This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB World Series Game 5 Best Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Wednesday, October 30
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2024 Postseason Betting Record: 3-3 (-0.18 RW Bucks)
2024 Postseason Props Betting Record: 3-3 (+0.66 RW Bucks)
The Yankees managed to stave off elimination Tuesday night, with their resounding victory building a bridge to another Gerrit Cole start Wednesday. The pitching matchup is a rematch of a memorable Game 1 that Freddie Freeman sealed for the Dodgers with an iconic grand slam, adding to the intrigue of a second straight potential elimination game.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees Best Bets
While the Dodgers' current 3-1 series advantage implies dominance to a certain degree, the only lopsided game thus far was the Yankees' Game 4 victory. New York's bats finally came alive Tuesday, compiling 11 runs with the help of an Anthony Volpe grand slam and a three-run homer by Gleyber Torres. In the process, the Dodgers used four pitchers overall – three of them tossed at least 43 pitches – setting up some potential depth issues behind starter Jack Flaherty on Wednesday.
The first three games of the series were all winnable for New York had its bats shown just a bit more life and an ability to deliver in key moments. The Yankees went a combined 4-for-20 with runners in scoring position in that first trio of contests, squandering strong performances by their starters and bullpen in losses of 6-3 (with four of the Dodgers' runs coming on Freeman's 10th-inning grand slam), 4-2 and 4-2.
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This series was projected to be much closer coming in given the similarities in talent level and each team's identical 98-64 regular-season record. As illustrated, the first three installments were indeed that close, but I'm backing the idea of the Yankees' breakthrough Tuesday night having a favorable psychological carryover in front of the home crowd for Game 5. Additionally, the presence of Cole on the mound naturally only ups the favored Yankees' chances, given his career 11-6 record, 2.91 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 126.2 career postseason innings.
Cole pitched very well in Game 1, allowing just one earned run on four hits over six innings. Flaherty certainly kept pace for the most part (5.2 innings, five hits, two earned runs, one walk, six strikeouts), but the veteran right-hander had allowed eight runs over three innings against the Mets in Game 5 of the National League Championship Series (NLCS) and four runs over 5.1 innings in a National League Division Series (NLDS) start versus the Padres as well. Flaherty has also surrendered a .293 average and .891 OPS to current Yankees bats over his career.
I see Cole stepping up in this do-or-die scenario as he's so often done when the Yankees have needed a win while Flaherty comes back down to earth a bit in his second go-around with this lineup, guiding my three bets.
MLB Picks for Dodgers vs. Yankees
- Yankees Moneyline (-144 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Yankees -0.5 F5 (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Gerrit Cole Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-128 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
