This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Expert Picks and Player Props for April 21
Happy Sunday! It's a beautiful weather day for baseball in most of the US. Let's try to win some bets today and not pull an oblique while we are at it.
Orioles at Royals
Two years ago, this matchup would have produced a cacophony of yawns. Fast forward to 2024 and the Orioles look like a surefire playoff team with more crazy-good young players than spots to play them. Meanwhile, the Royals have re-tooled into a nice mix of solid vets and promising upstarts of their own and look poised to remain in contention all season.
As well as the Royals have played at times, it is the Orioles that look the part of the bully in this matchup. Yet we have the opportunity here to grab the Birds as an underdog for only the second time in 2024. It does not take rocket science to see why as the pitching matchup tilts heavily toward Kansas City.
Seth Lugo takes the hill for the Royals and has gotten off to a 3-0 start with a sparkling 1.05 ERA. But a look not very far below the surface reveals more of the very nice mid-rotation guy they signed and not some late-career ascent into ace-dom. Lugo has just 13 Ks to go with 6 BBs in 25.2 innings, good for a 6.9 percent K-B%, backed by a career worst 7.8 percent SwStr%. What he has done well is induce poor contact, yielding a 4.9 percent Barrel rate, 33.3 percent HardHit rate with just an 8.6-degree launch angle. Long story short, Lugo throws strikes, goes 6.1 IP/S, which sounds like Nolan Ryan in today's game and relies on his defense and some general batted ball luck to make it all work.
Now it is not totally fair to compare Lugo to his former self as he has spent most of his career in the Mets' bullpen, occasionally quite successfully. But we can compare him to others and this has all translated to a 3.72 xERA and 4.76 SIERA. He also has faced the White Sox in two of his four starts, with the others against Minnesota and Houston. The White Sox incidentally have been shut out seven times already this season and sport league-worst 68 wRC+ vs. Righties, while the Twins at 77 wRC+ is the second worst. The Orioles Triple-A affiliate, the Norfolk Tides, would arguably provide a stiffer test.
Lugo unfortunately has to deal with the actual Orioles, who have torched righties to a 124 wRC+. Baltimore's biggest issue in 2024 is that Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez can only pitch every fifth day and Kyle Bradish has just started his minor league rehab. Yes it all calls out for flipping another one of their Norfolk hitting prospects for an SP, but that is still a few months away, if ever.
For today, they will throw Cole Irvin and his ugly 6.75 ERA. Irvin's K-BB rate of 9.1 percent actually beats out Lugo, but the big difference is that batters tee off when they make contact. And they put the ball in play a lot as he has just a 5.4 percent SwStk%, while yielding an 18 percent Barrel rate and 46 percent HardHit percentage. His spring training velocity jump that got Fantasy drafters mildly interested last month has not translated into better results..
So why go with the Orioles? My thought here is that you have two very good offenses, while the pitching matchup is not quite as one-sided as the surface numbers indicate. Once the game gets to the bullpen, which will certainly happen by the sixth in Baltimore's case, the Royals' advantage dissolves and the Orioles sit second in the league with a 2.94 bullpen SIERA, while KC sits third from the bottom at 4.58. The rare chance to get the Birds as a dog these days is worth crossing my fingers through the Irvin start.
The Pick
Orioles +105 (BetMGM)
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White Sox at Phillies
Is there any total number low enough to account for the White Sox' historically terrible offense? As mentioned earlier, they have absorbed seven shutouts already. The Dodgers and Braves may not combine for that many all season. Chicago has batted .190 as a team with an OBP of .268 and SLG of .290, good for 2.15 runs per game, all easily worst in MLB. The betting totals reflect this, of course, yet the White Sox have still gone just 7-12 to the Over with a -29.7 percent ROI as per VSiN. Their best hitter, Luis Robert, idles on the IL with a hip injury. Their best healthy hitter is probably 36-year-old Fantasy Football enthusiast Tommy Pham, but he just signed and still needs to ramp up in the minors
Oddly enough, the Phillies have disappointed the Overs crowd almost as badly, going just 8-13, -27.3 percent ROI. That has more to do with a very good lineup simply underperforming expectations than being actually bad. Still, the Phils have not quite kicked it into high gear yet as their overall 95 wRC+ would attest. Bryce Harper (.237 AVG), J.T. Realmuto (28.4% K%) and Bryson Stott (.269 wOBA) have started slowly. Nick Castellanos (0 HR, .187 AVG, .223 wOBA) has imploded.
Aaron Nola starts for the Phillies and while his 2-1, 3.47 ERA marks look good, his velocity has dipped as has his K percentage to a career-low 19.8 percent. He did pitch much better in his last outing vs. the Road Rockies (7.1 IP, one ER, nine Ks) and he gets an even easier lineup to navigate this go around. Nick Nastrini will get the ball for the White Sox, and he pitched credibly in his lone MLB outing, two runs in five IP vs. the Royals with three hits, two walks and 5 Ks.
The Phillies offense came alive a bit last night, but they may have to take out the Total all by themselves.
The Pick
Under 7.5
