1B-$25-$17$859653264
597Nick MatonCHW3B-$25-$21$459755938
598Eli WhiteATLOF-$25-$4$21598291307
599Kyren ParisLAA2B-$25-$29-$3599605-6
600Tyler GentryKCROF-$25-$19$660054654
601David HensleyDETOF-$25-$32-$7601614-13
602Edward Olivares OF-$25-$4$21602288314
603Darren BakerWSN2B-$25-$29-$3603606-3
604Robert HassellWSNOF-$25-$30-$5604610-6
605Akil BaddooDETOF-$25-$17$960552382
606Jacob HurtubiseCINSS-$25-$17$860653571
607Niko KavadasLAADH-$25-$9$16607393214
608Mickey GasperMIN2B-$26-$17$960852484
609Bryce JohnsonPITOF-$26-$33-$8609616-7
610Michael StefanicTOR2B-$26-$38-$12610622-12
611Zach DeLoachCHWOF-$26-$20$661155160
612Nick SogardBOS2B-$26-$14$12612469143
613Grae KessingerARI3B-$26-$31-$56136112
614Mike BrosseauSDP3B-$26-$23$361458331
615Ryan NodaLAA1B-$26-$17$961553679
616Bligh MadrisDET1B-$26-$28-$261660412
617Petey HalpinCLEOF-$26-$18$761754275
618Zach Remillard OF-$26-$38-$12618621-3
619David VillarSFG1B-$26-$23$361958534
620J.C. EscarraNYY1B-$26-$31-$56206137
621Jorbit VivasNYY2B-$26-$26$062159922
622Luis De Los SantosNYM3B-$26-$36-$96226193
623CJ AlexanderATH3B-$26-$19$762354776
624Ryan KreidlerDETSS-$26-$38-$126246231
625Brian ServenDETOF-$27-$50-$236256250

The elegance of this sort of presentation is everyone is free to take away whatever they want, in context to their approach and drafting philosophy. Here are some of my observations.

Aaron Judge is still considered an injury risk. With normalized playing time, he's second behind Shohei Ohtani, and I personally feel the crowd is far too optimistic about Ohtani's playing time and production. As can be witnessed on the latest RotoWire Top 300 Roundtable, Judge is my No. 1 overall player.

Several first and second-round batters are especially dependent on playing time, and thus carry added risk. There is a reason the crowd is assigning them a hefty workload, but even so, Elly De La Cruz, Corbin Carroll, Julio Rodriguez, Francisco Lindor, Jackson Chourio, and to a lesser extent Vladimir Guerrero and Jose Ramirez are not only highly skilled, but they're also upper echelon accumulators. This does not mean you should avoid them, but it does add early risk to a team build, perhaps making it advisable to limit taking chances later.

Keying on my favorite use of the ATC 600, here are the late round and reserve batters I am targeting with the hope they gather more playing time. Call them sleepers if you are so inclined. Inclusion in this group is more than the difference in earnings or rankings. There must be a plausible pathway to more playing time, and it doesn't hurt if I'm ahead of the field in terms of skills.

The first group are slated to serve on the less busy side of a platoon, but could play more: Jerar Encarnacion, Jhonkensy Noel, Coby Mayo and Eloy Jimenez. A couple are on the strong side of a platoon but could earn more chances against southpaw pitching: Kerry Carpenter and Ryan O'Hearn. The final set are in a logjam, but if they emerge with the job, they can take advantage: Nolan Gorman, Sean Bouchard, Andy Pages, Jordan Lawlar, David Hamilton and Vaughn Grissom.

Next time: The ATC 200 for starting pitchers and ATC 60 for relievers.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Todd Zola
Todd has been writing about fantasy baseball since 1997. He won NL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR in 2016 as well as a multi-time league winner in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Todd is now setting his sights even higher: The Rotowire Staff League. Lord Zola, as he's known in the industry, won the 2013 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year award and was named the 2017 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year. Todd is a five-time FSWA awards finalist.
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