Regan's Rumblings: Strange Early Numbers

Aaron Judge's six homers in five games is clearly the talk of the league right now, but there are some other performances that stand out early. Let's take a look at a few of them:

Teoscar Hernandez' 70 percent hard-hit rate

That rate is tied with one Aaron Judge and is five percentage points behind league leader, Willson Contreras. The hard-hit balls have resulted in an early .321/.355/.821 slash, with six of his nine hits having gone for extra bases, including four home runs. He's still posted a subpar 9:2 K:BB in 31 PA, but if Hernandez can continue to be even close to this locked in over the rest of the season, the power numbers should be there at the end. The 27-year-old has yet to really lock down regular playing time, primarily due to a 31.8 percent career strikeout rate that has let to a .239 BA. With 64 career home runs in 1,225 PA, he's demonstrated 30 HR power. Just realize the batting average is likely to crash at some point.

Tommy Pham – Five steals in 10 games

From 2017 to 2019, Pham hit 65 homers and swiped 65 bases, but he appears to have ramped up the steals game early in 2020. The fact that he's running this much while hitting in the middle of the order is a bit surprising, making me a bit skeptical that he's going to run anywhere close to that rate the rest of the way. Still, the Padres seem to be emphasizing the stolen base early, as their 14 steals are four more than the second-place club (Seattle), so a guy who can get on base at the pace Pham does, should continue to have opportunities. We know Petco Park suppresses offense, but it doesn't suppress the ability to get on base and run.

Tyler Chatwood – 17.2 percent swinging-strike rate

We all knew that there were going to be outliers in a 60-game (I hope) season. Superstars are going to hit .220 (hello Ronald Acuna? Cody Bellinger?) and journeymen are going to be early front-runners for end-of-year awards. Enter Chatwood. In his first two starts against the Brewers and Pirates, Chatwood is 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and crazy 19:4 K:BB. The key for Chatwood is that he's been effective against LH hitters, a group that hit .306 and .316 against him the past two seasons, but are hitting just .133 this year. If you've somehow started Chatwood in both of his starts, you're probably in an NL-only league, but kudos either way. He gets the Royals later this week, so this may actually continue for another start…or more.

Mike Yastrzemski's .500 OBP

"He's almost 30"

"Dude is a fluke"

"Expect some regression"

We heard all that and more after the nearly 30-year-old made his MLB debut last year and surprised to the tune of a .272/.334/.518 slash, including 21 homers in 411 PA over 107 games. Yastrzemski's 26.0 K percentage and 7.8 BB percentage were average at best, with the strikeout rate seeming to limit his BA to the .260-.270 range. Prior to joining the Giants, Yastrzemski spent his career in the Orioles' organization and really never broke through. In 270 career games at Triple-A with Baltimore, Yastrzemski managed a very modest 25 homers and posted a .739 OPS. His 10.9 BB percentage and 23.2 K percentage weren't bad, but did anyone see this coming? He should continue hitting in the middle of the Giants' lineup, and after hitting .326 against southpaws a year ago, the lefty swinger should be able to avoid being part of any sort of platoon.

Donovan Solano leading the NL with 13 RBI

At RotoWire, we only provide preseason outlook paragraphs for players we think will have enough value to be drafted. Solano didn't get a writeup despite his having batted .330/.360/.456 with four homers in 228 PA in 2019. Entering this year, Solano was expected to make most of his starts against southpaws with Mauricio Dubon and Wilmer Flores also in the mix at second base, Evan Longoria handling third, and Brandon Crawford anchoring shortstop. Longoria began the year with an oblique injury, allowing Solano to see some at-bats at third, and he's taken advantage. Longoria is off to a hot start since his return, and with Dubon hitting .227, Solano appears to be the primary second baseman with Dubon picking up random starts at other positions. Solano won't hit for much power, but of his 15 hits, five have gone for extra bases (33.0 XBH percentage), an XBH rate that compares very favorably to his 21 percent mark prior to this year. Ride him while he's hot.

Shane Bieber's negative FIP

With a 5.6 WAR, Bieber was one of the league's better pitchers last year, going 15-8 with a 3.28 ERA, 10.9 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. So far, though, he's taken his game up multiple levels. Facing the Brewers and Pirates in his first two starts, Bieber has yet to allow a run in 14 innings, posting a 27:1 K:BB and a crazy -0.38 FIP. He's allowed nine baserunners and stranded 100 percent of them. The velocity on his fastball has never been elite, but it's already ticked up from 93.1 mph last year to 93.8 mph. In watching one of his starts, the announcers were commenting on Bieber mixing in his 12-6 curveball more, and that pitch was ridiculously effective in that outing. I've made countless mistakes in my drafts over the years, but in taking Bieber over second choice Griffin Canning in a minor league draft one year was one of those rare wins.

Joe Jimenez leading the league in saves

We have seen that closers on bad teams can have plenty of fantasy value (research Jose Mesa, Rockies), but Jimenez leading the league with four saves was unexpected. If you've rostered him from the get-go, congratulations, but there are plenty of red flags. Just look at his last outing against the Reds on Sunday in which he allowed one run on three hits. In addition, Jimenez' velocity is down from 95.2 mph to 93.6 mph early, resulting in just two strikeouts and a poor 5.2 percent swinging-strike rate in five innings. That's in sharp contrast to the 11.8 K/9 Jimenez recorded from 2018-2019, so while the saves are nice, I'm not sure I see this continuing. The Tigers are hitting just .205 as a team, so it's tough to see the opportunities continuing to be there at this rate.

Ronald Acuna – .195 with a league-leading 18 Ks

When a guy hits 41 homers and steals 37 bases as a 21-year-old at the big-league level after posting a .918 OPS at age 20, I tend to give him plenty of slack. The Acuna slow start obviously isn't ideal for someone with a No. 2 ADP, but it is what it is. We knew things like this would happen in a shortened season. He'll be okay. In Saturday and Sunday's games against the Mets, Acuna went 3-for-8

Trent Grisham – 55.6 FB percentage and 46.4 percent hard-hit rate

These stats are pre-Monday's game, a game in which Grisham homered and walked in his first two at-bats to lift him to .282/.391/.692 with four home runs. Grisham is sitting pretty in the No. 2 spot in the Padres order, sandwiched between Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado. Not bad. Grisham of course came over from the Brewers in the Luis Urias deal after hitting .231/.328/.410 in 183 PAs in his first taste of big league pitching last season. He destroyed Triple-A pitching that season to the tune of .281/.471/.776, so he clearly has some juice in his bat, but the quick start this year has been surprising. If he can continue hitting the ball hard and in the air, he's shown 30-plus home run power (prorated of course), and he's capable of stealing double-digit bases. This is looking like a clear win of a deal for the Padres.

Elvis Andrus with a 3:6 K:BB

The Rangers would probably love to see Andrus' speed at the top of the order, but he's been bumped around the order a bit in recent years due to an OBP that has regressed to .308 and .313 the past two seasons. This year through eight games, Andrus is batting just .179, but he's also posted that 2.0 K:BB after being in the 0.35 to 0.42 range the past three seasons. The batting average will come back up, as a .200 BABIP for a guy with his legs will come around eventually, and if he can combine his early plate discipline with a .275 batting average, Andrus should be able to stick at the top of the order, and with second-year manager Chris Woodward seemingly a bit more willing to run, Andrus should be able to be among the league leaders in stolen bases.