NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

This article is part of our NL FAAB Factor series.

We have two goals for this article: 

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.

2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

Bids in general are best guesstimates. With so much uncertainty at least initially, those values may be even greater estimates than usual. The FAAB chart below lets users easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The chart, which is sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This operates as a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. An "A" grade is reserved for a high-impact prospect stepping into an everyday role.

If you have questions on players, I'm happy to provide my thoughts in the comments.

This is the third column of the season. Last week's article covered a substantive number of the players that might have been included this week. Those players' whose status have changed have been covered this week.

PLAYERTEAMPOSGRADE12-Team Mixed $15-Team Mixed $NL-Only $
Roansy ContrerasPITSPB159 (up in keeper leagues)
Drew SmylyCHCSPB125
Nick MartinezSDSPD013
Bryce ElderATLSPE012
Justin SteeleCHISPC258 (upped bid from prior)
Kyle WrightATLSPA4812

We have two goals for this article: 

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.

2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

Bids in general are best guesstimates. With so much uncertainty at least initially, those values may be even greater estimates than usual. The FAAB chart below lets users easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The chart, which is sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This operates as a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. An "A" grade is reserved for a high-impact prospect stepping into an everyday role.

If you have questions on players, I'm happy to provide my thoughts in the comments.

This is the third column of the season. Last week's article covered a substantive number of the players that might have been included this week. Those players' whose status have changed have been covered this week.

PLAYERTEAMPOSGRADE12-Team Mixed $15-Team Mixed $NL-Only $
Roansy ContrerasPITSPB159 (up in keeper leagues)
Drew SmylyCHCSPB125
Nick MartinezSDSPD013
Bryce ElderATLSPE012
Justin SteeleCHISPC258 (upped bid from prior)
Kyle WrightATLSPA4812 (upper bid from prior)
Nick LodoloCINSPD123
Aaron AshbyMILSPD134
David PetersonNYMSPE012
MacKenzie GoreSDSPD258
Josh RogersWASSPE012
Mychal GivensCHCRPB246
Lucas SimsCINRPB134
Art WarrenCINRPC124
Dylan FloroMIARPC012
Jake McGeeSFRPC124
Tomas NidoNYMCENoNo1
Andrew KnappPITCDNoNo1
Daniel VogelbachPIT1BCNo13
Brandon DruryCIN2BCNo14
Geraldo PerdomoARISSDNoNo1
Alan TrejoCOLSSENoNo0
Sergio AlcantaraARI3BENoNo0
Yonny HernandezARI3BDNoNo1
Maikel FrancoWAS3BB036
Travis JankowskiNYMOFENoNo0
Odubel HerreraPHIOFB038
Matt BeatySDOFC013

Starting Pitcher 

Kyle Wright, Atlanta 

This may be the last chance to add Wright, as he appears prepared to live up to his prospect pedigree. Entering 2022, he had posted a 14.8 percent walk rate across 70 innings at the major-league level. While a small sample, Wright has posted a 15:1 K:BB across 11 frames. His early-season performance should buy him time in the rotation. 12-team mixed: $4, 15-team mixed: $8, 12-team NL: $12 (upped bid from prior)

Bryce Elder, Atlanta 

Atlanta's plans for Elder are less clear, though he'll draw his second big-league start Sunday. It appears as if the club is willing to utilize a six-man rotation for the time being, but for how long is unknown. As for his skills, Elder is known more for the depth of his arsenal and command over his raw stuff. He's more likely to provide a floor as a result, but don't expect much in terms of upside. 12-team mixed: $0, 15-team mixed: $1, 12-team NL: $2

Justin Steele, Chicago 

With Wade Miley (elbow) and Adbert Alzolay (lat) sidelined, Steele has a clear role in the rotation. He's only allowed two earned runs in 9.1 innings while delivering a 9:3 K:BB without surrendering a home run. Steele also lines up for a two-start week with matchups against Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh. 12-team mixed: $2, 15-team mixed: $4, 12-team NL: $5 (upped bid from prior)

Drew Smyly, Chicago 

Smyly will get his difficult outing over with Sunday at Colorado. He's a short-term stream as he projects to take on Pittsburgh later in the week. He handled the Pirates in his opening start by delivering five shutout innings. 12-team mixed: $1, 15-team mixed: $2, 12-team NL: $5

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati 

Lodolo made his much-anticipated debut Wednesday against the Guardians. The results weren't impressive, but it's far too early to judge his skills in the majors. The primary concern is Lodolo's ability to hang onto a rotation spot as Luis Castillo (shoulder) nears a return. Lodolo is another pitcher that lines up for two starts this week against San Diego and St. Louis. 12-team mixed: $1, 15-team mixed: $2, 12-team NL: $3

Aaron Ashby, Milwaukee 

Ashby represent another player with an ambiguous role. He's starting Sunday against the Cardinals, and logic dictates that if that goes well the Brewers will opt for a six-man rotation. For now, keep the bids modest unless a multi-inning relief role is valuable in your league format. 12-team mixed: $1, 15-team mixed: $3, 12-team NL: $4

David Peterson, New York Mets 

Peterson carries a short-term role in the Mets' rotation with Taijuan Walker on the injured list due to shoulder bursitis. While Walker is expected to return shortly, Peterson is pegged to start at Arizona on Thursday. That matchup is enough to bid on him as a short-term add, especially considering he's stretched out enough to work at least five innings (assuming he pitches efficiently).  12-team mixed: $0, 15-team mixed:$1, 12-team NL: $2

Roansy Contreras, Pittsburgh 

Contreras is stuck in a relief role with the Pirates, but it seems only a matter of time before he enters the rotation. In the meantime, he's operated in a non-official piggyback role. The upside of those appearances was apparent Thursday when Contreras relieved JT Brubaker and delivered three scoreless frames with five strikeouts to earn the win. 12-team mixed: $1, 15-team mixed: $5, 12-team NL: $9 (repeat bid from last week)

MacKenzie Gore, San Diego  

Gore has had one of the more drastic turnarounds in recent memory. Though it's been a circuitous journey, he made his successful MLB debut Friday against a tough Atlanta lineup and held his own. Like other young starters on this list, Gore's role will become less clear once Blake Snell (groin) and Mike Clevinger (knee) return. 12-team mixed: $2, 15-team mixed: $5, 12-team NL: $8

Nick Martinez, San Diego  

Martinez is an interesting case. On one hand, he's the most logical candidate to be bumped from the rotation when either Clevinger or Snell comes back. He should still earn a few more starts, but is projected to face the Dodgers and the Reds (at Cincinnati) in his next two outings. That doesn't bode well after Martinez was hit hard by Atlanta on Saturday. Putting a bit of a positive spin on things, this may be the time to buy low on him. The combination of a poor outing and apparent impending bump from the rotation could drive down Martinez's value in FAAB (or demand on traditional waivers). If he sticks successfully in the rotation for the majority of the season, he'll come at a relative bargain now. 12-team mixed: $0, 15-team mixed: $1, 12-team NL: $3

Josh Rogers, Washington  

Rogers should have a regular rotation spot in the short-term. While he didn't turn in a great start at Pittsburgh on Saturday, he may have surpassed Joan Adon in terms of safety once Anibal Sanchez (neck) can return. If Rogers sticks in the rotation and stays on regular rest, he'd start against Arizona and Miami across the next two weeks and that would help mask his deficiency in skills. Before bidding on him, understand he could be optioned if Sanchez returns from the injured list when eligible and the team opts to roll out Adon instead. 12-team mixed: $0, 15-team mixed: $1, 12-team NL: $2

Relief Pitcher

Mychal Givens, Chicago  

David Robertson earned the first two saves of the season for the Cubs, and the job certainly seemed likely to stick given his success in those outings. However, Givens earned a save Friday and Robertson should have been available if the team chose to use him in the closer role. The best guess here is that Robertson remains the primary ninth-inning option, but Givens has now entered the picture. 12-team mixed: $2, 15-team mixed: $4, 12-team NL: $6

Lucas Sims/Art Warren, Cincinnati

The Reds haven't had many saves situations, so it's unclear who exactly covers as closer. Warren picked up the last save, while Tony Santillan hasn't had one since Opening Day. The best angle to take in this bullpen may be to hold/acquire Sims prior to his activation from the injured list. He's on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Louisville and could return at some point this week. Sims may not immediately step into the closer role, so rostering him may require the ability to take on a stash. Sims: 12-team mixed: $1, 15-team mixed: $3, 12-team NL: $4; Warren: 12-team mixed: $1, 15-team mixed: $2, 12-team NL: $4  

Dylan Floro, Miami

Floro has begun throwing bullpen sessions and looks likely to take up a rehab assignment soon. Anthony Bender has had an inconsistent start to the season producing two saves, but also surrendering an earned run in each his other two appearances. It's possible he maintains the role even when Floro returns, but the latter is a worthwhile bench stash since he's projected to be back soon. 12-team mixed: $0, 15-team mixed: $1, 12-team NL: $2

Jake McGee, San Francisco 

Manager Gabe Kapler isn't making it easy to figure out what is going on with the closer situation in San Francisco. Just when it appeared Camilo Doval had the role in his grasp, McGee picked up his first save of the season Saturday night. He allowed a hit and a walk, but worked around the baserunners. It could be weeks before McGee gets his next save chance, or he could earn another one Sunday. 12-team mixed: $1, 15-team mixed: $2, 12-team NL: $4   

Catcher 

Tomas Nido, New York  

James McCann has gotten off to a slow start with the bat, and Nido is nearly at a 50/50 playing-time split behind the plate. He lists a career 52 wRC+ and .242 wOBA, so this is strictly to plug a player into an otherwise empty roster slot. 12-team mixed: No, 15-team mixed: No, 12-team NL: $1

Andrew Knapp, Pittsburgh 

Roberto Perez is banged up with a quadriceps injury, but is expected to return to the lineup Sunday. If that doesn't occur as expected, Knapp would be in line for a heavy workload for Pittsburgh. Even if Perez comes back, Knapp may split time more evenly behind the plate in an effort to preserve both players' health. 12-team mixed: No, 15-team mixed: No, 12-team NL: $1

First Base

Daniel Vogelbach, Pittsburgh

Vogelbach is on the strong side of a platoon and leads off against right-handed pitching in Pittsburgh. While nothing much has been produced early on, he should provide plenty of runs scored thanks to a career .336 OBP with some decent power. 12-team mixed: No, 15-team mixed: $1, 12-team NL: $3

Second Base

Brandon Drury, Cincinnati 

Drury has started in place of Jonathan India (hamstring), who was out both Friday and Saturday. India hasn't been placed on the IL as of yet, but Drury will become an everyday player if he does miss extended time. 12-team mixed: No, 15-team mixed: $1, 12-team NL: $3

Shortstop 

Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona  

Perdomo has taken over the starting shortstop role in Arizona in the absence of Nick Ahmed (shoulder). He's gone .063 across 24 plate appearances, yet has been a bit more palatable in OBP leagues by taking six free passes. And Perdomo has also stolen a base. Ahmed has been taking at-bats at Arizona's spring training facility, so Perdomo's role may not last much longer. 12-team mixed: No, 15-team mixed: $0, 12-team NL: $1 

Alan Trejo, Colorado 

Jose Iglesias is tending to a hamstring issue that kept him out of the lineup both Friday and Saturday. Reports indicate he won't be placed on the injured list, but Trejo would be the playing time beneficiary if there is any hint of that changing. 12-team mixed: No, 15-team mixed: No, 12-team NL: $0

Third Base 

Sergio Alcantara/Yonny Hernandez, Arizona

Arizona is struggling to solve its third-base situation early this year with Josh Rojas sidelined by an oblique injury. With Drew Ellis demoted to Triple-A, Alcantara and Hernandez are in a time share. Neither has experienced much success, though Hernandez offers ability to steal bases. Alcantara: 12-team mixed: No, 15-team mixed: No, 12-team NL: $0; Hernandez: 12-team mixed: No, 15-team mixed: No, 12-team NL: $1

Maikel Franco, Washington 

Franco has the everyday third base job in Washington. He's been buried in the order and has produced little outside of one game where he drove in five. But for those in a tough spot at the position, Franco has a decent batting average floor and should provide some counting stats purely based on volume. 12-team mixed: No, 15-team mixed: $1, 12-team NL: $2

Outfield 

Travis Jankowski, New York

The Mets' outfield is depleted with both Brandon Nimmo and Mark Canha currently on the COVID-19 list. There's no clear timetable for their return, other than when they can provide negative tests. Jankowski has been the playing-time winner early on, with his primary fantasy offering being his potential to produce stolen bases. 12-team mixed: No, 15-team mixed: No, 12-team NL: $0

Odubel Herrera, Philadelphia

Herrera has started a rehab assignment and should take over the center field role in Philadelphia in the near future. He may have been stashed in deeper leagues, but it's worth taking a look over waiver wires. 12-team mixed: $0, 15-team mixed: $3, 12-team NL: $8

Matt Beaty, San Diego 

Wil Myers is dealing with a thumb issue, which has cost him playing time over the weekend series. It's unclear if he'll need a stint on the IL, but Beaty would see an increased role. One note of caution on Beaty is that CJ Abrams has recently played in right field. So if the team wants both Ha-Seong Kim and Abrams in the lineup, Beaty would remain the odd man out. Beaty: 12-team mixed: $0, 15-team mixed: $1, 12-team NL: $3

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dan Marcus
Dan started covering fantasy sports in 2015, joining Rotowire in 2018. In addition to Rotowire, Dan has written for Baseball HQ and Rotoballer.
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