Mound Musings: 2021 First-Year Player Draft Edition

This is always a highlight of the season for me. Draft day always brings an influx of new, and hopefully, exciting arms into professional baseball and into the spotlight for fantasy baseball junkies like us. I'm not crazy about having draft day and the Future's Game on the same day. I'd prefer to spread out the fun across multiple days. However, as usual, I settled in the other night with iced tea and snacks, notebook in hand, and a list of pitchers I wanted to check in on. Where would they go? What would the film clips show? What would other analysts have to say? What a night, right? Obviously, this is focused on keeper and dynasty formats, but some of the top guys will be on redraft fantasy draft boards sooner than you might think.

Some general observations from Draft Day

Most analyst saw this year's draft as a bit "top heavy" meaning there were several prospects with similar expectations, but then a more speculative gap as you got further into the draft. With pitching, especially with regard to college pitchers, I thought this to be the case, but I thought it was perhaps a bit deeper with regard to high school arms. While I don't immediately see a standout generational talent in this year's draft, there are a few, two in particular, who could approach that upside. High school arms, even the really good ones, have always been considered risky, and I think that continues to be a factor. There are injury risks, and the challenge of accurately predicting the ultimate ceiling of a younger pitcher, so many teams focus on the top college prospects unless they feel they can compete right now. Besides, with an increasingly shallow pool of quality pitchers at the MLB level, teams desperately seeking help on the mound want that help as soon as possible, and, obviously, college arms are closer.

It's my opinion that the current trend in the approach to pitching is now becoming ever more prominent in both the high school and college pitchers arriving on draft day. Everyone looks for velocity, with a hard slider often next on the list, so a pitching prospect with a more advanced repertoire often moves that guy higher on my list. Don't get me wrong, I love the big arms too, but a reliable change-up and/or curveball, with some command usually draws my immediate attention. And, perhaps I'm just hoping, but teams might be starting to reconsider neglecting the finer points of the pitching profession. I really hope we see actually learning the art brought back.

Okay, let's take a look at the cream of the 2021 draft class.

Here are a few higher-ceiling arms I think you should add to your watch list:

• Jack Leiter (Texas Rangers – Second overall) – Every year I look at the pitching prospects most analysts see as the top of the class to see if I agree with their assessments. Sometimes I agree. Sometimes not. I can't find fault in this one. Leiter has the pedigree (his father was a successful pitcher in MLB for years) but, more importantly, he has the tool box. He's just a sophomore in college, but pitching for Vanderbilt, he saw the best college baseball talent in the country. That equates to probably High-A minor league ball, and he was nothing short of dominant. He has a well-developed four-pitch mix, highlighted by a 70-grade fastball with movement, and he throws everything for strikes. I don't see a lot of room for improvement to be honest, but he may not need it. His mound presence and competitiveness are also pluses so he could be in Texas relatively soon.
• Jackson Jobe (Detroit Tigers – 3rd overall) – Jobe is the one arm I felt could push Leiter for the top spot. I normally downgrade high school pitchers a bit because even with a lot of positives, their age and experience level can make them pretty difficult to project. In Jobe's case I found myself marking him up, because, quite frankly, he looks like a college pitcher. The key word there is "pitcher," as he is clearly not a simple, out-of-your-shoes flamethrower. He has a solid mid-90s fastball (potentially less risk of major arm problems), but his breaking pitches – a wipeout slider and a nasty curve – are what he's all about. There are signs of a solid change, too, but he needs to develop it more, as he had no real need to use it against the hitters he has been facing (he allowed one earned run while logging 122 strikeouts in 52 innings his senior year). He has a higher ceiling than Leiter. That is offset by the risk factors associated with his age, but he could be worth the risk.
• Gunnar Hoglund (Toronto Blue Jays – 19th overall) – I thought Hoglund was the one other pitcher who could slip into the same group as Leiter and Jobe, but, unfortunately, Tommy John surgery this May intervened. That said, the Jays grabbed him at No. 19 knowing he wouldn't throw a single pitch for their organization until late next summer at the earliest. He has a solid array of pitches including a fastball, slider and change-up, but what also catches my eye is an unusual delivery. He's 6'4" and comes almost straight over the top, yet he repeats the motion very well and maintains excellent movement to complement that deceptive delivery. Assuming all goes smoothly with his surgery rehab, he is advanced enough in his development to move up rather quickly.
• Gavin Williams (Cleveland Indians – 23rd overall) – He didn't have a lot of innings at East Carolina while in college, just 149 over his career, but he did flash some pretty impressive stuff, and he gets a bump for going to an organization that has shown success in developing young arms. Williams has good size at 6'6" and 230 pounds. He features a standard four-pitch mix, and his fastball sits upper 90s but has touched triple digits, however his delivery is fairly free and easy, so I hope he will able to improve his command (it was better this season). Nothing really jumps out at you, so right now he looks like perhaps a middle-of-the-rotation guy, but we've said that about Cleveland pitching projects before. If he can stay healthy, and they can refine his motion enough to lock in his release point, he could be something of a steal in this draft class.
• Will Bednar (San Francisco Giants – 14th overall) – Here's another young arm going to an organization known for turning good young arms into very productive starting pitchers. Right now he is more of a two-pitch pitcher with a nice riding fastball in the mid 90s and an even better plus-plus slider with a lot of bite. He has shown some ability to throw both a curve and change-up, but we'll call them works in progress for now. He has an older brother (David) pitching pretty successfully out of the Pirates bullpen, so I'm sure he's used to some friendly family competitiveness, and he clearly knows how to step it up when it counts as demonstrated by his victory with Mississippi State over Vanderbilt in this year's College World Series. A lot will depend on improving his secondary pitches.
• Andrew Painter (Philadelphia Phillies – 13th overall) – Another nice, solid, projectable high school arm  His fastball sits low-mid 90s, but his calling card is a fairly well developed change-up, a very big plus for a high school kid. Hmmm. Are we perhaps noticing a trend here? Mid 90s fastball, somewhat developed off-speed stuff, and the ability to throw strikes. Maybe analysts looked at this as mediocre class because not enough of the arms could hit 103 mph? Maybe baseball programs are seeing the value in teaching pitchers to pitch? There could be hope for our sport yet. Anyway, there is the risk of him being a high school kid, but he appears to have the base for a solid foundation if he can just stay healthy, and continue to develop at the professional level.

There were a other pitchers worth monitoring – guys like high schooler Chase Petty (26th overall to the Twins), Sam Bachman (9th overall to the Angels), Jordan Wicks (21st overall to the Cubs), Jaden Hill (44th overall to the Rockies) and Frank Mozzicato (7th overall to the Royals) who were all borderline considerations for inclusion in my top pitchers in the draft. I was already watching Kumar Rocker (10th overall to the Mets), Michael McGreevy (18th overall to the Cardinals), and Calvin Ziegler (46th overall to the Mets) who are three more big arms going to excellent developmental organizations, which makes them even more interesting in my book.  

And, here's one more interesting little sidelight on this year's draft. The Angels had 20 picks, and took pitchers with all 20 selections. I don't think that has ever happened before. I guess they are taking "need pitching" seriously.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Just before the break, Miami's Pablo Lopez set a major league record by striking out the first nine hitters he faced in a game against the Braves. Interestingly, he did not register another strikeout over his next three innings. The Marlins remain competitive almost exclusively because of their quality young starters.
• It seems like a very long time since Boston's Chris Sale has taken the mound, but he's getting close. He's one of my all-time favorites, but I have to remind myself he probably won't be the ace we know and love right out of the gate, and the Red Sox are likely to monitor his innings very closely for a while.
• The last time the Diamondbacks won a game started by a pitcher not named Merrill Kelly was June 1 (they beat the Mets 6-5 in 10 innings in a game started by Caleb Smith). They have also generated just two save chances over those six weeks. The desert isn't the place to look for pitching help right now.
• That said, maybe Toronto is. Robbie Ray has always been a pretty good source of strikeouts, but they typically came with a lot of walks and a high WHIP/ERA. I have watched a few of his outings this season, and he hits his spots pretty consistently, so I think I'm ready to buy in on him going forward.
• Yu Darvish was placed on the injured list with what is being termed "left hip inflammation." Like most lower-body injuries, this can potentially be mechanically devastating, so the Padres have to hope it won't be a lingering concern, and he'll be able to return to the rotation shortly after the regular season resumes.

Endgame Odyssey:

Things are so shaky in the Philadelphia bullpen, Ranger Suarez recorded a seven out save. It's almost as if, "you're in there until you give up some runs or the game ends, whichever comes first." I'm staying away. The Yankees need Aroldis Chapman back on track. Just before heading out on the All-Star break, Domingo German and, more notably Chad Green, melted down to blow a five-run led in the ninth inning. Ouch. I think it's likely to be a short term thing, just until Tejay Antone and Lucas Sims are back, but Heath Hembree picked a good time to get on a bit of a roll.