This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Expert Picks Today: MLB Picks and Props for Sunday, July 16
The last 60 or so games for the 30 MLB teams are underway, marking the home stretch run for the marathon 162-game schedule. Many teams are contending for a wild-card berth and will soon have to make the critical decision to be buyers or sellers ahead of the MLB trade deadline on July 31.
San Diego Padres at 
Philadelphia Phillies
I have focused far more attention on the Philadelphia Phillies and the San Diego Padres this season given their slow starts. The Phillies are right in the thick of the NL wild-card race while the Padres continue to flounder, finding new ways to blow leads and lose games despite the immense amount of talent on their roster. Most recently, the Padres had a lead in both ends of their doubleheader Saturday against the Phillies.
Teams that have won the first game of a doubleheader have gone 106-111 (48 percent) averaging a -103 wager and losing a 7.65 percent ROI over the past five seasons. Doubleheader sweeps are somewhat rare. In fact, teams that had leads in each game of a road double-header, as the Padres had Saturday, are just 6-11, averaging a +111 dog and losing a -31 percent ROI in their next game.
A Profitable Situational Angle: Teams that won both ends of a home double-header who face the same team again the next daya and are favored on the moneyline are 65-33 (a 66 percent win rate), averaging a -155 wager and earning an 11 percent ROI over the past 15 seasons.
I am expecting Bryce Harper to have an MVP-like performance over the remainder of the season, and he has not disappointed. He entered the first game of the twin bill as a pinch hitter and delivered an infield single, sprinting down the baseline with every effort possible. The hit tied up a game in which the Phillies trailed for seven innings and could not muster any scoring threat against starter Blake Snell. Harper started the second game and went 2-for-3 with two walks and hit his first home run in 38 games. He is coming off Tommy John surgery, and much like Shohei Ohtani when he came back from the same surgery, he's required many months to get his power back in his swing.
The Phillies' unconventional leadoff man, Kyle Schwarber, became the first Phillies player since Cookie Rojas (1950s) to hit a home run in both games of a doubleheader. Schwarber is a power hitter and is batting just .189 on the season but leads the team with 23 home runs and 60 walks. His on-base percentage is a solid .318 for the season, and by leading off he gets the extra at-bats late in games where he has been clutch, like yesterday in Game 1 when he hit the game-winning line drive.
On Sunday, the Phillies will look to win the series over the Padres and have their ace Zack Wheeler on the hill, who has posted a 7-4 record in 18 starts with a 3.97 ERA and a 1.179 WHIP, including 22 walks and 118 strikeouts spanning 104.1 innings of work. The All-Star break gave him much-need rest and recovery, so he'll be in top form this afternoon. This will be his 12th day start, in which he is 6-1 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.156 WHIP, allowing only four home runs over 64 innings of work.
MLB Best Bets for Padres at Phillies
- Phillies moneyline (DraftKings -150)
- Bryce Harper over 0.5 doubles (FanDuel +420)
- Trea Turner over 0.5 doubles (FanDuel +350)
Houston Astros at 
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels trailed 9-3, scored six runs in the bottom of the seventh inning to tie the game, then fell behind by three runs before scoring three runs in the bottom of the ninth to send the game to extra innings, where they won in the bottom of the 10th inning. The emotional comeback may be the win that saved the Angels season.
There have been teams in past seasons that have suffered tough losses. However, the best teams are quite resilient and have short memories of recent wins and losses. The Astros are one of those types of teams. Overall, teams that are coming off a loss in which they scored 10 or more runs and are now favored by at least -130 on the money line have produced a 65-19 record, averaging a -161 wager and earning a 27 percent ROI over the past 20 seasons. If that loss was on the road and they are still playing on the road, the record soars to a remarkable 14-1, averaging a -149 wager and earning a 65 percent ROI.
MLB Best Bets for Astros at Angels
- Astros moneyline (Draftkings +130)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Phillies moneyline (DraftKings -150)
- Bryce Harper over 0.5 doubles (FanDuel +420)
- Trea Turner over 0.5 doubles (FanDuel +350)
- Astros moneyline (Draftkings +130)
