This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
The College Baseball season was a good one, but now with the 2023 campaign in the books, it's time to refocus on the MLB. Although I took a little time off over the last six weeks, I've kept up with what's going on around the big league diamond. There are a few spots we can take advantage of on Tuesday night.
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Minnesota Twins (+134) vs. Atlanta Braves (-158) | Over/Under 9
One of the premier matchups this evening takes place between a couple of first-place teams. The Atlanta Braves are running away with the NL at the moment, while Minnesota is clinging to their short lead in the AL Central as a .500 ball club. There's one reason to like the Twins, and his name is Joe Ryan.
Aside from a couple of outings where he got his teeth kicked in, Ryan has been aces in 2023. In addition to a strong 2.98 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, he's logged 11 quality starts in 15 tries. Although Minny has only won four out of his last 10 starts, Ryan has given his team a chance to win almost every time out. The best news about tonight is he's been great on the road. The splits will tell you his numbers are better at home but, in all fairness, one beatdown at Houston bloated his stats a bit. Ryan has still notched seven quality starts in his eight road tests. Dealing with arguably the best offense in the league, he will have his work cut out for him. One of the main keys to his success has been keeping the walks and homers to a minimum. If that happens, he has a great chance to give his team a chance to win. And it just so happens ATL's offense leads the MLB in round-trippers (141) and is 10th in free passes (268).
If you're Atlanta, Bryce Elder has been a nice surprise in his first full season as a starter. He's picked up the slack for Max Fried's injury quite nicely with his 2.40 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. The former Texas Longhorn has actually been noticeably different at home than on the road. In his own ballpark, he's pitching to a 3.10 ERA and .253 OBA (1.43 ERA and .195 OBA on the road). As a pitcher who only tops out at about 92-93, he relies heavily on contact outs. It just so happens this Twins team strikes out more than anybody (819). For Minnesota to stay in this game, they probably need a couple long balls, one of their offensive strengths (104 HR -7th in MLB).
This game looks like it could come down to the wire if the ball stays in the yard tonight. Two pitchers who are not really plagued by the long ball, nor walks, have a chance to trade blow for blow. Despite how hot the Atlanta offense is, I could definitely see Ryan simmer it down a bit. The total looks way too high in my opinion, but I think it's also a great chance to steal a strong plus money play with Minnesota.
Pick: Twins ML +135
Houston Astros (-112) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-104) | Over/Under 8
This little slate today may or may not feature two of my fantasy pitchers. Both Houston and St. Louis are disappointments at this point in the season. Each team was in the mix to be World Series contenders in the preseason, but neither look like they're ready at the moment. Nevertheless, these teams, especially the Cardinals, look like they may be at a great precipice on whether they decide to keep moving forward or knock it all down. Every game counts from here.
Houston has one of the emerging star pitchers in baseball over the last season and a half in Framber Valdez. Valdez made waves in 2022 because of that ridiculous streak of 24 consecutive quality starts. In 2023, he's challenging the AL field in the Cy Young race as a serious contender for the first time in his career. Although the schedule has been a touch soft lately, it's hard arguing with his 2.27 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, and 12 quality starts out of 15 tries. The Cardinal offense is still the team's strength, but if Valdez dishes out another 6 IP, 2 ER line, I don't know if the pitching will keep up.
The Cards are starting Jordan Montgomery, who has regressed a bit since his late-season success with the team in 2022. With the Astros lineup hitting .254 with a .746 OPS against lefties, I think Montgomery is at a disadvantage tonight. I would expect this to be something of a tight contest, but with the depth Houston has, my edge would have to go to them.
Pick: Astros ML -110
MLB Picks Recap
- Twins ML +135 (DraftKings)
- Astros ML -110 (PointsBet)
