This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Betting Picks Today: Free MLB Picks and Props for Tuesday, May 23
Season: 26-42 -31.11 units
Prior Article: 2-2 -0.96 units
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**This has been the toughest stretch of baseball handicapping I have had ever and I needed to rethink my strategy here. There will be a total of three to four plays and only 1 max plays per game along with just one net unit. I have not changed my analysis process over the last three seasons, but I have started to place multiple plays on the same game and too many units chasing losses, which has hurt me. Time to play tight and reel things in.
Toronto Blue Jays 
at Tampa Bay Rays 
The Rays are 22-4 SU at home for a whopping 16.05 units and 32.7% ROI which leads all of baseball. The Jays are just 12-14 on the road, 3-7 in their last 10, and 7-13 in their last 20. Getting the Rays this cheap at home seems criminal, especially with Jose Berrios on the mound for the Jays. Even though he has pitched better as of late, the Rays run differential at home is too great to ignore in this spot (5.8 runs vs. 2.8).
MLB Best Bets for Jays at Rays
- Rays ML for 1.25 unit (DraftKings -125)
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Texas Rangers 
at Pittsburgh Pirates 
The Pirates got off to a hot start going 20-8, but are just 5-14 in their last 19 and appear to be coming back to earth. Their offense is hitting just .211 in that stretch with an on-base percentage of .293, and a slugging percentage of .312. In their last 19 games, they have only scored at least 4 runs in 4 games while seeing their team total go 2-8 in their last 10 (8-15 on the season).
Nathan Eovaldi has been a top 3 pitcher in baseball with a 2.0 WAR and 2.83 ERA, 61 strikeouts, and 10 walks.
MLB Best Bets for Rangers at Pirates
- Pirates UNDER 3.5 runs for 1.32 unit (FanDuel -132)
San Diego Padres 
at Washington Nationals 
The Nationals have surprisingly overachieved with a 20-27 record (.425) so far as they were expected to be more in the 33-37 win percent range. They have hit well against left-handed pitching (141 wRC+) at home, but struggle against righties with a 69 wRC+ at home. The Nats have also feasted on bad pitching as their numbers vs. power pitchers are just a .181 batting average vs. .284 against finesse pitchers.
Yu Darvish is definitely a power pitcher and has pitched well this year going 48 innings with a 3.50 ERA, 53 strikeouts, 16 walks, and just 5 home runs allowed (3 in one game to the Giants).
On the flip side, the Padres offense has been putrid and their totals are on an alarming UNDER rate going 8-1 in their last 9, 4-14-2 on the road, and 14-31-2 overall.
MLB Best Bets for Padres at Nationals
- Padres/Nationals UNDER 8 runs for 1.10 units (DraftKings -110)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Rays ML for 1.25 unit (DraftKings -125)
- Pirates UNDER 3.5 runs for 1.32 unit (FanDuel -132)
- Padres/Nationals UNDER 8 runs for 1.10 units (DraftKings -110)
