The Z Files: Surveying 2024 Park Factors

The Z Files: Surveying 2024 Park Factors

This article is part of our The Z Files series.

Every few years I like to refresh what I like to call, "Park Factors, a Necessary Evil." With the expected impending slew of transactions (fingers crossed), this seems like a great time to review the topic.

Let's start with the evil part. Park factors are not perfect. They don't flesh out all bias. Not all players are affected the same. However, we're still better off using them, hence the necessary aspect.

While there is some intriguing work being done to generate park factors using next level data, most are calculated the old-fashioned way. Here is an example, using home runs.

100 x ((Home Hit HR + Home Pitch HR allowed)/(Home Total Batters AB+ Home Total Pitchers AB))/((Away Hit HR + Away Pitch HR allowed)/(Away Total Batters AB+ Away Total Pitchers AB))

Depending on the metric, games can replace at-bats. A neutral venue is indicated by a factor of 100. Anything over 100 means the venue produces more of the stat than a neutral setting, with a number below 100 showing the venue suppresses the stat. A park with a 105 home run factor is good for hitters, but bad for pitchers. On the other hand, a 105 for strikeouts is bad for hitters and good for pitchers.

The assumption is the quality of the hitters and pitchers on the team that calls the park home is the dominant factor, and the quality of opponents (and the aggregate factors of their parks) is neutral. This is an extreme example, but let's

Every few years I like to refresh what I like to call, "Park Factors, a Necessary Evil." With the expected impending slew of transactions (fingers crossed), this seems like a great time to review the topic.

Let's start with the evil part. Park factors are not perfect. They don't flesh out all bias. Not all players are affected the same. However, we're still better off using them, hence the necessary aspect.

While there is some intriguing work being done to generate park factors using next level data, most are calculated the old-fashioned way. Here is an example, using home runs.

100 x ((Home Hit HR + Home Pitch HR allowed)/(Home Total Batters AB+ Home Total Pitchers AB))/((Away Hit HR + Away Pitch HR allowed)/(Away Total Batters AB+ Away Total Pitchers AB))

Depending on the metric, games can replace at-bats. A neutral venue is indicated by a factor of 100. Anything over 100 means the venue produces more of the stat than a neutral setting, with a number below 100 showing the venue suppresses the stat. A park with a 105 home run factor is good for hitters, but bad for pitchers. On the other hand, a 105 for strikeouts is bad for hitters and good for pitchers.

The assumption is the quality of the hitters and pitchers on the team that calls the park home is the dominant factor, and the quality of opponents (and the aggregate factors of their parks) is neutral. This is an extreme example, but let's say the Red Sox lineup had a bunch of left-handed batters adept at pulling the ball down the line. With the quirky dimensions, Boston would clink a lot more balls off the Pesky Pole than the visiting teams, and since parks outside of Fenway Park are deeper down the line, the formula would deem Fenway Park favorable for lefty swingers. As will soon be shown, the deepest right field in MLB actually dampens left-handed power. Again, this is hyperbole, but there may be certain characteristics of a team's lineup or rotation that could skew the indices.

To help account for this, and variance in general, park factors are most often presented as a three-year average. In the instances where a venue is renovated, only the seasons with the new dimensions are included, rendering those factors even more suspect than usual.

Something to keep in mind when using park factors is they are most effective in a larger sample, such as a season-long projection to fuel draft rankings. This is not to say they should be ignored when setting lineups in daily leagues, DFS or betting. However, there are more relevant considerations in a one-game sample.

With that in mind, something I do for projection purposes is to calculate what I call composite park factors. This is really only apropos when looking at the entire season. Instead of assuming the opponent's venues are neutral in the aggregate, I calculate the park factor as a weighted average based on the team's schedule. Once the season begins and the team plays road games, the aggregate factor changes (but that's what Excel is for).

The reality is the aggregate of most away venues is neutral, or close to it. Even so, there are some differences, so I take the time to get the composite factors, which will soon be presented.

Earlier, a strikeout factor was mentioned. Whenever I discuss this subject, I'm asked to explain how strikeouts and walks can be different among the various parks. There are a few factors, including foul territory, the batter's eye and atmospheric conditions affecting pitch movement.

A common misperception is a homer-friendly park is a run-friendly park and a venue suppressing homers is good for pitchers. While this is sometimes true, it often is not.

There are several reasons a park can be favorable for home runs. Sometimes it's the dimensions. Other times it is altitude. Temperature, humidity and wind also play a part.

Smaller venues have less area to cover, reducing the number of hits. As such, parks boosting homers are thought to boost runs, but they may not.

Larger parks have a lot more acreage. Outfielders need to play deeper, so some weakly hit fly balls fall in. Bigger parks also yield more extra-base hits. It may be harder to clear the fence in some of these yards, but there are more hits, extending innings.

Some larger parks are also favorable for home runs, with Coors Field being the best example. The reason Coors Field is such a great hitting venue (and poor pitcher's park) is hits and homers are embellished, hits more so.

Some parks are advantageous for hitters from one side of the plate, but detrimental from the other side. Camden Yards is a prime example. After the left field fences were pushed back prior to the 2022 season, the venue has squashed righty power, but remains beneficial for lefties. As such, it's best to look at hitter's factors determined by handedness. Pitching factors aren't parsed in that nature.

With that as a backdrop, what follows are the park factors I am using for 2024 projections. Keep in mind they are composite factors, so if they appear different than you may find elsewhere, those are likely specific to the venue. Sources may also compute their three-year average in a different manner.

Each table is sortable, and color coded. This key is applied to pitchers and hitters:

  • DARK BLUE: Best
  • LIGHT BLUE: Good
  • WHITE: Neutral
  • YELLOW: Bad
  • ORANGE: Terrible

Park Factors for Pitchers

Team (Venue)RunsHitsHome RunsStrikeoutsWalks
1Angels (Angels Stadium)10199108103101
2Astros (Minute Maid Park)9899100102101
3Athletics (Oakland Coliseum)969791101100
4Blue Jays (Rogers Centre)10099104100100
5Atlanta (Truist Park)10210010110499
6Brewers (American Family Field)10199106104104
7Cardinals (Busch Stadium)98100969896
8Cubs (Wrigley Field)10110110310099
9Diamondbacks (Chase Field)100102899997
10Dodgers (Dodgers Stadium)9910011210296
11Giants (Oracle Park)97100919998
12Guardians (Progressive Field)979997101103
13Mariners (T-Mobile Park)949510010498
14Marlins (LoanDepot Park)1001019710099
15Mets (Citi Field)949797103105
16Nationals (Nationals Park)100991029898
17Orioles (Camden Yards)97100959898
18Padres (Petco Park)95989810299
19Phillies (Citizens Bank Park)10099105102100
20Pirates (PNC Park)1021019296101
21Rangers (Globe Life Field)10210010999101
22Rays (Tropicana Field)959798104101
23Red Sox (Fenway Park)10710510297101
24Reds (Great American Ballpark)107102118101102
25Rockies (Coors Field)1171071089397
26Royals (Kauffman Stadium)1051049394101
27Tigers (Comerica Park)1001009297104
28Twins (Target Field)9910098100103
29White Sox (Guaranteed Rate Field)1029910999103
30Yankees (Yankee Stadium)10099108101101

Park Factors for Left Handed Batters

Team (Venue)RunsHitsHome RunStrikeoutsWalks
1Diamondbacks (Chase Field)100102919898
2Atlanta (Truist Park)10210110110597
3Orioles (Camden Yards)971001049995
4Red Sox (Fenway Park)1071069793102
5Cubs (Wrigley Field)10110310410098
6White Sox (Guaranteed Rate Field)10299115102104
7Reds (Great American Ballpark)10610112210098
8Guardians (Progressive Field)104101108103102
9Rockies (Coors Field)1171051019494
10Tigers (Comerica Park)100988799107
11Astros (Minute Maid Park)981009810296
12Royals (Kauffman Stadium)1051019194105
13Angels (Angels Stadium)1019810910399
14Dodgers (Dodgers Stadium)999910910094
15Marlins (LoanDepot Park)101101102100100
16Brewers (American Family Field)10198112104106
17Twins (Target Field)99100106102107
18Mets (Citi Field)9498101105108
19Yankees (Yankee Stadium)9997115102105
20Athletics (Oakland Coliseum)95979510099
21Phillies (Citizens Bank Park)10099105102102
22Pirates (PNC Park)1021029794102
23Padres (Petco Park)95999910298
24Mariners (T-Mobile Park)97989310099
25Giants (Oracle Park)97100919997
26Cardinals (Busch Stadium)9899969892
27Rays (Tropicana Field)95969710699
28Rangers (Globe Life Field)10210111599101
29Blue Jays (Rogers Centre)1019998101105
30Nationals (Nationals Park)1001011019698

Park Factors for Right Handed Batters

Team (Venue)RunsHitsHome RunStrikeoutsWalks
1Diamondbacks (Chase Field)1001028810196
2Atlanta (Truist Park)10299100103101
3Orioles (Camden Yards)971008897101
4Red Sox (Fenway Park)1071031049999
5Cubs (Wrigley Field)10110010210099
6White Sox (Guaranteed Rate Field)1029910797102
7Reds (Great American Ballpark)106102114100104
8Guardians (Progressive Field)10410095100104
9Rockies (Coors Field)11710811393100
10Tigers (Comerica Park)1001009596101
11Astros (Minute Maid Park)9898102102103
12Royals (Kauffman Stadium)105104959397
13Angels (Angels Stadium)10199107102102
14Dodgers (Dodgers Stadium)9910011410398
15Marlins (LoanDepot Park)1011009410099
16Brewers (American Family Field)101100103104103
17Twins (Target Field)991009599100
18Mets (Citi Field)949694102102
19Yankees (Yankee Stadium)9999104101100
20Athletics (Oakland Coliseum)959788100101
21Phillies (Citizens Bank Park)1009910510198
22Pirates (PNC Park)1021019098100
23Padres (Petco Park)959899103101
24Mariners (T-Mobile Park)9710093103100
25Giants (Oracle Park)97101939999
26Cardinals (Busch Stadium)9899969799
27Rays (Tropicana Field)9597100103103
28Rangers (Globe Life Field)10299106100100
29Blue Jays (Rogers Centre)1019910610098
30Nationals (Nationals Park)1009810210098

Park Factors for Switch Hitters

Team (Venue)RunsHitsHome RunStrikeoutsWalks
1Diamondbacks (Chase Field)100102909998
2Atlanta (Truist Park)10210110110598
3Orioles (Camden Yards)971001009897
4Red Sox (Fenway Park)1071059995101
5Cubs (Wrigley Field)10110210410099
6White Sox (Guaranteed Rate Field)10299113101103
7Reds (Great American Ballpark)106102119100101
8Guardians (Progressive Field)1049999101103
9Rockies (Coors Field)1171061059496
10Tigers (Comerica Park)100998998106
11Astros (Minute Maid Park)98999910298
12Royals (Kauffman Stadium)1051029294103
13Angels (Angels Stadium)10198109102100
14Dodgers (Dodgers Stadium)9910011110195
15Marlins (LoanDepot Park)1011019910099
16Brewers (American Family Field)10199109104105
17Twins (Target Field)99100103101105
18Mets (Citi Field)949899104107
19Yankees (Yankee Stadium)9997112101103
20Athletics (Oakland Coliseum)959793100100
21Phillies (Citizens Bank Park)10099105102101
22Pirates (PNC Park)1021029595102
23Padres (Petco Park)95989910298
24Mariners (T-Mobile Park)97999310199
25Giants (Oracle Park)97100919997
26Cardinals (Busch Stadium)9899969894
27Rays (Tropicana Field)959798105100
28Rangers (Globe Life Field)10210111399101
29Blue Jays (Rogers Centre)10199101101103
30Nationals (Nationals Park)1001001029798

OBSERVATIONS

  • Coors Field and the Great American Ball Park are bad for pitchers, in both runs and homers.
  • Kauffman Stadium and PNC Park are presumed pitcher's parks because they suppress power, but they actually embellish offense.
  • Chase Field squashes power, but plays neutral for runs.
  • Angels Stadium and Dodgers Stadium allow more homers than you might think.
  • Yankee Stadium, American Family Field, Citizens Bank Park, Rogers Centre and Wrigley Field have the reputation of being hitter-friendly, but they play neutral.
  • Petco Park, Tropicana Field, Progressive Field, Citi Field, Busch Stadium, Camden Yards, Oakland Coliseum and Oracle Park all hamper hits and homers.
  • LoanDepot Park is assumed to hurt homers and runs, but it barely hinders homers and is neutral for runs.
  • Fenway Park helps righty power but hurts lefty power.
  • Camden Yards, Progressive Field and Target Field embellish left-handed power but hinder right-handed power.
  • Coors Field helps right-handed power a lot more than left-handed power.
  • PNC Park hurts right-handed power more than left-handed.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Todd Zola
Todd has been writing about fantasy baseball since 1997. He won NL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR in 2016 as well as a multi-time league winner in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Todd is now setting his sights even higher: The Rotowire Staff League. Lord Zola, as he's known in the industry, won the 2013 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year award and was named the 2017 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year. Todd is a five-time FSWA awards finalist.
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