This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Picks and Betting Strategy for Wednesday, May 10
As MLB enters the Month of May the have been many accomplishments that no one saw coming prior to the start of the season. The Tampa Rays are at the top of the list sporting an MLB-best 29-8 record (78%) averaging a staggering –185 wager and still making $1800 and a highly profitable 33% ROI for the $100 bettor. They also set more MLB records needing just 37 games to hit 75 home runs and have hit a home run in 22 consecutive road games to start the season. Normally, when a team's performance levels rise to these levels' a regression is expected, but my models do not show any evidence that is imminent.
Bullpen performance levels have become an increasingly important parameter in my model projections and there are a couple of games on the Wednesday slate and beyond that I am betting on. The handicapping process is not simplified by simply betting on the team with the better bullpen only. Teams with struggling bullpens, like the Philadelphia Phillies, who have elite talent, are candidates for a betting opportunity.
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Can the Phillies' Pitching Staff Contain the Blue Jays Offensive Arsenal?
The Toronto Blue Jays love to hit, and they are among the best in many of the meaningful offensive performance measures in MLB this season. They are a gap-to-gap hitting team and rank 5th averaging 1.94 doubles per game. With the new rules forbidding the defensive shift, many of the hitters are now going with where the pitches are thrown. Right-handed batters will slap a pitch that is thrown low and away in the strike zone to right field or into the gap between the centerfielder and the right fielder. This is the main reason the Blue Jays turn their lineup more times than any other team in baseball, averaging 34.6 at-bats per game.
The Phillies lineup, led by reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and Brandon Marsh, is using the same strategy and, despite being two games under.500, is one of the best offenses in baseball on its own merit. They rank 4th with a team batting average of 0.264, ninth averaging 1.l94 doubles per game, and fifth averaging 9.17 hits per game.
Both bullpens have been struggling, but the edge goes to the Phillies, who have a unit with far more talent and will undoubtedly be a force in the coming months. So, it would be a mistake to simply say the Phillies pen is awful with a 5.07 ERA and a 1.484 WHIP on the season. The Blue Jays pen is going to struggle all season and their current 4.07 ERA and 1.226 WHIP is what I expect them to be posting at the end of the season.
The Phillies' bullpen struggles have come largely in road games this season. In 17 home games, their bullpen has posted a 5-2 record, converted six of eight save opportunities, and posted a 2.56 ERA and a 1.184 WHIP spanning 63 1/3 innings of work including 68 strikeouts. Those are the numbers I expect to see this unit post at the end of the season for every game. Specifically, Seranthony Dominguez is monumentally better than his current 5.042 ERA would reflect. We are getting a Phillies team that has a slightly better offense and a bullpen that is severely undersold and, in a bounce-back situation.
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MLB Pick Today
- Phillies ML -108 at FanDuel
A Situational MLB Betting System
The following betting system has produced a 34-16 record for 68% winning bets averaging a +107 wager and producing a 40% ROI over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any NL team in an inter-league matchup that is batting between 0.255 and 0.275 on the season and facing a solid starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or lower and who averages five or fewer strikeouts per start.
Additional MLB Best Bet Opportunity on the Thursday Card
The New York Mets despite their new owner Steve Cohen spending over $800MM in new free agency acquisitions, have played terribly of late and have lost 15 of their last 18 games. An owner may have the financial strength to buy the best and most expensive players on the open market, but unless those players create solid team chemistry, they are not going to win games let alone World Series Championships. The Mets skipper Buck Showalter has his hands full and will have to use all of his vast MLB managerial experience to make this edition a playoff contender.
In this matchup, we are getting the better bullpen and they are priced as the underdog providing for an excellent betting opportunity. The Cincinnati Reds bullpen has been their largest weakness over the past seasons, but this year they are posting a solid 3.79 ERA and 1.315 WHIP including 147 strikeouts over 137 innings of work. The Mets bats have gone silent scoring only 4.3 RPG while batting 0.236 on the season.
A Situational Betting System to Use Every Season
The following situational betting system has only produced 39 betting opportunities over the past five seasons but has recorded a 29-9 record averaging a +135-wager resulting in a highly profitable 74% ROI. The requirements are to bet on home teams in the last game of a series with an offense scoring an average of 4.0 to 4.5 RPG and facing a starter that has a solid ERA of 3.70 or lower on the season. That's all there is to it and reinforces this betting opportunity on the Reds starting Ben Lively over the Mets and their starter Kodai Senga Thursday afternoon with the scheduled first pitch at 12:35 PM EST.
