This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Picks Tonight: MLB Odds, Plays and Predictions for Wednesday, July 26
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Will the Mets or Yankees Make The Postseason?
The Yankees have won just eight of 20 games scoring just 4.1 runs-per-game (RPG) and getting outscored by a whopping 1.5 RPG in games played in July. Their defense ranks fifth-worst during the month of July so even though they are in the playoff race they are just not playing well enough to have a realistic opportunity to win the AL pennant this season. The Yankees would be wise if they became sellers ahead of the trading deadline to free up capital and acquire some Top-100 prospects to replenish a dire farm system.
The Mets have improved their faint hopes of making the playoffs with their record-breaking $365MM payroll winning 11 of 18 games played in July. They have outscored their foes by 0.45 RPG, hit 26 home runs, and rank 7th-best recording eight quality starter. However, their bullpen continues to struggle to allow an average of 2.59 RPG ranking 8th worst in July.
The Mets hammered the hapless and offensively weak NY Yankees and even Shohei Ohtani would be of no help to them given how they have played all season. Still, they are in the AL Wild Card hunt while the Mets remain within ear shout of an NL Wild Card berth. The Mets won 9-3 Tuesday as a -125 road favorite, scored in five innings, and posted three multiple-run innings. The Mets outhit the Yankees 12 to 5 and the Yankees committed two errors.
Teams, like the Yankees, that are coming off a home loss priced as a dog in which the foe scored in at least 5 innings and had three multiple-run innings have bounced back with a 16-9 record averaging a +111 wager for a 34% ROI when facing the same team in the same series.
The Mets are just 4-12 losing 11 units per unit wagered when facing a team that has won between 51 and 5% of their games this season. Moreover, the Mets are just 5-19 as a road underdog and 10-23 losing 21 units when facing a left-handed starter scoring just 3.3 RPG and batting a horrid 0.213 this season.
Check out RotoWire's MLB make playoffs odds page to see the full pricing for each MLB squad.
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Starting Pitching Analysis: Yankees vs Mets
The Yankees will have a solid left-handed starter in left-hander Carlos Rodon, who is 0-3 in three starts with a 7.37 ERA and a 1.432 WHIP overall. He allowed six earned runs in his last start against the LA Angels losing 7-3 so the small sample size does not reflect his talent.
He made his MLB debut back with the Chicago White Sox in 2015 at the age of 22. Since, he has amassed a 56-49 record making 150 starts and five relief appearances with an outstanding 3.66 ERA and 1.242 WHIP striking out 958 batters spanning 862 innings of work. His start tonight will post results similar to or better than his career averages.
The Mets send Jose Quintana to the hill tonight and even the weak Yankee offense should score early and often tonight. He is a veteran of 12 seasons having posted a career 89-88 record with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.277 WHIP in 290 starts and 26 relief appearances for eight different teams. He is making just his second start for the Mets after sustaining a rather serious rib injury in Spring training and is nowhere close to his top form.
The Yankees are a power-first-built type of team and this season's stats clearly confirm that fact. In games I which they have hit two or more home runs they rank best with 35 wins and 6th-best winning 77% of those games on a 35-10 record. In games in which they have hit one or more home runs they rank best with 35 wins and 6th-best winning 77% of those games on a 35-10 record. They rank 24th when hitting one home run and 20th in win percentage on a 14-16 record. The Yankees are tied with the top-ranked home run-hitting team in MLB, with a 15.4% win percentage when hitting no home runs this season, but have hit no home runs in twice as many games (26) as the Braves (13).
Expert Bet for Yankees vs Mets
- Bet The New York Yankees Wednesday Night using the money line (-150 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
