Phillies-Padres, Rays-White Sox & More MLB Bets and Expert Picks for Friday, April 26

Written by

Michael Rathburn

Published on April 26, 2024

MLB Bets and Expert Picks for

Friday, April 26

YTD 34-42 (-6.58 units)

Prior article 6-3 (+0.43 units)

Prior article recap (a lot of work to just get +0.43 units on 6-3)

Joe Ryan 7+ strikeouts for 0.5 unit (FanDuel -132)
- Ryan 8+ strikeouts for 0.25 unit (FanDuel +144)
  - Ryan was rolling in this game and I originally was going up to nine strikeouts, but peeled back on it. He finished with eight, which worked out great.
Garrett Crochet 7+ strikeouts for 0.25 unit (FanDuel +110)
- Crochet was at six strikeouts through four innings, but was at 87 pitches and 65 percent strikes. Felt like a quick hook and cost us.
Joe Boyle OVER 3+ walks for 0.25 unit (DraftKings -180)
- Similar to Ryan, I originally wanted to push this to 4+ walks, but decided to stay put at the high juice at three. He went three innings and had four walks.
Yankees OVER 4.5 runs for 0.25 unit (DraftKings -130)
- The Yankees crush right-handed pitching and put up seven runs total in the game
Yankees -1.5 for 1 unit (BetRivers -105)
- The Yankees won 7-3 as they only had one bad inning where they allowed three runs to the A's in the sixth.
Braves -1.5 for 1 unit (FanDuel -118)
- The Braves bullpen allowed two runs in the ninth and then had to come back in the 10th just to win the game. They had a 3-1 lead after three innings, making this one frustrating.
Lopez OVER 16.5 outs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -135)
- Lopez rolled in this game and has been great all year with 21 recorded outs.
Sixto Sanchez UNDER 2.5 strikeouts for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -105)
- Sanchez goes 2.2 innings and ended up with 3 strikeouts. This could have been a huge clean sweep, but three marginal losses is what baseball is all about.

DAILY SLATE NOTES

There are some good starting pitchers going today, but one thing that jumped out to me was all of the totals between 7.5 and 8.5 runs. Also, the majority of the money lines were between -100 and -150 so this makes for a lower-scoring competitive slate on paper.

WEATHER IMPACT

Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark.

BULLPEN USAGE

You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5 inning play.

WEEKEND/DAY GAMES MLB BETTING

Lineups can get very tricky especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game.

MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)

1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals medium plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)

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Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox

One of my favorite system plays when I see two strong starting pitchers with a reasonable moneyline (between -100 and -150), and favorable weather conditions (48 degrees). We get that with Shota Imanaga against Kutter Crawford. Because these are not two household "ace" type names, I think there is great value on the UNDER 8, which should be close to 7 or 7.5.

Both pitchers combined have allowed a total of four earned runs over a combined nine starts.

Normally, I would be going with the UNDER on the F5, but l like the cushion on the full game total. The UNDER 3.5 runs in F5 leaves not a lot of margin for error, but eight runs over the full game makes more sense as the Red Sox used five relievers yesterday.

MLB Picks for Cubs at Red Sox

Cubs/Red Sox UNDER eight runs for 0.75 unit (DraftKings -105)
Kutter Crawford OVER 16.5 outs for 0.75 unit (DraftKings -110)

Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres

The first thing I look at when handicapping baseball is the starting pitching and what is the difference between both against the moneyline. In this case, I think we get great value on Aaron Nola against Joe Musgrove. The Phillies are just -110 here and playing better baseball at 8-2 last 10, 14-6 last 20 and 11-4 against righties; while the Padres are just 5-5 last 10 and 6-8 at home.

Nola had one bad start against the Braves to start the season, but has rolled in his last four starts with a 1.67 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. Musgrove has allowed at least three earned runs in five out of six starts. There are red flags on Musgrove as his strikeout rate is just 16.8 and walk rate is up to eight.

Musgrove's numbers are regressing and the Phillies are in a prime spot to put up some runs here. I like the RACE numbers here on DraftKings because we also get the Phillies on the road and up first each inning.

MLB Picks for Phillies at Padres

Phillies ML for 1 unit (PointsBet -110)
Phillies RACE to 3 runs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -105)

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Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox

I looked at -1.5 and -2.5 with the Rays here, but I could not justify it even with Chris Flexen on the mound for the White Sox. My concern is Zach Eflin can get lit up and this is on the road. I cannot justify taking the White Sox in any fashion except maybe with +2.5 runs, but the game script of the Rays jumping on Flexen early plays into another RACE bet with some risk. This means the Rays have to get to five runs in order for this to cash in addition to being the first ones. In Flexen's three starts the opponents have scored a total of 11, nine and three runs.

MLB Picks for Rays at White Sox

Rays RACE to 5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)

St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets

I look at this line and I think the Cardinals are still getting too much respect from oddsmakers. They are bottom five against right-handed pitching in wRC+ and Miles Mikolas has a 6.49 ERA this season. Jose Butto has been solid for the Mets with a 1.65 ERA in 16.1 innings and the Mets are the better ballclub right now. Give me the Mets on the moneyline at what I think its at least -20 to -30 cents underpriced.

MLB Picks for Cardinals at Mets

Mets ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -130)

MLB Best Bets Today Recap

Cubs/Red Sox UNDER 8 runs for 0.75 unit (DraftKings -105)
Kutter Crawford OVER 16.5 outs for 0.75 unit (DraftKings -110)
Phillies ML for 1 unit (PointsBet -110)
Phillies RACE to 3 runs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -105)
Rays RACE to 5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
Mets ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -130)