We have a nine-game slate Thursday, and there are potentially profitable PrizePicks opportunities throughout the afternoon and evening. We highlight four of our favorites below:
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Bobby Witt, KCR vs. TEX: More Than 1.5 Total Bases
Witt is coming off a 3-for-5 night that included a double Wednesday, pushing his season line to an impressive .294/.352/.500 and his total-bases average to 1.9 per game for the season. Witt is in a good spot to potentially augment that figure Thursday, considering his matchup against a struggling southpaw in Patrick Corbin.
Corbin has outpaced expectations by a significant margin most of the season, but he's faded over the last three starts while pitching to a 12.10 ERA, 2.69 WHIP and 2.8 HR/9. He's also been appreciably more vulnerable on the road this season with a 5.17 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 1.6 HR/9 across 62.2 innings, and he's surrendered a .263 average, .330 wOBA and 1.3 HR/9 to right-handed hitters on the road.
Meanwhile, Witt has been lights-out against lefties, and he owns a .321 average, .823 OSP and .349 wOBA against them at home, where he's averaging 1.9 total bases per game as well. He's also already given Corbin a heap of trouble in the past, tormenting him for a .556 average, 1.556 OPS and nine total bases in nine career plate appearances.
Mookie Betts, LAD at COL: More Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Betts should be rested and refreshed for a favorable afternoon Coors Field matchup Thursday, as he enjoyed a night off Wednesday. The veteran has been squaring up on the ball well after opening August with a four-game hitless streak, as he boasts a .333 average and .865 OPS in his subsequent 13 games, a stretch where he's averaging 3.0 hits + runs + RBI per game.
The venue and conditions naturally set up favorably for him Thursday, including the matchup against Rockies starter Chase Dollander, who's checking with a massive 9.16 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, .325 BAA, .402 wOBA and 2.2 HR/9 across 37.1 home innings. For his part, Betts has a career .283 average and .808 OPS at Coors, accumulating 81 hits + runs + RBI in 33 career games there.
The Rockies bullpen also makes for a good target, given their 7.11 ERA, .312 BAA and .386 wOBA at home thus far in August.
Mark Vientos, NYM at WAS: More Than 4.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
Vientos has been getting good wood on the ball in August but running into some tough luck, as he's carrying just a .216 average and .225 OBP during the 40 plate appearances he's logged this month despite sporting an impressively low 12.5 percent strikeout rate, 23.5 percent line-drive rate and 50.0 percent hard-contact rate in that sample.
The culprit is an unsustainably low .188 BABIP, which is bound to correct at any moment considering how well Vientos is making contact. We'll bank on some of that positive regression coming Thursday in an opposite-handed matchup against MacKenzie Gore, who Vientos has reached safely against in four of nine career plate appearances via a double, a homer and a pair of walks.
Vientos has a .250 average but just a 12.8 percent strikeout rate against lefties on the road, while Gore has allowed 13 extra-base hits (out of 38 hits total) and pitched to a 3.3 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9 against right-handed hitters at home. Vientos has fantasy-point totals of 23/18/5 in his last three games alone, and he's capable of clearing this threshold with just one swing of the bat.
Ryan O'Hearn, SDP vs. SFG: More Than 0.5 Total Bases
O'Hearn is heating up after a slow start to his Padres tenure, generating a .400 average and 1.229 OPS across the 21 plate appearances covering his last seven games. The veteran slugger has compiled an impressive 18 total bases in that span as well, and this prop is one he's particularly well-suited to eclipse Thursday.
O'Hearn has a brief but encouraging history against Giants starter Justin Verlander, who he's gone 3-for-3 against in his career. Verlander did twirl seven scoreless innings against the Rays in his most recent trip to the mound, but he's been uneven all season and has allowed a .281 average and .347 wOBA to left-handed hitters while also pitching to a significantly elevated 6.24 xFIP against them on the road.
Then, when Verlander exits, O'Hearn will take aim at a Giants bullpen that's pitched to an 8.20 ERA, .303 BAA and .377 wOBA against left-handed hitters on the road since the All-Star break.
