This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Picks for Monday March 31st
Previous article 3-0 (+2.64 units)
Season 6-9 (-3.09 units)
This is the 5th day of the MLB season and you can see the huge difference in pitching on this slate based on the run totals. There are plenty of 8.5's and higher versus what we saw on opening day with 6.5's and mostly 7.5's.
I look for a lot of runs on this slate, and bullpens will be even more of a factor and a big part of my handicapping.
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Observations for today's slate
Road Favorites - Twins -190 at White Sox; Mets -200 at Marlins
Home Favorites (Largest) - Dodgers -220 vs. Braves; Phillies -300 vs. Rockies, Rays -195 vs. Pirates
Totals - Red Sox at Orioles (9.5), Rangers at Reds (9.0), Twins at White Sox (7.5), Tigers at Mariners (7.5)
Line Movement (When heavy favorites lines are moving upward, this is an indication of heavy parlay activity on the money line to get the odds down).
Twins: -158 to -190
Phillies: -260 to -300
Mets :-172 to -200
Rays: -166 to -200
Cardinals: -126 to -152
Dodgers: -198 to -225
Best MLB Bets Today
New York Mets at Miami Marlins Picks
I have seen a few industry folks jumping all over the home dog here, but the Marlins just won a bunch of close games by walkoff, so let's not get too excited. The Marlins are still one of the worst teams in baseball and the Mets offense has gotten off to a slow start.
I still like the Mets in this spot, but only as laying -1.5 runs as we get a total of 8.5. If this game had a total of 7.0 or 7.5 I am backing off. This total is juiced in Miami for a reason (remember its an extreme pitcher's park).
The pitching matchup of David Peterson against Cal Quantrill favors New York as the Mets are 15-5 in his starts since June 4th in 2024. Quantrill's combined numbers from 2023 - 2024 have him with a 5.08 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 48 games started. He is one of the worst pitchers in baseball over that timeframe. He ranks second to last in WAR during that time for pitchers with at least 240 innings pitched.
MLB Best Bet: Mets -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -110)
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Washington Nationals at Toronto Blue Jays Picks
I like the Nationals this season, but not in this spot with Michael Soroka against Bowden Francis. Soroka (much like Quantrill) has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball the last two seasons and his spring training was rough also (7.47 ERA, 13:11 K:BB). The Nationals' bullpen has been torched so far, leaving no angle to get involved with them. Francis is a solid starting pitcher who should be able to work with a lead and get ahead of the Nationals' hitters.
I hate laying -1.5 runs again so we will look at the Jays' team total, especially when the money line is a little more favorable at -160 versus the Mets hovering around -180 on the road.
MLB Best Bet: Blue Jays OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
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Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers Picks
I told you I would pick my spots when I take the Dodgers laying -1.5 at about even money and this is another spot that works with a significant pitching mismatch (Tyler Glasnow versus Grant Holmes). The Braves usually pride themselves on finding and developing pitching, but Holmes is only a placeholder until Spencer Strider comes back.
Holmes is a 29-year-old who made his debut in 2024. He will mostly be used out of the 'pen but can be a spot starter in a pinch. This is a bad spot for him as the Dodgers should crush the weaker right-handed pitchers, especially at home in Dodgers Stadium.
MLB Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -104)
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MLB Picks Recap
- Mets -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -110)
- Blue Jays OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
- Dodgers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -104)
