This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
Sometimes you're the bug and sometimes you're the windshield, and my article was a big fat mosquito last week. It was my first 0-4 week of the season, bringing my record to 52-31-2. Weeks like that are inevitable in a 162-game schedule, and I'll just chalk it up to some of the late-season shenanigans. We have less than three weeks remaining in the regular season, and I'm looking to finish the season strong and bounce back from that dud. With that in mind, let's get started with one of the most underrated pitchers in the league!
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Kyle Bradish, BAL vs. PIT: More Than 6.0 Strikeouts
Bradish has only made 10 starts over the last two years, but he's quietly been an ace when he's out there. The former top prospect has a 2.85 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 29 percent strikeout rate since 2023. That includes 15 strikeouts across 10 innings this season and 53 Ks across 39.1 innings last year.
Those absurd averages would make Bradish an intriguing option against anyone, but a home matchup with Pittsburgh is phenomenal. Not only has Camden Yards developed into a pitcher's park, but the Pirates also rank 29th or 30th in runs scored, OPS and wOBA. They also sit 28th in K rate, with six of the last seven opposing starters picking up at least six Ks against them.
Zebby Matthews, MIN at LAA: More Than 5.5 Strikeouts
The baseline numbers from Matthews are nothing special, but this guy has some elite strikeout stuff. The righty has a 27 percent K rate this season and a 26 percent K rate throughout his career. We love that, especially since Matthews is turning his season around, totaling a 3.73 ERA and 9.5 K/9 rate across his last six starts.
Matthews has proven that he can strike out any team, but the Angels are the best matchup in baseball right now. Los Angeles ranks 28th in OBP while posting a 26.5 percent K rate. That's the worst mark in baseball and one of the worst totals in MLB history. He actually struck out five batters across 3.1 relief innings (61 pitches) in a matchup with the Angels last season, but we expect Matthews to throw 90-100 pitches here.
Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. BOS: More Than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (vs. Dustin May)
It's strange to see Kurtz hitting leadoff, but it's a prime spot to clear a prop like this. This rookie has simply been one of the best first basemen in the league, totaling a .402 OBP and 1.037 OPS. Kurtz has been even better with the platoon advantage in his favor, compiling a .455 OBP and 1.191 OPS against right-handers. His recent form is equally as impressive, amassing a .493 OBP and 1.274 OPS across his last 48 fixtures.
Kurtz is a smash play against anyone with statistics like those, but May couldn't be a better matchup. The former Dodger has a 4.96 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. His recent form is even more discouraging, as he's registered an 8.53 ERA and 1.97 WHIP across his last three starts. Showcasing that form in Sacramento is beyond scary, because that's been the most hitter-friendly environment in baseball.
Jakob Marsee, MIA vs. WAS: More Than 6.5 Fantasy Score (vs. Mitchell Parker)
We have a ton of rookies breaking out in the second half, with Marsee looking like the Marlins' best bat. That's why they've been hitting him third, with Marsee maintaining a .394 OBP and .946 OPS. That's backed by an impressive power-speed combo, collecting 14 homers and 14 steals across 98 games at Triple-A.
The most impactful variable here is the matchup with Parker, because he's been one of the worst pitchers in the league. The lefty has a 5.87 ERA and 1.48 WHIP this season while posting a 7.95 ERA and 1.69 WHIP across his last 11 starts. That's two months of pitiful pitching, and we didn't even mention that Marsee gets the platoon advantage from the right side while surpassing this total in 22 of 37 games since his call-up.
