RotoWire Roundtable: Top 200 Prospects

The Roundtable features my most recent top-200 prospect rankings along with those from Derek VanRiper and Clay Link, which combine to produce a composite top-200 that is more complete and essential than any list I could put together by myself. This should be viewed as a master list for dynasty league owners heading into the 2015 season.

Considering how abstract the process of ranking prospects is, there was more variance in these rankings (especially outside the top-75) than there typically is in the Top-350 Roundtable we produce for single-season leagues. For this reason, each ranker got to pick a few players they were most bullish on to make a case (in their own words) for why that player belongs higher on the list. Each ranker was also given the chance to rain on the parade of a player who was ranked noticeably higher in the composite rankings than on that ranker's personal list.

Players We Were Highest On:

James Anderson:
Noah Syndergaard, RHP
James' rank: 6
Median rank: 11

"A gap of five spots may not seem like a lot, but it should be noted that both DVR and Clay had Syndergaard ranked No. 11 exactly, while conversely I see the case to take him ahead of hitters like Miguel Sano, Joey Gallo and Jorge Soler. This seems like an important philosophical question worth addressing. In general, I'm all for taking the hitter over the pitcher when compiling a prospect roster in a dynasty league. My teams reflect this notion, as 70 percent of my rostered minor leaguers are hitters. However, Syndergaard is a special case. I had him ranked as my top pitching prospect for dynasty leagues heading into last season, and now that he is very close to being a part of the Mets' rotation, that notion is even more amplified. While Tommy John surgery is always a risk, there are also risks with the three sluggers I ranked behind him. All hitting prospects are not created equally, just like all power pitchers are not destined for TJ in their first few years in the big leagues."

Steven Souza, OF
James' rank: 23
Median rank: 48

"I have Souza ranked 112 (19 spots behind Jorge Soler and 33 spots ahead of Joc Pederson) on my overall big board for 2015. So it only makes sense that I rank him highly in this exercise. In all likelihood, more than half the prospects ranked in the top-50 will never appear in the top-150 in my major league ranks, but this is a feat Souza has already accomplished. Whether he lives up to that ranking is to be determined, but even the most pessimistic projection system (ZiPS) has him hitting 15 homers and stealing 16 bases, which is a ridiculously high reasonable floor for a player's rookie season. Soler and Pederson are consensus top-15 fantasy prospects, in large part because they will be in their respective team's lineups on Opening Day, but this is also something Souza can claim. I would still take Soler and Pederson over Souza in dynasty leagues, but there should not be a huge gap between the three outfielders."

Raimel Tapia, OF
James' rank: 50
Median rank: 73

"Tapia has a plus-plus hit tool that sometimes gets underreported because his swing does not look like a classic great hitter's swing, but the numbers tell the story. His .326 average in 122 games as a 20-year-old at Low-A Asheville last season does not impress me nearly as much as the 16.7 percent K-rate he posted. Most hitters with his tools have a good deal of swing-and-miss in their game when they are that young, but Tapia's ability to make good contact is extreme. Skeptics may point to his .383 BABIP and his favorable hitting conditions last year in the Sally League, but he will have the ultimate favorable conditions if he remains a member of the Rockies organization. His potential hit, power and speed grades all surpass those of Charlie Blackmon, and yet Blackmon was able to post a monster fantasy season last year, in large part because he called Coors Field home. I can't wait to see what the talented young outfielder accomplishes in 2015."

Derek VanRiper:
Blake Swihart, C
Derek's rank: 28
Median rank: 49

"The challenging thing for me with prospect rankings is that I've had few opportunities to see many players first hand, in many cases, I haven't seen the player live at all. In those instances, I'm forced to trust the evaluations of others, use video, etc. Age to level is key here for me, as catchers typically take longer to develop, and the power spike in 2014 evokes Jonathan Lucroy comparisons given Swihart's already-polished defensive ability. Lucroy was always under the radar as a prospect, and is even still undervalued in many ways, but it seems less likely that Swihart will be overlooked as Top 50 rankings are the norm for him and he's cracked the Top 20 for the editors at Baseball America too."

Jesse Winker, OF
Derek's rank: 22
Median rank: 37

"I saw Winker in the Arizona Fall League, and he looked like the most complete hitter of the 100 or so positions players I had the chance to watch. Considering that he's only 21, I am optimistic that the plus raw power he offers will begin to show up more consistently in games. He doesn't have the speed of Christian Yelich, but Winker should adjust to big league pitching very quickly, and Great American Ball Park should help his cause in the home-run department too, even if he ends up being more of a .290-.300 guy with 16-18 HR annually instead of 20-25. Winker also strikes me as a player who gets docked in his scouting grade because he doesn't run well or grade out as more than an adequate defensive left fielder, so it would not surprise me at all if he ends up being a player with more roto value than real-life value."

Orlando Arcia, SS
Derek's rank: 62
Median rank: 113

"What I like most about Arcia is that he's shown very good plate discipline for his age (20) at Low-A and High-A over the past two seasons while facing older competition. Defensively, he's staying at short, and he'll already be playing at Double-A to begin 2015. His best years as a big league hitter may be seasons when he hits 8-10 homers, but offers 30-35 steals and racks up a ton of runs scored as a top-of-the-order tablesetter, and it's still possible that his plus speed will translate to higher stolen-base totals if he can learn to read pitchers more effectively and improve his success rate. It's surprising to me that Arcia isn't currently considered the best prospect in the Brewers' system."

Clay Link:
Luis Severino, RHP
Clay's rank: 23
Median rank: 55

"Severino was brilliant across three levels last season at age 20, and the combination of strikeouts (combined 10.1 K/9 in 2014) and groundballs (1.71 GO/AO in minors) should lead to tremendous success at the major league level. While not as tall as your prototypical ace (6-foot), he does have a strong, sturdy frame, which lends hope to him being able to consistently hold up to a starter's workload. His fastball is plus, and his slider and changeup are already both above-average offerings. Although still just 21, Severino isn't as far away from reaching the majors as one might think."

Nick Williams, OF
Clay's rank: 68
Median rank: 95

"Don't get me wrong, I have plenty of concerns with Williams. He flails away at offspeed and breaking pitches far too often, resulting in high strikeout rates, and he doesn't walk much at all. However, his raw tools are virtually unparalleled in the minor leagues right now, and he had an .834 OPS at High-A last season against competition that was (on average) nearly three years older than him. The tools alone should be enough for him to at least carve out a decent MLB career, and the chance he refines his approach and taps into his true potential was enough to warrant a top-70 spot for me."

Albert Almora, OF
Clay's rank: 61
Median rank: 79

"His strikeout rate jumped more than four percent with the move from High-A to Double-A last season (from 11.9 percent to 16.0 percent), but Almora has been able to maintain his aggressive approach without striking out a lot at each of his previous stops. The pedigree is there, and Almora has flashed his potential with the major league club this spring, going 8-for-21 with three doubles in 14 games. Perhaps the power will not develop as much as some scouts expect, and it's possible his real-life value will outweigh his fantasy utility, but his offensive skill set and defensive ability will make him an everyday player at the major league level in time."

Players We Were Lowest On:

James Anderson:
Tyler Glasnow, RHP
James' rank: 31
Median rank: 19

"Sorry if I'm not blown away that a 6-foot-7 pitcher with a plus-plus heater and the ability to spin a breaking ball was able to put up gaudy numbers at High-A. This was one small step toward him becoming an ace, yet he's already getting treated like a surefire No. 1 starter in a lot of dynasty leagues. By all accounts, the changeup lags significantly behind the fastball and curveball, and he has failed to spend more than five innings at a professional level without posting a walk rate above 11.5 percent. He is by no means doomed, but he will require a little more patience than I think fantasy owners are anticipating. Take a guy like Robert Stephenson, who could have matched Glasnow's 2014 numbers if he was pitching at High-A last year, but instead he was facing more advanced competition at Double-A, and he struggled. If everything clicks, Glasnow could be a borderline SP1 in fantasy leagues due to the high strikeout totals, but there are still several developmental hurdles for him to clear before we start having that conversation."

Mark Appel, RHP
James' rank: 80
Median rank: 47

"My ranking inside the top-100 is more than fair given what we've seen (or not seen) from Appel so far. We obviously can't close the book and say there's no way he reaches his ceiling as No. 2 starter in fantasy, but I also don't think we should act like that is an inevitability. Aaron Nola, Matt Wisler, Jake Thompson and Eduardo Rodriguez all have similar ceilings with much fewer questions surrounding their ability to reach that potential. In my entire top-200, my ranking of Appel has the potential to look the worst by season's end, but I just haven't seen enough sustained production to give him the benefit of the doubt at this point."

C.J. Edwards, RHP
James' rank: 135
Median rank:88

"I've covered this before in various places, but again it comes down to durability and size for me. These two things are related when we're talking about Edwards, and I'm very concerned that he will end up in the bullpen. He's another guy I could be dead wrong about, because when he's out there, the production is usually pretty excellent. However, on only 12 occasions since 1990 has a pitcher who was at least 6-foot-3 (Edwards' height) and weighed less than 171 pounds (Edwards is listed at 170) been able to pitch at least 162 innings in a season."

Derek VanRiper:
Clint Frazier, OF
DVR's rank: 105
Median rank: 52

"Frazier has a lot of raw ability, but I am scared off at the present time by his struggles to make contact consistently (161 strikeouts in 474 at-bats in the Midwest League last year). The tools are intriguing, but Bradley Zimmer seems more likely to put it all together if I am projecting their long-term values (both could be great). Depending on the make-up of a group of prospects already in tow in a dynasty league, there is a case to be made that Zimmer should be taken over lower-ceiling players like Albert Almora and Brandon Nimmo, or players closer to contributing for their clubs like Maikel Franco and Steven Moya."

Dan Vogelbach, 1B
DVR's rank: 197
Median rank: 82

"Vogelbach showed impressive pop during an AFL batting practice session that I watched, but he looks like a DH stuck in a National League organization. I wasn't thrilled by the quality of his at-bats in the game that I saw, and while small sample size caveats apply to watching a player go to the plate four times, it's what I'm left to pair with what are (in my opinion, at least) disappointing power numbers in the Florida State League last season. Swaggy V is a player I really want to like, but I'm just not seeing the long-term value here in the current combination of tools and performance."

Alex Guerrero, TBD
DVR's rank: Not ranked
Median rank: 88

"The lack of a position for Guerrero is a major deterrent for me, though in fairness, my rankings skewed toward long-term value and dynasty settings more than 2015 contributions. He'd be a top 30-40 prospect for redraft leagues, but that the Dodgers couldn't find a way to utilize him beyond three games in the outfield in 2014 really scares me. That they made a point to acquire Howie Kendrick after unloading Dee Gordon to the Marlins, rather than make their $28 million man the starting second baseman, also speaks volumes about their evaluation of him. There is an opportunity for Guerrero somewhere in the big leagues, and his numbers around the Miguel Olivo incident at Triple-A Albuquerque were great, but would anyone be excited about him given his age, where he played last year, and the lack of a defensive position if he were born in Connecticut instead of Cuba?"

Clay Link:
J.P. Crawford, SS
Clay's rank: 52
Median rank: 38

"Crawford's a fine player, but the 24 combined stolen bases last year are deceiving -- I don't think he has the speed to steal 20-plus bags in the majors -- and the second-half power surge seems fluky as well. Seven of his eight home runs with High-A Clearwater came at Clearwater's home park, Bright House Field, which is one of the more homer-friendly parks in the Florida State League. The plate discipline is exceptional for a 20-year-old, but even with the glaring hole at short in Philadelphia, I don't see Crawford being an option for the big club before late 2016 or maybe even 2017."

Dalton Pompey, OF
Clay's rank: 54
Median rank: 39

"While proximity did weigh heavily in my rankings, I still could not justify pumping Pompey any higher than No. 54. His rise through the Blue Jays' system was remarkable, and the speed is great, but there's virtually no power to speak of and his 66.7 percent contact rate in the majors last season was troubling. Granted, that was in a very small sample (43 plate appearances), and he's enjoyed success so far this spring (.310 average) but Pompey will have his ups and downs this season, and long-term, I'm not sure he's much more than a two-category roto option."

Micah Johnson, 2B
Clay's rank: 108
Median rank: 77

"A ninth-round pick in 2012, Johnson has been able to maintain respectable strikeout rates as he's progressed through the minors, and he can draw a walk, but there's simply not a lot of upside outside of stolen bases. He is able to use his great speed to maintain high BABIPs, but he's still only hit above .275 at one stop above Low-A and that was a highly anomalous .329 mark in a 37-game stint at Double-A a season ago. His OPS fell nearly 200 points with the move up to Triple-A last year (from .880 to .684). Like with Pompey, the power is lacking, and the lower-body issues he dealt with last season concern me a bit for a player whose game is predicated on his ability to run."

Please feel free to submit any player-specific questions in the comments section or at us directly on Twitter: @RealJRAnderson, @DerekVanRiper, @claywlink.