Oak's Corner: One Final Month

It's wild that after this weekend, we have a mere four weeks left in the baseball season. The season always feels long in the middle, but then it seems to speed up and soon enough, we will all be itching for it to start again. Four weeks is still plenty of time to grind out some much needed points, and with this Sunday being the last FAAB period without NFL regular season games on, we are about to see a drop in the activity in free agent bidding as people's focus and attention gets severely altered on Sundays.

I tell the story too often, but just to emphasize how much every week or half-week mattered, my NFBC Main Event league last year came down to one Josh Hader strikeout in the tiebreaker playoff game. The league would have changed winners with one more strikeout in that game by Hader (and man, would I have been pissed about losing due to the extra games, ha), and of course, a ton of stats went into those standings before that, but it goes to show how close categories can be. Make sure to keep your focus on where you can gain and fall these final four weeks. I'm expanding the FAAB Feelings section this week to try and find some low owned players who can help you in the final month.

The Week That Was

This Liam Hendriks season has been wild. Hendriks has moved from working as the opener in the A's Wild Card in 2018 with a 4.13 ERA to converting 17 saves for the A's with a 1.43 ERA less than a year later. His strikeout rate has taken a gigantic step up from 8.3 K/9 to 12.4 K/9 while his swinging strike rate has increased nearly five percent to its current massive 15.9 percent. While striking out a bunch more batters, he has also dropped his walk rate to 2.5 BB/9 from 3.8 BB/9 last year.

This breakout has been really surprising as after posting a nice 2.92 ERA in 2015 as his first year as a reliever, he has spent the last three seasons with the A's lingering around a 4.00 ERA. The jump in velocity definitely can help explain some of the improvement as his average fastball velocity of 96.2 mph is easily the highest of his career, and I have seen him touch 98 mph on many occasions. In a recent postgame interview, Hendriks attributed another part of his progress to trying to throw his breaking ball more than strikes that he used to.

Of course, a huge part of the value Hendriks has been able to provide for fantasy owner stems from the fact that 2018 closer Blake Treinen has struggled almost all season long with a shocking 4.86 ERA, up just a tad from his 0.78 mark in 2018. How Hendriks pitches the last four weeks and the playoffs will of course impact how the A's enter 2020 with their bullpen, but with both Treinen and Hendriks signed for 2020, but I would have to think Hendriks enters as the closer next season and if the velocity can stay where it is now that he will provide a lot of saves next year with Treinen working in setup to start. It sure does seem so long ago that Treinen was the consensus number two reliever off the board in drafts this spring, oh relief pitchers.

The season of Clayton Kershaw has been a lot of fun, but the real stud in that rotation going forward is clearly Walker Buehler. Through 25 starts and 154.1 innings, Buehler has posted a 3.03 ERA and upped his strikeout rate to 10.8 K/9. In addition to the strikeout bump, he has also improved his control, dropping his walk rate to 1.6 BB/9. The former first rounder is still only 25 and the real question moving towards next year really comes in just how high he moves up in drafts.

I spoke a bit about Buehler with Brian Slack of Baseball HQ on a recent RotoWire podcast and I think Buehler comes off the board as the fifth pitcher in ADP next year behind Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander. The recent injury to Scherzer could hinder that prediction if it flares back up and it is possible that drafters get a bit scared by Verlander's age, but I still think those end up being the first four pitchers off the board, with likely all four going with a first round ADP in the NFBC Main Event 15-team drafts.

The one negative in Buehler's profile is that he has allowed more hard contact this year with a 42.6 percent hard hit rate and has allowed a 6 percent barrel rate after only 4.3 percent last season. His velocity looks great at 96.6 mph and with four pitches at over ten percent usage and three of those four with a positive pitch value on Fangraphs, he clearly is mixing his pitches well too. I love watching Buehler pitch and he is likely going to be my SP5 heading into drafts next year and that ranking is not going to drop, but there is a chance I push him higher after some off-season research. 

FAAB Feelings

Johnny Cueto. Cueto is making his way back from 2018 Tommy John surgery and made his first start in Triple-A this week, throwing 65 pitches over 4.1 innings while allowing two runs and striking out three. Cueto's command so far in his minor league outings has been impressive with only one walk in 15.1 total rehab innings. Prior to getting injured in 2018, Cueto was posting a great season with a 3.23 ERA in 53 innings, but it should be pointed out that his strikeout rate had dropped to 6.5 K/9 and his FIP was 4.71.

Cueto indicated after his last minor league start that he was pleased with his command, but wanted one more rehab start in triple-A to build up arm strength before moving up to the Giants. If the Giants stick to that schedule, that puts Cueto back in the rotation in the back half of this upcoming week with a nice soft landing spot….at the Dodgers (yes, I am kidding). So while that cannot be used, especially as a first start back, his start the next week would be home against the Pirates or Marlins, a very appealing start if he looks decent in his first MLB start. In a 15-team league, I will look to bid Cueto this week and sit him for the first start and in a 12-teamer, I think I am going to wait and watch that Dodgers start to see how he looks and then decide whether I want to take a stab on him for the better matchup and use the roster spot this week for someone else.

Mike Montgomery. I will only hit on Montgomery quickly as he has been added in almost all deeper leagues, but at only 62 percent owned in NFBC 12-team leagues, he is worth a mention and a pickup this week as his two-start week originally scheduled for this week was pushed and he will now get a very appealing two start week facing the Tigers and Marlins. If you are unfamiliar with who the Tigers are tossing in their lineup down the stretch, take a quick look at their lineup Thursday against Mike Clevinger, it is anything but impressive. After a string of good starts, Montgomery did have a hiccup with five runs against the Orioles, but bounced back nicely this week with a 6.2 inning, one earned run outing with six strikeouts against the A's. Montgomery has pitched well over the last month or so and taking that into account plus the fantastic projected schedule makes him a bid for me if happens to be still be on your waiver wire.

Patrick Sandoval. In the "if you need strikeouts badly" bucket this week, we find Sandoval who gets two starts this week, one that will probably be pretty tough against the A's (although they are only middle of the pack in runs scored since the break) and then a nice one against the White Sox who rank 28th in baseball in runs scored since the break. Sandoval pitched exceptionally well this week against the Rangers, throwing five innings while allowing one hit and striking out nine.

If you need wins, he is not going to be a good play as he has only completed five innings in two of his five outings. However, strikeouts are tough to come by and he currently has a strikeout rate of 10.9 K/9 in his limited MLB time after posting a 9.9 K/0 rate in 60.1 Triple-A innings and showed a high strikeout rate through the minors in 2018. The two start week (and the matchups) is the main appeal for Sandoval at this point and I think he posts double digit strikeouts this week, which could be a nice push if you are looking to make up ground in that category while the matchups hopefully keep the ratios at a manageable level.

Sam Hilliard. Any time an offensive prospect is called up by the Rockies, we have to take notice due to the appeal of Coors Field. All it takes it one look at Hilliard's Triple-A line for that notice to move to intrigue as through 126 games in Triple-A, Hilliard hit 35 homers while stealing 20 bases. The homers has been a huge bump (as we have seen for many Triple-A guys this year) from his nine homers in Double-A in 2018, but he has shown pop in the minors in prior seasons with 21 big flies in 2017.

Of course, any time we deal with the Rockies, we have to consider the playing time implications as they love to call up young and interesting players and then not give them a full time shot in the lineup. After homering in his debut, Hillard sat against a lefty on Wednesday, but then homered yet again on Thursday night. It looks like Hilliard currently resides on the bulk side of a platoon in Colorado unless he hits so well that he slams down the door and forces Colorado's hand to play him every day. He likely makes a better play in daily or twice weekly moves than a traditional weekly league as you can take more advantage of Coors and platoon matchups in those formats. However, anyone with that line who gets half his games in Coors deserves a long look and he is readily available in every league this week as he is exactly zero percent owned in NFBC 12 and 15-team contests.

Mauricio Dubon. The Giants made some noise this week when they promoted Dubon, acquired in a mid-season trade with the Brewers for Drew Pomeranz, and designated Scooter Gennett for assignment. It is unclear how the playing time will work between him and Donovan Solano at second base, but if Dubon can carve out regular playing time there or as a utility player, he is an intriguing add in fantasy league for the final four weeks.

As is the case with many players this year, Dubon had a power breakout this year in Triple-A, slugging 20 homers in 123 games after never topping eight homers at any other level. In addition to the newfound pop, Dubon presents some stolen base help with ten so far this year, but he also has flashed more upside there with 38 steals in 2017. He also appears to be a guy who will help your batting average as he hit over .300 in Triple-A this year and has been a nice average guy throughout his time in the minors and makes really solid contact. I want to take a close look at his playing time and lineup spot this weekend (he hit 8th on Thursday which is clearly less than ideal), but if it looks like the Giants are committing to him playing most days, I think he is a bid in deeper leagues and maybe even a smaller bid in 12-teamers for someone looking to grab a few steals with a good average at their middle infield spot.

Series of the Weekend

Indians at Rays. The obvious answer here for me this weekend is the A's heading to New York with the Yankees looking to avenge the A's sweep last week, but I discussed the Yankees last week and everyone thinks I talk too much about the A's anyway, so I am going to shift to a huge battle between two of the three teams right in the mix for the two AL Wild card spots. The Indians find themselves in the top Wild Card spot 1.5 games ahead of the A's and the Rays are 2.5 games behind the Indians and currently out of the playoffs as they are one game behind Oakland for the second Wild Card. This weekend series is huge as both teams could alter the race significantly with a sweep, but even winning two out of three when you do get to play a competitor head to head is big. And while I obviously hope it isn't the case, this has a decent chance to be a preview of the AL Wild card game.

Prior to the season, the large appeal of the Indians was their starting rotation, anchored by three aces, all of whom were drafted in the top 30 of most fantasy drafts this season. Well, Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber have been hurt for much of the season and Trevor Bauer was very up and down and now resides with the Cincinnati Reds. As the Indians have made this playoff push, a lot of the credit goes to the two remaining starters who have stepped up huge for them in Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger. Even Clevinger missed over two months of the season and while he is back dealing now and shooting up draft boards, the real mainstay for the Tribe all year has been Bieber who started the year as their 5th starter.

Bieber has posted a 3.23 ERA in 175.1 innings, while bumping his strikeout rate nearly two batters per nine to 11.04 K/9, all while maintaining his elite control. He has altered his pitch mix in year two, throwing 13 percent less fastballs while upping the usage of all three of his breaking pitches, which could explain the spike in his swinging strike rate to 14.2 percent. It is not very often that a team is able to respond to these many injuries to its frontline starters, but Bieber has stepped up in a big way and is the clear MVP of the Indians rotation in 2019 and will take the mound Friday night to try and open this series in a winning fashion.

The Rays offense has been a bit sluggish in the second half, ranking in the bottom half of baseball in runs scored, OPS and slugging percentage. One guy who has done the opposite of struggle since the break is shortstop Willy Adames. After a rough first half where Adames hit only .237 with a .681 OPS, since the break, he is hitting .283 with an .822 OPS and seven homers in 41 games. In his rookie year, he posted a .278 average that looked good on the surface, but was helped a good amount by a .378 Babip while striking out too much at 29.4 percent.

Adames has shown some solid improvements in 2019 despite the .249 average, dropping his strikeout rate to 27.1 percent, but what I like the most about his growth from 2018 is the increased hard contact. After a 34.7 percent hard hit rate in 2018, Adames is at 41.6 percent in 2019 and he has boosted his line drive rate nearly five percent to 22.2 percent. Additionally, a look at his Statcast numbers support the 2019 growth as his average exit velocity has increased to 87.8 mph and his barrel percentage has increased nearly two percent to 8.4 percent. The surface numbers are not going to show a lot of growth for Adames, but at 23, I really like the improvements he had made in his game and he will definitely be a target for me at the price in 2020 drafts.

Enjoy your weekend and keep up the grinding!