Mound Musings: Trade Deadline Deals Examined

The trade deadline has come and gone, and as always it was quite a ride! We didn't see Shohei Ohtani change uniforms, after the Angels put on a sprint to get into the playoff hunt, but there were enough trades to impact fantasy values. The White Sox were the undisputed fire-sale leaders, gutting their pitching staff, and everybody was looking for pitching – not at all surprising given the many injuries and sub-par performances on the mounds this season – but there wasn't all that much starting pitching available. That didn't slow down all of the contenders. They cleaned out the handful of starters, then went to work in earnest on stockpiling relief arms.

I think teams are again seeing the potential problems that will arise as innings totals accumulate. That is contributing to more injuries, and undoubtedly creating ineffective pitchers who are simply running out of gas. Therefore, while quality was again important, there were some pitchers, both starters and relievers, who were added just to provide innings. Extra arms equal at least some rest for the pitchers you are counting on. That said, let's see how changes in latitudes might impact the key arms involved:

Noah Syndergaard to Cleveland:

Thor moved again as the deadline approached as the Dodgers sent him to Cleveland. He was actually on the injured list when he was dealt, but was activated earlier this week and made his first start for the Guardians. He pitched reasonably well, but unfortunately took a line drive off his leg and left in the sixth inning. Long one of my favorite pitchers, injuries have plagued him for a couple years now. His velocity is down, and he's a shadow of the power pitcher he once was. He recorded no strikeouts in that first start for Cleveland. Maybe he'll make it all the way back, but there's no guarantee at this point.

Lucas Giolito (and Reynaldo Lopez) to Los Angeles (AL) 

The Angels got hot as the deadline approached prompting them to visit the clearance sale in Chicago. Their take was a former star in the making who has generally failed to find that success other than an occasional stretch of solid performances (Giolito) and a decent but not great bullpen arm (Lopez). This will be Giolito's third organization so the question is, can the Angels find the skillset that made him a first-round draft choice back in 2012? This is the classic "changes in latitudes" scenario, so I am tempted to give him the benefit of the doubt, but both teams have struggled to get expected performance.

Lance Lynn (and Joe Kelly) to Los Angeles (NL):

The Dodgers unloaded Syndergaard, then acquired the 36-year-old veteran graybeard Lynn, and bullpen arm Kelly (he's 35 years old). Lynn has never been a favorite of mine, but he moves to an organization known for pitching success. Maybe the Dodgers can coax out a couple more months of productivity. I have doubts (still).

Max Scherzer to Texas:

The migration of old-timers continued with 39-year-old Mad Max moving to Texas. Yes, they are serious about winning right now. Scherzer has been somewhat inconsistent this year, currently maintaining an ERA over 4.00 for the first time since 2011. I guess a little decline can be excused from a longtime star approaching 2,800 innings pitched in MLB, but he can never be taken for granted. When any game is deemed important – like those in a pennant race or the playoffs – Scherzer takes it up a notch or two, or three. We're heading that way, and I'm at plug-and-play status with him.

Jordan Montgomery to Texas:

Much as it might be surprising to like a deal where someone leaves the Cardinals, in some ways I can see this benefitting Montgomery. I have been on his bandwagon for quite some time, and St. Louis should have provided enough to make him a big winner – but it hasn't quite panned out. Despite a fairly respectable 3.42 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP, Montgomery is just 6-9 over his 21 starts in 2023. Now, he benefits from a much better defense, and pitches with a more potent offense behind him so maybe his luck changes. Take a shot, and move him up a notch.

Aaron Civale to Tampa Bay:

I appreciate Civale-type pitchers. He has just modest stuff, and doesn't miss many bats (just 58 strikeouts in 77 innings this year), but he generally gives his team a chance to win. He moves from a team that often does well with starting pitchers to a team that does even better, so I don't see a reason to expect any decline. He has just 13 starts after missing the first couple months with an oblique injury so he should be fresh. A nice addition to the back end of your fantasy rotation.

Rich Hill to San Diego:

Yet another extreme veteran deal. In fact, at 43 years old, the lefty Hill is the oldest player in MLB. He's now been on 13 different teams and has always been known as a clubhouse asset, which I have no doubt contributed to his value. He's a bit too hittable and he doesn't miss enough bats to be a big fantasy asset, but he can help the Padres in a fifth or sixth-starter role, where he can contribute five innings or so. In deep fantasy leagues he could be an option if you can judiciously stream him based on matchups.

Justin Verlander to Houston:

Okay, this one reads like a dime store novel. Scherzer and Verlander were teammates with the Mets. That was a huge disappointment. So Scherzer goes to Texas. On deadline day, with his full no-trade clause in hand, Verlander goes back to AL West division rival Houston (his choice). The two Texas teams are in a red-hot playoff race. Verlander has been on fire the past month or so, and he still has plenty in his 41-year-old tank. The next couple months in the race to the playoffs should be very entertaining.

Michael Lorenzen to Philadelphia:

With the hottest commodity, Verlander, off the board, things got interesting as teams explored alternatives. Lorenzen has had a bit of a hot hand for Detroit, as he has settled into a rotation spot. He has tossed 106 innings, the second-most innings he has compiled since 2015, his first year in MLB. He's a good upgrade over Ranger Suarez in the Phillies rotation, and remains a good back-of-the-rotation fantasy option.

Jack Flaherty to Baltimore:

Maybe I overestimated Flaherty, believing he could take a giant step into the top tier of starting pitchers this season. He has had a mixed season with the Cardinals (a pretty common theme) falling behind in counts, allowing more hits than innings, too many walks, and just the definition of inconsistency. That inconsistency is frustrating. He can look, so dominant at times. Maybe the Orioles can lock that in.

Ryan Yarbrough to Los Angeles (NL):

The Dodgers tried hard to land a big impact starting pitcher. They didn't get Verlander, they didn't get Dylan Cease away from the White Sox, and even though they did negotiate a deal with the Tigers for Eduardo Rodriguez, he invoked his no-trade clause (ummm, I won't comment further on that). They end up with Yarbrough, who is adequate, and most importantly, versatile, being comfortable starting or relieving.

And, in the bullpen, there were several moves of note …

David Robertson to Miami:

Robertson has been relatively steady this season for the Mets, pitching almost exclusively in the eighth and ninth innings, and he should continue in that role for the bullpen-depleted Marlins. While I'm not a big believer in his stuff at this stage of his career, his net fantasy value probably jumps up a notch pitching for a team that smells a possible playoff berth. Experience can pay off.

Kendall Graveman to Houston:

Starting pitching is really hard to find, so teams are also looking for bullpen help. The Astros didn't miss out on the White Sox fire sale, landing a very accomplished setup man in Graveman. He was pushed into the closer's role in Chicago, and he did a respectable job, but the eighth inning is his domain. He should serve in that role with Houston, but he'll probably also fill in if needed in the ninth.

Jordan Hicks to Toronto:

Hicks has a huge arm, and he was pretty much able to find the strike zone (often a challenge in his career) when asked to step in for injured Cards closer Ryan Helsley. Different town, different league, likely same role as he should step in for the injured Jordan Romano in Toronto. He has more competition now (Erik Swanson, Yimi Garcia and maybe Nate Pearson), but he just needs to continue throwing strikes.

Taylor Hearn to Atlanta then to Kansas City:

I'm including Hearn in the potentially impactful deadline deals because he was actually involved in two deadline trades. He has a career 5.26 ERA across 93 MLB appearances including a dismal 14.73 in five relief appearances this year. So why the interest? He has considerably better stuff than those numbers indicate. I'm not suggesting you rush to the waiver wire to grab him, but keep the name on your radar.

Paul Sewald to Arizona:

Sewald has always looked more like a premier setup guy to me, but he has served as the closer in Seattle for quite a bit of the last couple seasons. Now he moves to Arizona where there is virtually nothing blocking his way to the ninth inning after several arms have flopped in the role. I expect him to be solid, albeit not spectacular, in the desert.

Brad Hand to Atlanta:

Hand adds left-handed depth to the Atlanta 'pen and will probably pitch primarily in the middle innings, sometimes going more than one inning. But his fantasy value is likely limited to the occasional hold. That said, the Braves' brain-trust continues to impressively maneuver into World Series favorites.

Andrew Chafin to Milwaukee: 

This one was initially a headscratcher. I'm not sure why the Diamondbacks, clearly in the playoff hunt, decided to part with a veteran lefty reliever. He's not a dominant force, but he's useful in situational relief, which is what he figures to provide with the Brewers. 

Peter Strzelecki to Arizona:

Well, this might provide some insight into the Diamondbacks dealing Chafin to the Brewers. Strzelecki has done a respectable job splitting time between Milwaukee and Triple-A Nashville. I believe DBacks pitching coach Brent Strom influenced this acquisition, and pretty much everything he touches turns to gold. Monitor him.

Keynan Middleton to New York (AL):

The Yankees acquired Middleton from the White Sox to reinforce their bullpen. He pitched adequately with Chicago, even saving a couple games to go with five holds over the first half of the year. He could see an occasional hold chance, but his fantasy value in most leagues that don't count holds has probably evaporated.

Scott Barlow to San Diego:

In a last-minute deal, the Padres acquired Barlow from the Royals to reinforce their already-deep bullpen. He pitched well in previous seasons with Kansas City before struggling this year. He has saved 56 career games including 13 over the first half of this year, but save chances going forward are likely a pipe dream.

Endgame Odyssey:

The post-deadline Odyssey has a few closer questions to explore beyond those mentioned above. These are mostly looking for the new closer on teams where the presumptive closer departed. In St. Louis, with Hicks gone to Toronto, there is a vacancy. Hopefully Ryan Helsley will be back off the IL around the middle of the month, but until then it could be Giovanny Gallegos or a guy I like a bit (and he already logged a save), JoJo Romero. With Paul Sewald moving to Arizona, Andres Munoz should get first call in Seattle. He has plenty of arm, and could be a top-tier closer if he stays healthy and settles in. David Robertson is in Miami leaving the Mets with a closer's gig to fill. Brooks Raley has been the guy so far, and the southpaw fits fairly well, but I think Adam Ottavino could sneak into the mix, too. The White Sox definitely emptied the pitching cupboard – both starters and relievers – and Liam Hendriks is now lost for now and most of 2024. So, look for a committee led by Gregory Santos, and maybe Aaron Bummer. And, with Barlow heading to San Diego, someone will likely need to pitch an occasional high -everage ninth inning. The most obvious choice is fireballer Carlos Hernandez with Taylor Clarke probably being plan B.