Oak's Corner: Time to Trade for Moustakas?

The Week That Was

Tim Anderson made headlines this week after an aggressive bat flip got him thrown at in his next at bat, and it all caused a bit of a ruckus with the Royals. Of course, in the fantasy realm the talk with Anderson has been the .422 batting average to go with his four homers and a league-leading seven steals. Anderson has been known for striking out a lot while never walking, and while he is still not walking at all (well, that's not totally true, he does have one walk), he has managed to cut his strikeout rate under 20 percent so far.

With an average that high, we clearly expect to see a high BABIP helping out some, but Anderson's is way more than just high at .479. Well, he must be hitting the ball hard at least, right? Nope, not impressive, with a below average 25.5 percent hard hit rate. His fly ball rate is also low, as usual, at just under 30 percent. The stolen bases are really nice and show that he is being very aggressive, but without hitting the ball hard or walking, the opportunities he will get to run are going to dry up quickly. The ability to sell Anderson high probably varies by league, but I would be doing anything I could to sell him at this current peak, as the batting average crash is coming, and it won't be pretty. He did go 20/26 last year, and while he clearly is running enough to match that stolen base number again, I would take the under on 20 homers, and I'd definitely take the under on a .250 batting average by the time we're all done.

Mike Moustakas does have six homers already on the season but he's hitting an ugly .231 so far and striking out more than usual with a 19.7 percent strikeout rate. His swinging strike rate is directly in line with his last couple of seasons, so I'm assuming that strikeout rate will come down soon, and there is a lot in this profile to like right now. Of course, on the surface, one has to love getting to hit in this Brewers lineup and playing half his home games in Miller Park.

While the average has started out on the low end, Moustakas is having no issue stinging the ball so far. He has a 50 percent hard hit rate through his first 76 plate appearances, a number that clearly won't remain that high but is also not one where a .208 BABIP is going to last very long. Also, when you combine his large amount of hard contact with the 51 percent fly ball rate, the homers are certainly going to keep on coming. The six homers may make it tough to make a move for him, but with his average soon on the rise combined with a slew of homers, I'd certainly approach his owner about a trade and hope the low average might allow you to get him for his draft day price.

With the spring news that Rafael Devers could be hitting third quite often for the Red Sox, he saw some buzz late in draft season, but he has done very little to pay off on the buzz so far, and a deep look doesn't give a lot of reason for optimism. He does, surprisingly, have two steals but that goes along with zero homers, a .262 average and a mere two RBI. Slow starts happen, and he still has a good lineup spot in what will eventually be a great offense, but his batted ball stats are a reason for concern in the early going.

Devers currently sports a very weak 28.3 percent hard hit rate, which is down from the 34 percent he posted the last two seasons, and even more concerning is his current fly ball rate, which is 15.4 percent, good for the lowest in baseball. You can't afford to sell Devers right now with the his current stats, but I also wouldn't look to buy low on him either right now.

As a quick side note, I'm not especially concerned as of yet, but I have to admit I was surprised when looking at the hard hit leaderboards from the first three weeks to see both Victor Robles and Eloy Jimenez both ranking in the bottom five. Jimenez hit an opposite field homer on Thursday that was very impressive, and I believe, especially with him, the hard contact will be on its way shortly.

FAAB Feelings

Hunter Dozier. It has only been three weeks of stats, but so far, Dozier looks like a completely different player then he was in 2018. He has dropped his strikeout rate from 28.1 to 17.9 percent while also significantly upping his walk rate to 11.9 percent. He hit the ball hard last year, but with the strikeouts and a lack of fly balls, his upside was capped and his batting average had legit downside. He is still hitting the ball hard at a 43.5 percent rate, but so far this year, he is doing it with many more fly balls, as he has increased his fly ball rate from 36.6 to 45.7 percent.

All of these gains are extremely interesting, but we need to see them stabilize over a longer period of time, but if he can maintain a good portion of them, he becomes a very interesting acquisition, even hitting in a weak offense. Aside from the Cleveland starters and maybe Jose Berrios and Matthew Boyd, Dozier is in the division where you are likely to find a lot of spots to use him in strong matchups. His dual eligibility at first and third base also adds a little boost to his value. Dozier has already been snapped up in most NFBC 15-team drafts as most everyday players are, but he is only owned in 27 percent of NFBC 12-teamers, and I think he's a must add this week, and I'll closely watch those key stats to see if it was merely a hot start or whether he has actually improved and altered his approach at the plate.

Spencer Turnbull. There are not a lot of two-start options this week on the waiver wire, as most of the guys projected to go twice were either too widely owned to write up in this space or are guys I want no part of. Yes, I'm talking about you Matt Harvey. Turnbull is an interesting arm ,and while the second start is solid on paper against the White Sox, I'm concerned about the first one in Fenway, even with a struggling Red Sox lineup. So far, Turnbull only has one rough start, against the Indians, where he allowed eight hits in only four innings, but his other three starts have been pretty solid.

Turnbull has posted a 10.3 K/9 strikeout rate, and that rate is well supported by an 11.2 percent swinging strike rate. He had some issues with walks in Double-A last season, with a walk rate of 3.65 BB/9 but he has cut that to 3.00 BB/9, and, most impressively, his first pitch strike percentage of 66.7 puts him top-15 in baseball right now. He isn't likely to get many wins pitching in Detroit this year, but in a season that looks very difficult to find pitchers to pick up, Turnbull at least has some intrigue to him, and pitching the AL Central should help with picking matchups. As for this week, I think I'm risking him in 15-teamers and holding my breath for the Fenway start, but probably not using him in a 12-teamer, but putting him on the team and watching these starts closely to decide whether he is a long-term play.

A Closer Look

We are getting to the point of the year where I like to take a look at some of the weaker bullpens to try and identify some arms who were not originally in the closer mix, but due to early success and no locked-in closer in front of them, could easily find their way into a high-leverage role and possibly some save opportunities as the year progresses. This attack early breakout reliever strategy netted us Corey Knebel in 2017 and allowed us to identify a guy like Lou Trivino last year, who never got into the closer role but helped deep leaguers in the ratio and strikeout categories.

Nick Anderson. In last week's FAAB bidding, Anderson started to get some attention due to his hot start but is still only owned in 41 percent of the NFBC Main Event 15-team leagues and a mere five percent of the NFBC 12-team leagues. Anderson was obtained by the Marlins from the Twins in an offseason trade, as the Twins likely weren't going to be able to protect him in the Rule 5 Draft. Anderson had an intriguing 2018 campaign in Triple-A for the Twins, posting a 3.30 ERA with an impressive 13.2 K/9 strikeout rate.

He has jumped into his first taste of the majors this year with both feet, striking out 17 batters in only 8.2 innings while only walking two, and both of those were intentional walks. He throws hard at 95.5 mph, and while he is only a two-pitch guy (also throws a slider), that can work in one-inning stints. Most exciting for Anderson is that no one in the back end of the Marlins bullpen is doing anything to lock down the job, as Sergio Romo has an ERA of 9.00, Adam Conley boasts a 8.10 ERA, and while Drew Steckenrider does have a Whip under 1.00, his ERA is 7.88 and he continues to be prone to big innings. Anderson is still a few hurdles away from the saves mix, but the ratios and strikeouts carry some value now, and if the other guys continue to struggle, he could find his way to the back end of the pen before too long, and in deep leagues, the time to grab him is now.

Robert Stephenson. Closer Raisel Iglesias has struggled to start 2019, sporting a 6.75 ERA in 6.2 innings, while allowing eight hits and walking five. He has had six outings to start the year and has recorded a scoreless appearance in only two of the six. If the Reds were to make a change or maybe just use Iglesias in a different fashion, the former first rounder Stephenson could be who they turn to. This season is Stephenson's first year moving to the pen, and the results have been amazing so far. He's allowed only one run through 9.1 innings with 12 strikeouts and only one walk, which like Anderson above, was of the intentional variety.

His move to the pen has really helped his velocity, as it often does, as he is averaging 94.7 mph on his fastball and also throwing his slider harder than ever at 85.3 mph. It is obviously still early, but one look at that 17.4 percent swinging strikeout rate is enough for me to take a shot on him, especially behind a struggling closer. I think Stephenson is an add right now (and maybe useable depending on your starting pitcher matchups that week) in a 15-teamer and a speculative play in a 12-teamer if you have a roster spot to use and have a saves deficiency you are hoping to work on.

Series of the Weekend

Dodgers @ Brewers. The Red Sox series in Tampa is certainly very intriguing, but the likely fireworks from the Brewers heading to Miller Park is too good of a series not to highlight. Both teams enter their four-game set leading their divisions and also feature the two best hitters in baseball to date in Cody Bellinger and the 2018 MVP Christian Yelich, who actually both homered again in the Dodgers 3-1 win on Thursday night. I expect there to be a lot of offense this weekend in Milwaukee, as the Brewers are currently averaging six runs a game at home, and the Dodgers average nearly six per contest on the road. In addition, both squads rank in the top four in homers so far on the year.

For all the offense they possess, the Brewers have had trouble with their starting pitching out of the gate and feature only one starter (Zach Davies) with an ERA under 5.00. At the time I am writing this, their Saturday starter to replace Freddy Peralta is up in the air, but on Friday and Sunday, they are sending two of those starters with ERA's over 5.00 to the mound in Jhoulys Chacin and Brandon Woodruff.

I'm still very intrigued by Woodruff, as his swinging strike rate has jumped up to 11.1 percent and he has dropped his walks a bit from the last couple seasons to 2.61 BB/9. His BABIP is very high at .382, and his low strand rate of 67.4 percent has hurt, but I want to keep a close eye on his batted ball profile in the next few starts, as his hard rate, after not being an issue the last couple years, currently sits at an insane 56.1 percent through his first four starts. This start against the Dodgers will be an interesting watch as we try and figure which path Woodruff goes down this season.

The aforementioned Bellinger has, deservedly so, soaked up all the headlines on the Dodgers offense, but a former top prospect, Joc Pederson, has also been on fire to start the year, including a two-run walk-off homer off Raisel Iglesias earlier this week. Pederson not only has eight homers in only 61 at-bats, he has also scored 16 runs to go with 14 RBI and is leading off often when the Dodgers face a righty.

After a huge bust of a season in 2017 where he hit .212 with 11 homers, Pederson bounced back (kind of quietly, too) with 25 homers and a .248 average last season. His 2018 hard hit rate jumped out at me and put him on my radar for drafts, as it went from 33 percent in 2017 to 42 percent in 2018. He also increased his fly ball rate from 34.5 to 43.6 percent while also dropping his strikeouts under 20 percent, a far cry from the early years of his career when he was at nearly 30 percent. His inability to hit lefties is always going to be an issue, but in a daily moves league or even an NFBC style league with biweekly moves, he makes for a very nice play when you can aggressively play matchups.