Mound Musings: A Look at Pitching in the NL Central

Back to the National League, it's time to have a look at the NL Central. For the most part there are quite a few ho-hum pitchers, but there are a couple worth looking at with gusto. Last week we looked at the AL West and for the next three weeks, I'll continue to throw some names out there for your consideration, covering one division each week. When the dust settles, we should be looking at Opening Day, and hopefully have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2025 season. We're passing halfway home, as we look at the:

National League Central

Chicago Cubs – The Cubs will enter 2025 with a deeper pitching staff than they fielded in 2024, and they benefit from pitching in front of one of the better defenses in baseball. I loved Justin Steele, and he really broke out in 2023. I was looking for more in '24, but while he pitched pretty well, he was dinged up on and off all year. They also added Shota Imanaga, who turned out to be a co-No. 1. I am not ready to jump on his bandwagon completely, but he's a solid contributor. I think Jameson Taillon fits perfectly as their No. 3 and should also be a solid performer. I see things falling off a bit here. With Matthew Boyd, a true journeyman arm like his can be vulnerable because he doesn't have the raw stuff to overcome mistakes or off days. That first four aren't bad, but I think my biggest concern would again be the last couple rotation slots. I think Jordan Wicks is the likely fifth starter (not horrible, but he needs to be more consistent), while the alternatives will be Ben Brown, Javier Assad, and/or Colin Rea – none of whom generate much optimism. Their top pitching prospect, Cade Horton, has potential upside, but his 2024 has folks scratching their heads.

The bullpen might again be an area of concern. The Cubs have been collecting relievers, presumably looking for both late-inning help and a closer. I think they might believe Porter Hodge could be the answer in the ninth, but I'm not totally convinced. Just in case, they went out and got Ryan Pressly who has some closing experience.  After that pair things get iffy. Julian Merryweather probably fits best as a set-up guy but he has to stay healthy. The best arm in the pen belongs to Nate Pearson, trouble is, he hasn't really looked much like a closer. So, who's in the late-innings mix? Good question. They have Keegan Thompson and Caleb Thielbar who could be possibilities, but they both get pretty shaky at times. Maybe newcomer Eli Morgan can give them some quality innings, or a bit of a sleeper, Gavin Hollowell, might carve out some critical frames.

Recapping the Cubs:

The arm to roster: Taillon could be a top-of-the rotation type if he could stay healthy.

He'll likely be overpriced: Boyd might draw attention, but don't break the budget.

Best of the bullpen: Hodge looks like the guy, but I question his long-term success.

Cincinnati Reds – The Reds would like to believe the future is today, and their best kid pitchers are learning on the job. Big Hunter Greene deservedly gets a lot of ink. He has one of the biggest arms in baseball and clearly has considerable potential, so while command of his secondary pitches can be spotty, and his fastball can be a bit straight, his chances of eventually being a true top-of-the-rotation starter are bright. Interestingly, I actually like Nick Lodolo just about as much. He has a very good arm too, albeit not like Greene, and in some ways, he is ahead of Greene in terms of development. He has dealt with an ongoing leg injury, but will hopefully be healthy in April, and don't forget Nick Martinez. He's one of those guys who turned his career around in Japan. Cincinnati is not the most pitcher-friendly environment, but I also like newcomer Brady Singer. He's adjusting his pitch mix and he's my pick to take a step forward. The rest of the rotation is filled with pitchers who display both positives and negatives. Cincinnati is going to war with a back-of-the-rotation possibly including Andrew Abbott or maybe Graham Ashcraft who is mediocre. Youngster Rhett Lowder, or veteran journeyman Wade Miley are dealing with minor injuries, but they could also be among those looking for a rotation spot. Pennants (and Roto titles) are made of better. 

The Reds' bullpen does have a top-shelf arm in closer Alexis Diaz (Edwin's younger brother) who jumped up a couple tiers in 2022. The problem with the bullpen has been a lack of reliable depth, leaving things unsettled behind Diaz. They are trying. They still have veteran Emilio Pagan who should help, and recently acquired lefty Taylor Rogers. Thinking pure stuff, Josh Staumont is probably the guy I like best on this staff after Diaz, and he could be pitching in the eighth inning this year. However, he is volatile at times. Add to the mix, Tony Santillan, Ian Gibaut, Scott Barlow and perhaps Sam Moll. They all occasionally show flashes, but unfortunately it's only occasionally.

 Recapping the Reds:

The arm to roster: Lodolo could be a nice price on draft day. He's on his way up.

He'll likely be overpriced: Ashcraft got some attention, but I still don't see it.

Best of the bullpen: I like Diaz a lot. They just need to get the game to him.

Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers were once led by an overwhelming rotation led by aces Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, but subtract those two (Burnes is in Arizona and Woodruff was hurt all of 2024), and what's left? Next up is Freddy Peralta. He has pitched fairly well, but may be miscast as the "ace" of the staff. He'd fit a lot better as a three in my eyes. Nestor Cortes and Tobias Myers are next in line and both have some upside. Maybe Cortes, whom they acquired from the Yankees, can rise to the occasion. He has shown flashes. Aaron Civale, and Aaron Ashby look to be next in line, but they profile as true fifth starter types. They also have a young DL Hall who came over in a trade, and while he is unproven, he might have the most upside on the staff after Peralta. They hope to have him back from a lat injury for spring training. The rotation fillers look like Tyler Alexander or Chad Patrick who enjoyed a solid season at Triple-A last year. Maybe their top pitching prospect, Jacob Misiorowski, will develop quickly. They need someone to step up or it could be a relatively long year.

On any given day there is some hope when discussing the Brewers' bullpen. Last season's stud Devin Williams is gone. So now we take a step back to Abner Uribe, Joel Payamps, Bryan Hudson, Nick Mears and Trevor Megill. They are adequate and will share set-up innings. However, at least one needs to step up and handle closing duties. My guess is that will likely be Megill.

Recapping the Brewers:

The arm to manage: I'm hoping Woodruff comes back to full strength. Have a Plan B.

He'll likely be overpriced: I think Peralta is miscast as an ace. Don't overpay.

Best of the bullpen: Megill gets the edge, but I don't see him as a standout.

Pittsburgh Pirates – I have developed a habit of being outspoken. Here I go again. The Pirates have the best pitcher in the game today, and his name is Paul Skenes. Skenes defies description, but if I can have the first pitcher off the board, he belongs to me. They have another top-of-the-rotation guy (not in Skenes' league). Perhaps Mitch Keller can eventually perform consistently more often. Keller has No. 1 stuff and impressive minor league credentials, but his performance with the big club has been shaky due to frequent lapses in command. I'm still inclined to give him time to get it all together, but until he does, he's risky. Their No. 3 was something of a surprise last year so they hope Jared Jones can repeat. A late signing of Andrew Heaney helps fill the gap here. Their top kid, Bubba Chandler probably slots in as their No. 5, and he has the stuff to make that work. Just be ready to give him some room for kid shenanigans. After Skenes they aren't aces, but they can still pitch moderately well at times (when healthy). Now we delve into some more fringe guys like Bailey Falter, (slight edge) and Johan Oviedo who will likely handle the spot starts on this staff. They offer marginal value in none but the deepest leagues right now, but both could step it up. The depth of the rotation after that will mostly comprise kids like Mike Burrows, Thomas Harrington and Braxton Ashcraft. They are all a possibility if things get bumpy during the season, so keep tabs on them.

The Pirates' bullpen resembles the starting rotation in many ways – nobody really stands out except closer David Bednar. To be honest, I'm a little surprised he is still there, but he will again be first in line for saves. They also have a large but certainly capable support group including Dennis Santana who could grab the odd save but will mostly be counted on to set-up Bednar. Colin Holderman (appropriate name), a nice lefty, Ryan Borucki, Caleb Ferguson, Carmen Mlodzinski, and another southpaw, Tim Mayza all should see plenty of work behind that rotation. A final consideration would be a serious dark horse. Tahnaj Thomas caught my eye a couple years ago. He has a lively high 90s fastball and a good slider. They were trying to develop him as a starter, but he never found a reliable off-speed pitch, so he's in the pen now.

Recapping the Pirates:

The arm to manager: Keller has some upside, but the guy I have to own is Skenes.

He'll likely be overpriced: Jones could be a candidate to backslide a bit.

Best of the bullpen: Bednar is a good one when healthy assuming he isn't dealt.

St. Louis Cardinals – We'll wrap up our analysis of the NL Central with a look at the St. Louis Cardinals pitching staff. This is a tough division. In some ways I could see them winning it, but it wouldn't surprise me if they finished last. Staff leader Sonny Gray has raw stuff that is already dominating at times, and I look for a big year from him. I think the most likely No. 2 will be Miles Mikolas. A very big bounce-back season from him is critical to solidify the rotation, and I think/hope we'll see just that. He can look so good at times. Next, let's check in on two capable arms that were added to the staff. Erick Fedde came over in a trade last August, and Andre Pallante split time between St. Louis and Triple-A Memphis. They don't have the raw stuff of aces, but they might be competent to provide innings, and that is what the Cardinals are hoping for. The five spot should be the property of either Quinn Mathews, Steven Matz, the versatile Zack Thompson, or eventually, the young Matthew Liberatore. I like Mathews best long term, as Matz struggles to stay healthy, and Thompson is better-suited to long relief.

I don't think the question is who will close for the Cardinals. I'm reasonably certain that gig belongs to flamethrower Ryan Helsley. He led MLB in saves last year with 49. My pick for top set-up guy is pretty solid with JoJo Romero, but it gets thin in a hurry after him. The list of options is pretty long, and I think pretty sketchy. Probably top of the list is Ryan Fernandez, John King and holdover Kyle Leahy, but none in that group stands out, so the Cardinals might need to find some bullpen help, and soon.

Recapping the Cardinals:

The arm to own: I'm betting on a big come-back year from Mikolas.

He'll likely be overpriced: I'm avoiding Fedde who may struggle at times.

Best of the bullpen: Helsley looks like he'll be a closer for the long term.

Next week we'll look at the AL Central.