MLB Picks Today: Expert MLB Bets for Sunday, September 18
Last Article's Record: 2-1, +1.00 units
Season Record: 73-72, +4.67 units
Texas Rangers 
at Tampa Bay Rays 
Rays starter Jeffrey Springs has been great all year (2.41 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) and comes into this game having not been scored on in any of his last three starts. He's also been much better at home, with his ERA a full run lower in Tampa (1.80 ERA at home, 2.88 ERA on the road). Today he faces Rangers starter Glenn Otto, who consistently gives up two or three runs per start while rarely getting much past the 5-inning mark. It seems likely that Springs can hold the Rangers down today, and he figures to leave this game with a lead as long as the Rays can score the normal handful of runs on Otto. Good spot for the Rays, who still have a lot to play for as they occupy one of the three AL Wild Card spots (along with Toronto and Seattle).
MLB Best Bets for Rangers at Rays
- Tampa Bay Rays F5 -0.5, -122
Philadelphia Phillies 
at Atlanta Braves 
Braves starter Spencer Strider is clearly a strikeout machine, but he seems to be more effective at home, now having covered this number in five of his last six home starts (including a 13-strikeout effort over these same Phillies). There's little reason not to play this one, as the Braves are locked into a fierce division battle with the Mets and seem unlikely to pull Strider early (something to keep in mind with most young pitchers this time of year as teams try to manage their innings).
MLB Best Bets for Phillies at Braves
- Spencer Strider over 7.5 strikeouts, -125
Baltimore Orioles 
at Toronto Blue Jays 
Orioles starter Dean Kremer hasn't been particularly sharp of late, allowing 23 baserunners and seven earned runs over his last three starts (16.1 innings). By contrast, Alek Manoah seems to be rounding back into form after a tough month of August and has now gone six or more innings in each of his last five starts (including eight innings of one-run ball in Baltimore a couple of weeks ago). He also owns a 2.92 ERA vs. the Orioles over a pretty good sample (24.2 innings over four starts, including a couple of wins). Additionally, the Blue Jays are hot at the moment, having gone 7-3 over their last 10 games, and 15-5 over their last twenty. Seems a logical spot for the excellent Manoah to pitch into the 7th inning (or thereabouts) and pick up his third win over the O's.
MLB Best Bets for Orioles at Blue Jays
- Alek Manoah to record a win, +110
Oakland Athletics 
at Houston Astros 
Framber Valdez might be my favorite player to bet wins with, as he's probably the most consistent pitcher in the game, has a great offense and strong bullpen backing him up and generally isn't given the credit from linemakers that he deserves. He has now gone six or more innings in an astounding 24 consecutive starts, and most recently threw a complete-game shutout over the Tigers. He's also been brilliant against Oakland this year, compiling a 1.59 ERA over 17.0 innings with only six hits allowed. With the Astros a prohibitive -330 favorite at home, let's shave that price way down and take Framber to record the win at a very reasonable price.
MLB Best Bets for Athletics at Astros
- Framber Valdez to record a win, -130
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Tampa Bay Rays F5 -0.5, -122
- Spencer Strider over 7.5 strikeouts, -125
- Alek Manoah to record a Win, +110
- Framber Valdez to record a Win, -130
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