This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
I was really annoyed to go 2-2 last week. One of my defeats was picking Jesus Luzardo to clear his strikeout prop, but he went out and threw seven scoreless innings instead. We would've guaranteed him to clear that total if we knew he was going seven innings, but weird things happen in baseball sometimes. That's actually one of the most difficult parts about this, because predicting good performances doesn't necessarily mean they'll clear the exact statistic we're looking for. In any case, that brings my season record to 42-21-2. That's about as good as I could have hoped, so let's keep that momentum rolling for the final two months!
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Chris Paddack, DET vs. MIN: More Than 17.5 Outs Recorded
Paddack has had one of the most bizarre seasons I've ever seen. He kickstarted the year with a nine-run shelling in his debut but then went on to post a 2.51 ERA and 1.03 WHIP across his next 12 starts. He then went on another seven-start stretch of struggling mightily, but has bounced back with two gems in his two most recent starts. That directly correlates to the trade to Detroit, and Paddack should thrive in a pitcher's park like Comerica for the remainder of the season. He has a 1.50 ERA and 0.58 WHIP across his last two starts, completing at least 18 outs in both of those.
A home matchup with the Twins is the best part of this, though. The season-long statistics from Minnesota don't tell the whole story, because the Twins traded away half of their lineup at the deadline. That's no surprise, since they've scored five or fewer runs in 10 straight games, sitting 21st in OBP, 22nd in runs scored and 20th in wOBA. Those numbers will collapse over the final two months because many of the names in this lineup aren't recognizable. All of that has Paddack entering this matchup as a -170 favorite!
Bryan Woo, SEA vs. CWS: More Than 18.5 Outs Recorded
It's always risky to bet on a pitcher entering the seventh inning, but Woo has been the best inning-eater in the sport this season. This Mariners righty has completed at least six innings in all 21 starts this season. That run is hard to believe, but it's backed by a 3.32 career ERA and 1.01 WHIP. The splits at home are even more stupendous, sporting a 2.61 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in Seattle.
All of that makes Woo a relative lock to complete at least 18 outs, but that should be his floor against one of the worst lineups in baseball. Chicago sits in the bottom five in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA since the start of last year. That's evident in Woo's 1.98 ERA and 0.88 WHIP against the White Sox and why Woo enter this magical matchup as a -260 favorite!
Gunnar Henderson, BAL at PHI: More Than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (vs. Taijuan Walker)
Henderson got off to a slow start this season due to an IL stint, but he's been a superstar in the second half. The MVP candidate from last season has a .318 AVG, .400 OBP, .520 SLG and .920 OPS across his last 52 outings. That's big news since he has some of the best splits in baseball, providing a .386 OBP, .536 SLG and .923 OPS against right-handers this season.
Those splits and recent form make Henderson an easy sell in this spot, because he faces one of the worst pitchers in baseball in one of the most hitter-friendly parks. Walker has a 5.49 ERA and 1.60 WHIP at home since the start of last season while generating a 5.62 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in that span. We've also seen Henderson clear this prop in seven of his last nine games and should get plenty of opportunities in the heart of a lineup that's projected to score nearly five runs!
Freddie Freeman, LAD vs. STL: More Than 7.5 Fantasy Score (vs. Miles Mikolas)
There's no doubt that Freeman has struggled in the second half, but we're seeing some glimpses of a big finish. This perennial All-Star has a multi-hit game in six of his last 12 outings, providing a .453 OBP and 1.078 OPS in that span. That's what we've been accustomed to from this superstar, who sports a .387 career OBP and .897 OPS. His recent splits are even more ridiculous, registering a .405 OBP and .913 OPS against righties over the last three years.
The BvP numbers for Freeman might be the best part of this, as he's posted a .450 AVG, .950 SLG and 1.426 OPS in 21 at-bats against Mikolas! That's terrifying with the way Mikolas has looked the last three years, maintaining a 5.00 ERA in that span. He also has a 5.98 ERA across his last six starts, allowing five runs in each of his last two matchups with the Dodgers.
