Spring Training Job Battles: NL Central

Our spring training job battles series continues with the NL Central. Previously, we covered the AL East, NL East and NL Central. (10 points to whoever can guess which divisions are coming next week.)

Note: the number in parenthesis is the player's NFBC ADP since 2/1

Chicago Cubs

First Base/Center Field: Cody Bellinger (58), Michael Busch (398), Pete Crow-Armstrong (433), Patrick Wisdom (645), Matt Mervis (654), Garrett Cooper (699), Mike Tauchman (704), Dominic Smith (747)

Bellinger will take one of these two spots nearly every day, but where he spends most of his time may depend primarily on which of the other members of this group steps up. If it's Tauchman or Crow-Armstrong, Bellinger will handle first base; otherwise, he'll be in center field. Tauchman is a journeyman who fits best as a fourth outfielder, though he did have a 107 wRC+ in 108 games last season. Crow-Armstrong is a glove-first prospect who could already be a Gold Glove favorite, but he won't turn 22 until late March and went 0-for-14 in his brief cup of coffee last season. A step forward this spring could see him earn a roster spot and push Bellinger into the infield, but it's more likely Bellinger plays in the outfield so the Cubs can get another big bat into the lineup.

None of the remaining bats are guaranteed to be big, however. Busch couldn't force his way onto a crowded Dodgers roster and struggled to a .539 OPS in 27 big-league games, but he did manage a 1.049 OPS at the Triple-A level, albeit at age 25. Mervis' 2023 was much the same: a .531 OPS in 27 major-league games, but a .932 OPS as a 25-year-old Triple-A slugger. Both bat left-handed, so it's possible one of them ends up in a platoon with the right-handed Wisdom. Wisdom has done his best Joey Gallo impression in recent seasons, striking out 36.9 percent of the time as a Cub but riding a 16.1 percent barrel rate to a .214/.298/.473 slash line (109 wRC+). Cooper and Smith are in camp as non-roster invitees, with Cooper's right-handed bat giving him hope of winning a job on the short side of a platoon. 

Third Base: Christopher Morel (191), Michael Busch (398), Patrick Wisdom (645), Nick Madrigal (719) 

Morel started at five different positions in 2022 and six in 2023. That versatility is an asset, especially for a forward-thinking manager like new Cubs boss Craig Counsell, but the Cubs are having him focus on the hot corner this spring. If that's a precursor to installing him there permanently this year, this likely won't be much of a battle, as Morel's power (14.5 percent barrel rate) has more than offset his contact concerns (31.6 percent strikeout rate), leading to a 114 career wRC+ through the end of his age-24 season. If he winds up being used as a super-utility player again, third base will provide another route for Busch and Wisdom to get at-bats. Madrigal can't be excluded after leading the team in starts at third base last season, but his lifetime 0.6 percent barrel rate means he looks out of place in anything but a bench role. 

Fifth Starter: Cade Horton (560), Jordan Wicks (576), Javier Assad (604), Hayden Wesneski (662), Drew Smyly (695)

Horton has been the drafters' favorite among this group, but those drafting him better plan on stashing him, as he didn't earn an invite to big-league camp. He's one of the game's better pitching prospects and produced a 2.65 ERA and 33.5 percent strikeout rates in the minors last season, but he had just six Double-A starts and none at Triple-A, so there's no guarantee he arrives any time soon. Wicks is a fairly interesting prospect himself, though his poor 16.3 percent strikeout rate in his seven-start MLB debut last year hurts his fantasy appeal, even if that did come with a passable 4.41 ERA. Assad threw 109.1 innings as a swingman last year, finishing with a 3.05 ERA, but that came with a less encouraging set of peripherals and a 4.41 SIERA. Wesneski had plenty of sleeper buzz this time last year but pitched his way into that same sleeper role, struggling to a 4.63 ERA in 89.1 innings. Smyly is the only member of this group with any real MLB track record, but his ERA and WHIP spiked to 5.00 and 1.43, respectively, in his age-34 season last year, so he might not have much left in the tank. 

Closer: Adbert Alzolay (155), Hector Neris (537), Julian Merryweather (651), Mark Leiter (743)

It would fit with Counsell's reputation as a forward-thinking manager if the Cubs were to steer clear of traditional bullpen hierarchies all season, though it's worth noting that Counsell has in fact been perfectly happy to have a dedicated closer in the past. There's no Josh Hader or Devin Williams in this bullpen, however, which may free Counsell up to play the matchups all year. If he does anoint a ninth-inning man, Alzolay would seem to be the favorite after he led the Cubs with 22 saves last year. If he gets back his first-half form, when he had a 2.29 ERA and 28.9 percent strikeout rate, he'll look well-suited for the job. He dealt with arm troubles in the second half, though, with his ERA rising nearly a run while his strikeout rate dropped to 23.1 percent.

Neris has the best chance to fully unseat Alzolay and could also find himself leading a committee. He should be comfortable in the ninth inning thanks to his 89 career saves, and while he may be 34 years old, he's shown few signs of aging, posting a 1.71 ERA and 28.2 percent strikeout rate last season for Houston. Merryweather and Leiter both had strikeout rates around 30 percent and ERAs of 3.50 or better last year, so they should be near the top of a committee if one forms. Worth noting: all of the options mentioned here as well as every other member of the team's projected bullpen save for Drew Smyly (who should be no more than a long reliever if he fails to win a rotation spot) are right-handed, but Leiter has reverse splits and was used primarily against lefties last season. In the event of a committee, expect him to see save chances whenever lefties are due up in the ninth.

Cincinnati Reds

Corner Infield/Designated Hitter: Spencer Steer (102), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (156), Noelvi Marte (163), Jeimer Candelario (206), Jonathan India (262)

The Reds have questions throughout their infield and outfield, a sentence which may have been true for most of the last decade, but this year, it's true for all the right reasons. The Reds have too many promising young hitters for the number of positions on the field. The team could simply spread around the off days, leaving every individual hitter with 90 percent of a starting gig. Realistically, one or two members of the group will be injured at any given time, and everyone who's healthy will be able to play. 

Marte has one such injury at the moment, but the Grade 2 hamstring strain he suffered in winter ball is only supposed to keep him out for a few more days. He had a 120 wRC+ with three homers and six steals in his 35-game debut as a 21-year-old last year and comes with plenty of prospect pedigree, so he should have the inside track at third base. Encarnacion-Strand was similarly a highly-rated prospect, though very much a bat-first one, which dings his appeal in real life compared to fantasy. He'll have to hit to earn everyday at-bats at first base or DH, but he's probably going to do that, having posted a 112 wRC+ in 63 games to start his career last year.

Candelario's signing was the one that really created a playing-time crunch for the rest of the Reds infield, but Cincinnati presumably signed him to play him. He should feature at one of these three spots in most games, and while he may lack the exciting ceiling of the rest of this infield, he's been a solidly above-average hitter in most recent seasons. India has strictly been a second baseman to this point in his career but could feature some at third this season as he transitions into a super-utility role. He's been slowed by plantar fasciitis this spring, however. Steer made the above list as the majority of his big-league starts to date have come in the corner infield, but the plan this year seems to be for him to play left field. If injuries or underperformance hit the Reds infield, however, he could move back to the dirt. 

Middle Infield: Elly De La Cruz (24), Matt McLain (61), Spencer Steer (102), Noelvi Marte (163), Jonathan India (262)

As the draft prices for the first two members of this group indicate, De La Cruz and McLain are premium talents who wouldn't face competition on many rosters. The plan certainly seems to be for De La Cruz to be the everyday shortstop and McLain to be the everyday second baseman, but given the alternate options available to manager David Bell, a prolonged slump from either of them could see them retreat to a part-time role or worse. That's perhaps a bigger risk with De La Cruz, who struck out in more than a third of his plate appearances as a rookie. McLain's 28.5 percent strikeout rate was elevated as well but much less worrying. He's dealing with a minor oblique issue this spring but is reportedly making good progress.

Should the whiffs for De La Cruz or McLain prove untenable, the Reds have plenty of options. Steer or India could handle second base, either in place of McLain or with McLain handling shortstop if it's De La Cruz who plays himself out of everyday at-bats. That's probably India's likeliest route to something more than a utility role. Marte is also listed among this group, as he's a natural shortstop just like De La Cruz and McLain. The plan seems to be for him to handle the hot corner, but he could easily be part of the middle-infield picture instead should the favorites falter. 

Outfield: Spencer Steer (103), TJ Friedl (151), Jonathan India (233), Will Benson (302), Jake Fraley (332), Stuart Fairchild (751)

The "too many good players" problem isn't limited to the infield in Cincinnati. As noted earlier, left field is likely where Steer will spend most of his time, and while his career 112 wRC+ looks worse on a full-time left fielder than it does on someone who splits time between second and third base, it should still be enough to keep him in an everyday job, forcing the rest of the group to compete for two spots. Among that crowd, Friedl has generated the most interest from drafters after producing a very fantasy-friendly 18-homer, 27-steal season last year, totals he paired with a .279/.352/.467 line. Like Benson and Fraley, he bats left-handed, but he crushed southpaws last year (157 wRC+) and moved from a platoon to an everyday role as the season progressed.

Benson has generated the next-most interest among the outfield-only players in this group. His profile is a classic one for late-round outfielders: good power (10.3 percent barrel rate), some speed (19 steals in 108 games) and some serious contact questions (31.3 percent strikeout rate). Fraley managed 15 homers and 21 steals in 380 trips to the plate last season, giving him 20/30 potential in an everyday role, but both he and Benson were seldom allowed to face lefties last year. With the right-handed India likely to spend some time in the outfield this year, it will be even harder for that pair to move into a true everyday role. Fairchild is strictly a short-side platoon option. 

Fifth Starter: Andrew Abbott (267), Nick Martinez (557), Brandon Williamson (671)

For now, there's only one spot available at the back of the Reds' rotation, but both Nick Lodolo (tibia) and Graham Ashcraft (toe) are behind the other starters in camp, so there's some chance another spot is open for the first few weeks of the regular season. Abbott is being drafted as if he has a rotation spot locked up, but the Reds have said this is a three-person competition. Abbott's 3.87 ERA and 26.1 percent strikeout rate in 21 starts as a rookie last year were both strong marks, but the same can't be said of his 9.6 percent walk rate or 1.32 WHIP. He also allowed a ton of flyballs, which could become a problem at Cincinnati's homer-friendly park. Martinez stands in stark contrast as a high-floor, low-upside veteran. The 33-year-old came back from Japan to post a 3.45 ERA in two seasons as a swingman for the Padres, though that came with merely average strikeout and walk rates and a 3.98 SIERA. Williamson finished with a 4.46 ERA in 21 starts as a 25-year-old rookie last season, with ERA estimators that sat slightly higher than that. While the Reds had to turn to him fairly often last season, he's an underdog to be in the rotation on Opening Day. 

Milwaukee Brewers

Second Base/Third Base: Sal Frelick (289), Brice Turang (381), Tyler Black (465), Joey Ortiz (557), Andruw Monasterio (706), Owen Miller (713), Christian Arroyo (751)

Perhaps this is being unfair to Turang by saying this is a battle for two positions rather than merely a battle for the hot corner, but considering Turang's .218/.285/.300 line in 137 games as a rookie, he can't be considered a lock for a starting role. With Sal Frelick picking up an infielder's glove this spring and Ortiz coming over in the Corbin Burnes trade, the Brewers can turn elsewhere if Turang's struggles continue. Of course, neither Frelick (.692 OPS in 57 MLB games) nor Ortiz (.448 OPS in 15 games) has much of an MLB track record, either. Frelick's plate discipline (16.6 K%, 12.6 BB%) was strong fro anyone, let alone a rookie, but a 23.6 percent hard-hit rate means single-digit homers could be in play even if he earns everyday work. Ortiz is a glove-first player who could play anywhere on the infield, which would make him a utility player on many teams, but he could be the primary third baseman on this one.

The others have longer odds but could still feature into the mix at both spots. Black is held back by a poor glove, making him less of a real-life prospect than the players in the previous paragraph, but he hit .284/.417/.513 with 55 steals across the upper minors last season, giving him perhaps the most fantasy upside of the entire group. Monasterio produced a .678 OPS as a 26-year-old rookie last year while starting games at second, third and short, so he couldn't look more like a utility infielder. Miller (a 27-year-old with a .638 in parts of three seasons) and Arroyo (a 28-year-old with a .693 OPS in parts of seven seasons) are firmly in that same category. 

Center Field/Right Field: Jackson Chourio (129), Sal Frelick (289), Garrett Mitchell (474), Joey Wiemer (646)

The Brewers' decision to sign Chourio to a pre-debut extension in November (which could max out at 10 years and $140 million) was undoubtedly made with a desire for him to start in center field on Opening Day in mind. At this point in the spring, however, the 19-year-old hasn't officially made the Opening Day roster, so he'll actually have to go out and win (or at least not lose) the job this spring. Chourio's performance will determine whether the other young outfielders will fight over one or two spots this spring. Frelick, as mentioned above, is spending some time in the infield, but that doesn't rule him out of the outfield equation. If he's needed in the infield and Chourio wins the job in center, however, the right-field situation could shake out as a platoon between two similar players in Mitchell and Wiemer, with Mitchell on the larger side. Both are athletic 25-year-olds with raw power and speed but also significant contact concerns. Mitchell missed most of last season due to shoulder surgery but returned late in September, so that shouldn't be an issue this year. 

Second/third/fourth/fifth starter: DL Hall (461), Aaron Ashby (519), Wade Miley (543), Robert Gasser (566), Colin Rea (641), Jakob Junis (674), Joe Ross (731)

A messy rotation picture in Milwaukee got even messier Friday with the news that Miley has only a 50 percent chance of being ready by Opening Day due to an undisclosed injury. That could mean all four spots after ace Freddy Peralta are wide open to start the year. Hall, who came over in the Corbin Burnes trade, had been moved to the bullpen by the Orioles but now has a clear runway to a rotation role. While he's kept his walk rate to just 7.6 percent in his 33 major-league innings so far, his 13.4 percent career mark in the minors indicates command worries which could send him back to the bullpen again. Ashby has similar command concerns and has plenty of health concerns as well after shoulder surgery cost him the entirety of last season, but he's healthy this spring and is competing for a rotation spot. His 4.47 ERA in 139 innings as a swingman in 2021 and 2022 came with a much better 3.41 SIERA. 

Gasser is the last member of the group with any notable upside. He spent all of last year at Triple-A, where he recorded a 3.79 ERA and a 28.0 percent strikeout rate. He has little left to prove in the minors but isn't on the 40-man roster, so his first chance might not come until later in the season. Rea is a 33-year-old journeyman whose travels took him all the way to Japan in 2022. He returned to produce a 4.55 ERA in 26 appearances (22 starts) for the Brewers last season and could eat innings as a back-end starter for much of this year. Junis produced a career-best 3.87 ERA (with an even better 3.36 SIERA) in 40 appearances for the Giants last year, typically throwing two-to-four innings in a relief role. He's stretching out to start again this spring. Ross, somehow, is only 30 years old, but his last big-league pitch came back in 2021, with the last two years lost to Tommy John surgery. When we last saw him, he produced a 4.17 ERA in 20 appearances for the Nationals. 

Pittsburgh Pirates

Catcher: Henry Davis (247), Yasmani Grandal (612)

Grandal is now 35 and has hit .219/.305/.306 over the last two seasons, so he probably fits best as a backup at this point in his career, though he seems to be in line to get the majority of the starts early in the season. Given his age, the Pirates plan on his backup playing frequently, but it's possible the Pirates turn to Jason Delay in that role and have Davis play regularly in the minors early in the year. Davis was the first-overall pick in the 2021 draft, and his bat was considered big-league ready before his glove, though his .213 /.302/.351 line in his 62-game debut last year suggests he wasn't all that ready on either side of the ball. All of his major-league starts last year came in the outfield, so he won't be eligible at catcher in most fantasy leagues until he makes at least five or 10 starts there this year. He'll try to use this season (while fellow catching prospect Endy Rodriguez is recovering from Tommy John surgery) to prove he can indeed stick behind the plate, which would significantly lessen the pressure on his offensive development.

Second Base: Liover Peguero (514), Ji Hwan Bae (615), Jared Triolo (651), Nick Gonzales (undrafted)

Peguero is the stated favorite for this job, but his .239/.284/.373 slash line in 60 big-league games means he shouldn't be considered a lock. He was at least a moderately interesting prospect (peaking at 51st on our rankings) but will need a big step forward from his terrible plate discipline (31.5 K%, 5.2 BB%) to deserve an everyday job. Bae was penciled in at second base more than any other Pirate last season, but while his 24 steals in 371 plate appearances gave him some deep-league fantasy value, his .231/.296/.311 slash line makes it hard to see him as anything more than a utility player. Triolo hit .298/.388/.398 in 209 trips to the plate as a rookie last year, but it took a .440 BABIP to get there as he struck out 30.1 percent of the time. Gonzales, the seventh-overall pick in 2020, struggled to a .209/.268/.348 in his own 35-game debut, but his .886 OPS at Triple-A suggests he has little left to prove in the minors. 

Fourth/Fifth Starter: Roansy Contreras (715), Luis Ortiz (728), Bailey Falter (738), Quinn Priester (742); maybe Paul Skenes (363), Jared Jones (613)

Two members of the uninspiring foursome which kicks off the above list will likely fill out the spots behind Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales in the Pirates' rotation. Contreras has been the drafters' favorite by a narrow margin, likely due to his past prospect pedigree, but he struggled to a 6.59 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 11 starts and eight relief appearances last season. His 4.96 ERA at Triple-A offers little encouragement, but he had a 3.79 ERA (albeit with a 4.41 SIERA) as a rookie two years ago. Ortiz also pairs past prospect pedigree with poor 2023 numbers, as he had a 4.78 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 15 starts and three relief outings. Priester fits the same theme, as the 2019 first-round pick struggled to a 7.74 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in his 50-inning debut. Falter's low-strikeout, low-walk game works better in Pittsburgh than it did in Philadelphia, but his 4.76 career ERA leaves him as a deep-league streaming option at best. That could still be enough to eat innings while the younger options develop more in the minors.

Speaking of the younger options, I initially didn't include Skenes or Jones as part of this group, as they aren't on our Pirates depth chart and play for an organization which doesn't tend to demonstrate much urgency to win. Both are likely to push for a spot later in the year, but both are in big-league camp and could at least theoretically win an Opening Day spot. Skenes is the best pitching prospect in baseball, so we shouldn't rule anything out, but he's only thrown 7.2 innings as a professional, with the Pirates not wanting to run up his workload after selecting him first overall in the 2023 draft. That hardly seems like a precursor to giving him a legitimate Opening Day nod, and the Pirates could hardly be accused of slow-playing him if they decide he needs to get at least into double-digit minor-league innings before getting his shot. Then again, he may already be the team's best pitcher. Jones isn't on Skenes' tier as a prospect, and while he's already made 15 Triple-A starts, his 4.72 ERA in those outings means the Pirates may want him to show some progress before he earns his first call-up.

St. Louis Cardinals

Second Base: Tommy Edman (173), Nolan Gorman (179), Brendan Donovan (284)

I've listed Edman among this group as he started 40 games at the keystone last season, but the majority of his starts will likely come in center field this season (more on that in a minute). That leaves a battle primarily between the next two names on this list. Gorman's huge power (16.5 percent barrel rate) overcame significant contact concerns (31.9 percent strikeout rate) en route to an .805 OPS and 27 homers in 119 games last year. The 23-year-old has plenty of promise, but he also isn't much of a defender, which could send him to designated hitter more often than not. That would also be a way to get both Gorman and Donovan into the lineup. Donovan has shown a plus bat (124 wRC+) across parts of two seasons, albeit due more to plate discipline than power, which limits his fantasy appeal. He's played all over the diamond but will be limited to second base this year after recovering from elbow surgery. Both Gorman and Donovan bat left-handed, though both players have been above-average for their career in limited at-bats against southpaws. 

Shortstop: Masyn Winn (432), Brandon Crawford (747)

The Cardinals want Winn to be their Opening Day shortstop, but the recent addition of Crawford means the 21-year-old will actually have to earn the job this spring rather than winning it automatically. Winn has plenty of talent, but his numbers in both the upper minors and his brief MLB debut suggest he's a few years from making a big fantasy impact. He followed up a 100 wRC+ at Double-A with a 108 wRC+ at Triple-A, both fine marks but not ones which hint at immediate MLB dominance. If he does win the job, he'll need to hit far better than the 172/.230/.238 line he managed last season if he's going to keep it. If Winn fails to prove himself big-league ready, Crawford will play more than a 37-year-old who had a .587 OPS last year probably should.

Center Field: Tommy Edman (173), Dylan Carlson (679)

Edman is lined up to be the Cardinals' primary center fielder this season, but he's without a timetable for his spring debut as he works his way back from October wrist surgery, which puts his readiness for Opening Day in some doubt. That could create at least a temporary job for Carlson, and if he performs well, he could continue to play regularly while Edman goes back to bouncing around the diamond. Carlson is still just 25 years old and was once one of the top prospects in baseball, but his 230/.316/.364 line with 13 homers and eight steals over the last two seasons have left him with minimal fantasy appeal.