Jhoan Duran

Jhoan Duran

27-Year-Old PitcherRP
Minnesota Twins
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Duran missed the first month of the 2024 campaign due to a right oblique strain. Upon his return, the hard-throwing righty was called for most of Minnesota's save chances, though he was used earlier in games on occasion while ceding save opportunities to others. The flamethrower recorded 23 saves for a 53.5 percent team save share along with seven holds. Duran still averaged triple-digits on his fastball (100.5 mph, T-2nd among relievers), but his 28.9 percent strikeout rate and 14.8 swinging strike percentage both dipped from prior outputs. He maintained a 60-plus groundball percentage (99th percentile) for the third consecutive year, but his 61.5 LOB percentage attributed to inflated ratios. The upside remains of a top-five closer in the league, but Duran may have competition for closing duties, especially if Griffin Jax remains in the bullpen. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#101
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $4.13 million contract with the Twins in January of 2025.
Not worried about drop in velocity
PMinnesota Twins
March 9, 2025
Duran's fastball velocity has been down this spring, but he says it's by design, Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports. "I focus more on my mechanics and my pitches' movement," Duran said this week. "I don't need to throw really hard right now. Maybe in the [regular season] I throw harder, or maybe not."
ANALYSIS
Duran "only" reached 100.8 mph with his fastball Saturday while tossing a scoreless inning against the Red Sox and striking out one. That's in contrast to the 102.5 mph he hit in his first spring outing of 2023, per Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic. The decline doesn't appear to be a major concern, as his fastball is still elite and he could just be easing into spring training as a more established veteran. Duran is set to return as Minnesota's closer, but manager Rocco Baldelli often deploys his bullpen without regard for the save statistic, meaning Griffin Jax and others will get save chances if matchups call for Duran to be used earlier in the game.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-8%
BAA vs LHP
2025
No Stats
2024
 
 
-13%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-2%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2023vs Left .211 240 84 19 45 8 1 2
Since 2023vs Right .230 242 66 21 49 12 0 8
2025vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024vs Left .218 113 33 5 22 5 1 2
2024vs Right .252 115 33 10 26 7 0 2
2023vs Left .205 127 51 14 23 3 0 0
2023vs Right .209 127 33 11 23 5 0 6
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-37%
ERA at Home
2025
No Stats
2024
 
 
-51%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-14%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2023Home 2.36 1.11 61.0 4 5 26 12.2 3.1 0.4
Since 2023Away 3.72 1.19 55.2 5 10 24 10.8 3.1 1.1
2025Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024Home 2.45 1.16 29.1 4 3 13 11.0 2.8 0.0
2024Away 5.04 1.16 25.0 2 6 10 10.8 2.2 1.4
2023Home 2.27 1.07 31.2 0 2 13 13.4 3.4 0.9
2023Away 2.64 1.21 30.2 3 4 14 10.9 3.8 0.9
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Prospect Rankings History
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Duran once again led the league with 473 pitches thrown at 100 mph or greater. Even more impressive, he averaged 102 mph on his four-seamer, which was actually an improvement over 2022's 101 mph average on the pitch. Duran's secondary offerings were effective too -- he generated a 45.9% whiff percentage on his curveball while throwing more splitters (+11.3% pitch usage) than he did in his rookie season. His 65.9% groundball percentage complemented his 96th percentile strikeout rate (32.9%), but Duran issued more free passes with a below-average walk rate that approached 10%. The 26-year-old tallied a career-high 27 saves as Minnesota's primary closer and his 71.1% team save share was 10th-highest among relievers. Duran certainly has the upside to be a top-five closer in the league, but for now, he figures to settle in as one of the top 8-12 closers for 2024 drafts.
Duran impressed the Twins during spring training and made the Opening Day roster as part of the bullpen. It was a role change for the career-long starter, but the rookie adapted quickly and was dominant from the outset. Duran threw a league-leading 392 pitches at 100 mph or greater while averaging a ridiculous 101 mph on his 4-seamer. He complemented his fastball with a knee buckling curve (49.7% whiff percentage) that served as his primary strikeout pitch, leading to a 33.5% strikeout rate. Duran also induced plenty of ground balls (61%) while limiting his free passes (6%) to finish with impressive ratios. With Minnesota struggling to hold leads in the late innings, Duran earned high leverage opportunities rather quickly. He tallied 18 holds on the season, but only finished with eight saves despite the upside for more. Upside is the key word, as he could be a top 5 closer in the league with full-time duties, but there's a greater chance the Twins are more flexible with his role.
Duran is one of Minnesota's top pitching prospects, but he threw just 16 innings last season due to elbow issues. He could contend for the major league rotation later this season, but his workload may be managed as he works his way back to form. Duran relies on a power sinker and a fastball that has touched triple digits on the radar gun, but needs to find a third pitch to complement his sinker and equally nasty splitter to stick as a starter. He could also figure into the bullpen mix and is a dark horse to close games thanks to his velocity.
The 23-year-old spent all of last season at the Twins' alternate training site but didn't appear in a big-league game, which was not a surprising development for a pitcher who had only 37 innings at Double-A on his ledger. Duran is one of the arms in pipeline for Minnesota that made Brusdar Graterol expendable. Like Graterol, Duran relies on a power sinker that has touched triple digits on the radar gun, but he also features a more athletic 6-foot-5 frame that might be better suited for a rotation role in the long run. He'll need to find a third pitch to complement his sinker and equally nasty splitter to stick as a starter, but his arsenal is more than good enough to thrive as a high-leverage reliever if he doesn't. Duran will look to get his development back on track in 2021, likely at Triple-A, and could make his Twins debut this season.
Duran has a couple monster pitches and has not logged a FIP over 3.93 in full-season ball, but he may fit best as a power reliever long term. A 6-foot-5, 230-pound righty who headlined Minnesota's return for Eduardo Escobar in the 2018 deadline deal with Arizona, Duran's best skill is an ability to generate groundballs at an elite clip (65.4 GB% at Low-A, 52.9 GB% at High-A, 63.3 GB% at Double-A since joining the Twins). He accomplishes this with a four-seam fastball that can touch triple digits and a unique low-90s split-fingered sinker -- both rate as plus-plus pitches. Duran could easily slot into a big-league bullpen as is and have success. In order to make it as a starter at the highest level, however, he will need to turn his curveball into a reliable third pitch while demonstrating at least fringe-average command. Look for him to spend the bulk of 2020 in the upper levels of the minors.
Duran has an electric arm (100+ mph fastball), plus an ideal 6-foot-5, 175-pound frame for a 20-year-old hurler and developing secondary pitches in his slider and changeup. Duran's command needs some work for him to make it as a starter, but he has plenty of time to get that ironed out.
More Fantasy News
Gets $4.125 million from Minnesota
PMinnesota Twins
January 9, 2025
The Twins and Duran avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $4.125 million contract Thursday, Darren Wolfson of Channel 5 Saint Paul reports.
ANALYSIS
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Allows run but grabs save
PMinnesota Twins
September 11, 2024
Duran allowed a run on three hits and struck out two over one inning to earn the save in Wednesday's 6-4 win over the Angels.
ANALYSIS
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Implodes in eighth inning
PMinnesota Twins
September 7, 2024
Duran (6-9) took the loss Saturday versus the Royals, allowing three runs (two earned) on two hits and a hit batsman while striking out one over one-third of an inning.
ANALYSIS
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Picks up 22nd save
PMinnesota Twins
September 5, 2024
Duran got the save in Thursday's 4-3 win over the Rays, striking out two in a perfect ninth inning.
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Earns 21st save
PMinnesota Twins
September 2, 2024
Duran earned the save in Monday's 5-4 win over the Rays, striking out one in a perfect ninth inning.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Minnesota could listen to offers
PMinnesota Twins
November 14, 2024
The Twins might consider trading Duran this offseason, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
The Twins also reportedly listened to offers for Duran at the trade deadline, as well. However, they were only going to deal the reliever in July if they were overwhelmed by an offer and that will likely remain the case this winter. Duran saw his ERA rise to 3.64 this season, but he had a 66:15 K:BB over 54.1 innings and is under team control through 2027.
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